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Gas sales will prop up Azerbaijani economy – S&P

JULY 27 (The Bulletin) — Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, said that extra gas sales from the Caspian Sea project Shah Deniz 2 will push up Azerbaijan’s GDP over the next few years, countering the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It predicted GDP growth of 3.7% in 2021-23. Oil and gas sales generate 40% of Azerbaijan’s GDP.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Tajikistan acting as route for Turkey to send Uighurs to China -media

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DUSHANBE/JULY 26 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan is acting as a secret channel for Turkey to deport Uighurs to China where they are interned in so-called re-education camps, the Daily Telegraph reported.

The newspaper quoted lawyers in Turkey and family members of deported Uighurs who said that China was making hundreds of demands on Turkish authorities to deport Uighurs and that they were now using third countries, such as Tajikistan, to deport them.

The Telegraph documented how 59-year-old Uighur widow Aimuzi Kuwanhan, who had fled China for Turkey, had disappeared suddenly.

“A lawyer hired by her family subsequently discovered that she had been extradited to Tajikistan, despite having never lived there or having held Tajik citizenship. Sources who knew Kuwanhan say from there she was sent to China,” the Telegraph reported.

Turkey has denied the reports and Tajikistan has not commented but there has been an increase in the number of media and online reports from Istanbul of Turkish police and authorities detaining known Uighur activists this year.

Turkey, like Tajikistan’s neighbours — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan — has a sizeable ethnic Uighur population and it would have been politically impossible to deport them directly to China. Tajikistan, though, has close connections with China but no ethnic Uighur population. The plight of the Uighurs, and other Muslim minorities, in China’s Xinjiang province is not a major discussion point in Tajikistan.

This means that while Turkey has a policy of not sending Uighurs back to China, under pressure from various bilateral agreements that it has signed with Beijing, it could send them to Tajikistan. The authorities there would be able to send them on to China.

Over the past decade, Tajikistan has developed close relations with China relying on cheap loans from Beijing to upgrade its Soviet-era infrastructure and give its towns and cities facelifts. These loans have come with major political influence too and Tajikistan can now be relied upon by China to act as a loyal ally.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Feted Kyrgyz human rights activist dies in prison

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BISHKEK/JULY 25 (The Bulletin) — Azimzhan Askarov, one of Kyrgyzstan’s most high-profile prisoners, died in his cell aged 69.

The death of Askarov, an ethnic Uzbek human rights activist considered by the West to be a political prisoner but by most Kyrgyz to be a troublemaker, will damage Kyrgyzstan’s already battered reputation for minority rights.

Announcing Askarov’s death, the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said the Kyrgyz authorities had wanted him to die.

“They had every opportunity to end his wrongful imprisonment, but each time they flouted their obligations,” said Mihra Rittmann, senior Central Asia researcher at HRW. “They intended for him to die in prison, and so he has.”

The US and Western human rights groups had been calling on Kyrgyzstan to release Askarov from prison on humanitarian grounds. He had been ill for several years and had been given only a few months to live earlier this year.

But the Kyrgyz Supreme Court said that Askarov was a dangerous agitator who helped to whip up inter-ethnic tension in 2010 that led to fighting around Osh and Jala-Abad that killed several hundred people. He was imprisoned in 2010 for murdering an ethnic Kyrgyz policeman during the violence after a trial that human rights activists said was riddled with violations. They also said that Askarov had been tortured in prison.

In 2016, the UN asked Kyrgyzstan to release Askarov and re-run his trial and the US gave Askarov a prestigious human rights prize.

A Bulletin correspondent based in Jala-Abad, south Kyrgyzstan, said that while the death of Askarov had sparked some interest, there had been no protests. Most Kyrgyz agree that he was a troublemaker and ethnic Uzbeks don’t want to rock fragile ethnic relations.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Putin says Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting is “very sensitive”

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JULY 24 (The Bulletin) — Russian President Vladimir Putin described fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh earlier in July that killed at least 15 soldiers as “very sensitive”. Analysts had been looking for official reaction from Mr Putin on the fighting, the worst for four years. They have said that he was likely to have applied pressure to both sides to stop the fighting escalating.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Georgia’s TBC Bank launches online bank in Uzbekistan

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JULY 24 (The Bulletin) — Georgia’s TBC Bank launched its digital subsidiary bank in Uzbekistan. TBC, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, has branded the bank as the first fully online bank in Uzbekistan. It has followed Kazakhstan’s Halyk Bank in setting up a subsidiary in Uzbekistan but while Halyk Bank has said it is targeting lending out to businesses, TBC has said that it is targeting ordinary people.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Kazakhstan Railways to sell wagon manufacturing site

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JULY 24 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan Temir Zholy plans to sell its Tulpar Wagon manufacturing plant, a factory that Kazakh officials often hold up as one of the most advanced in the country. Media reported that a joint venture between Spain’s Talgo and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy ended in 2019. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy did not say how much they expected to raise from the sale.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Armenians and Azerbaijanis brawl in Russia

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MOSCOW/JULY 24 (The Bulletin) — Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Moscow and St Petersburg fought and brawled in the streets as tension spilled over from fighting around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus.

AP reported that police in St Petersburg had detained dozens of people during the street fighting. In Moscow, police said that they had also detained 30 people.

Russia is a major destination for migrant workers from Central Asia and the South Caucasus, including people from Armenia and Azerbaijan. The neighbours have officially been at war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh since the early 1990s, although a 1994 UN-imposed ceasefire has mainly held a shaky peace.

The fighting in mid-July killed an estimated 15 soldiers and was the worst for four years.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

China-led AIIB approves loan to Georgia

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JULY 22 (The Bulletin) — The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) approved a 50m loan to Georgia to help it buy more PPE clothing to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Reuters reported that the loan was jointly financed by the World Bank and is the second AIIB loan to Georgia after a $100m loan was provided in May. Critics of the AIIB have said that China uses it to spread its influence.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Turkmenistan joins WTO as observer

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JULY 22 (The Bulletin) — Turkmenistan took what some observers said was a giant step towards shrugging off some of its isolationist attitudes when the World Trade Organisation (WTO) granted it observer status.

Turkmen officials formally applied for observer status in May and said that it would negotiate full membership of the WTO within five years. Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Belarus are the other former Soviet countries still not members of the WTO.

Observer status is considered a stepping stone to full status, a way for a country’s deputies to mug up on how the WTO works and to start making connections and building influence. Turkmenistan has previously shunned WTO membership, preferring to strike bilateral deals.

International economists, though, have been urging Turkmenistan to join WTO to give itself more flexibility over how it strikes deals.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

German ratings agency downgrades Armenia

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JULY 28 (The Bulletin) — Frankfurt-based ratings agency RAEX changed Armenia’s economic outlook status to stable from positive because of a growing government budget deficit, rising government debt and an anticipated recession. The downturn in outlook matches analysts’ predictions that the coronavirus pandemic will push the economies of the South Caucasus into recession.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.