Author Archives: Editor

Comment: Georgia Dream is breaking the country

>> The Georgia Drema government is pushing the country towards domestic strife, writes Hans Gutbrod.

APRIL 23 2024 (The Bulletin) — The Georgian Dream is doubling down on its draft law on “transparency of foreign influence”, directly challenging the West.

The draft law has a number of features that have led some commentators to describe it as a “repress anyone we like” law.

Critics point out that it has a sweeping scope, affecting all non-profits. The law allows for extensive intrusion by inspectors every six months and leaves plenty of room for arbitrariness. Fines for even minor deficiencies are set at a fixed 10,000 lari ($3,600), an amount that few Georgian non-profits can afford.

None of these criticisms have been answered.

If the government is concerned about how dependent much of Georgian civil society is on foreign funding, as it claims, it could make more local funding available. Instead, the Georgian Dream government pursues a repressive course, while reducing its own transparency.

No one seriously believes the stated reasons for pursuing the law. Georgia’s civil society sector is highly transparent already.

Explanations on the motives differ. Many believe the Georgian Dream is following instructions from the Kremlin, pointing to similar recent laws in Kyrgyzstan.

Others link the law with the concern that Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s oligarch-in-chief, has about potential sanctions. Is it a way of sabotaging Georgia’s European path? Demonstrators certainly seem to think so.

EU ambassadors who had hoped that the Georgian Dream could be enticed by opening the door to Europe now have to contend with a government that seems on a rampage.

The Georgian Dream, at any rate, is taking a huge bet ahead of parliamentary elections in October.

Polling suggests that 65% of people under 35 are against this law, and a similar law was abandoned last year after clashes between protesters and the police. Any sober analysis suggests that only repression can keep the government in power if it runs against the overwhelming majority of young people.

People have been protesting for days. If the law passes a second and third reading, the government will have plenty of tools for shutting down civil society. Stoking unrest and then repressing it could be the Georgian Dream’s aim.

>> Hans Gutbrod has been based in the South Caucasus since 1999. He holds a PhD in International relations from the London School of Economics.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Cameron tours Central Asia to secure migrant labour routes

APRIL 23 2024 (The Bulletin) — The British government has framed David Cameron’s trip to Central Asia as a push to persuade the region’s leaders to take a pro-West stance on global affairs, particularly around the war in Ukraine.

But this is only part of the British foreign minister’s visit. The other part is strengthening labour migration routes.

Over the past four years, Britain has turned to Central Asia to plug labour gaps created by Brexit. It has set up schemes to import migrant workers, particularly from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, to Britain to pick fruit, the sort of job that workers from the Baltics were doing until Brexit made it far more difficult.

Either way, it is a win for the West as the more contact there is between Britain and Central Asia, the more chance there is of breaking down Russia’s hold over the region.

On another level, it has been an awkward trip for Cameron, having to pose for photos with Kyrgz Pres. Sadyr Japarov after he imposed Kremlin-inspired laws that make operations for Western-backed media and NGOs far harder.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Tokayev flies to Yerevan

APRIL 23 2024 (The Bulletin) — Armenia is in the midst of an almighty row with the Kremlin over security issues in the South Caucasus and its diplomatic move towards the West.

This means that Kazakh Pres. Kassym Jomart Tokayev’s trip and the promise of more business deals with Armenia can be read two ways. 

Was it a subtle show of support for Armenia’s position on global affairs? Or was Tokayev acting as a Kremlin envoy, carrying a message to Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian PM?

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Markets: Azerbaijan gold miner still waiting for permission to reopen mine

APRIL 23 2024 (The Bulletin) — Stocks generally moved down over the past week, although Anglo Asian Mining, the Azerbaijan-based gold miner showed an upward shift. Analysts warned, though, that this may be a short-term lift as Anglo Asian is still waiting for permission to restart operations at its Gedabek gold and copper mine in western Azerbaijan.

This is its biggest and most important mine and the company has said that it can’t give full guidance on 2024 potential earnings until it knows when it can reopen the mine.

This has been closed since the middle of last year because of a row over how Anglo Asian stores its poisonous waste matter.

Its share price on the London Stock Exchange has roughly halved over the past 12 months to around 68p.

In other equities news, media reported that BAE Systems, the British arms manufacturer, had increased its stake in Air Astana to 16.95% from 15.3%. Until its IPO earlier this year, BAE Systems had owned a 49% stake in Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s national airline.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Aliyev meets Putin in Kremlin days after Russian soldiers quit Nagorno-Karabakh

BAKU/YEREVAN/APRIL 22 2024 (The Bulletin) — Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, flew to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin, Russia’s leader, five days after the Kremlin pulled 2,000 Russian soldiers out of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Under a 2020 peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the soldiers had a mandate to remain in the disputed region until 2025 but the Kremlin said that they were no longer needed. 

“Geopolitical realities in the region have changed and there are no more operational functions left for them,” said Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman. Instead, the soldiers will redeploy to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In the Kremlin, Mr Aliyev and Mr Putin shook hands and smiled warmly for the camera. They said that they had discussed “regional security” but did not reference Nagorno-Karabakh or the war in Ukraine.

Analysts have said that Russia’s withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh either represents a weakening of the Kremlin’s influence in the region or the emergence of a security pact between Baku and Moscow.

Armenian officials have accused Russia of betrayal and Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian PM, has said that he wants to leave the Kremlin’s CSTO security pact. 

Azerbaijan recaptured the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh in September when a lightning-quick strike grabbed Stepanakert, the rebel capital. Around 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled after the attack and Yerevan has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing.

On April 16, Armenia lodged an ethnic cleansing case against Azerbaijan with the Hague-based International Court of Justice.

Armenia has also agreed to transfer four villages demanded by Azerbaijan, a move described as an important milestone towards peace. Mr Aliyev had demanded the villages because he said that, historically, they were Azerbaijani. 

The decision to hand over the villages has triggered protests but the Armenian government said it cuts the risk of war with Azerbaijan.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Kaspi.kz posts profit rise

APRIL 22 2024 (The Bulletin) — Kaspi.kz, the Kazakh tech company that owns a co-called super-app, posted Q1 profits that were 28% higher than last year. Its shares rose by as much as 6% on the New York Stock Exchange. Floods in north and west Kazakhstan this month have suppressed its share price. Revenue in Q1 was up by 40%. Kaspi.kz listed on the New York Stock Exchange this year. 

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

UK foreign minister goes on “grand tour” of Central Asia

APRIL 22 2024 (The Bulletin) — David Cameron, Britain’s foreign minister, started a “Grand Tour” of Central Asia designed to win backing for migrant labour deals from the region’s presidents and persuade them to support the West over the Kremlin. Lord Cameron becomes the first British foreign minister to visit Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, highlighting the increased importance of the region. Britain has been trying to plug Brexit labour shortages with migrants from Central Asia.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Armenian banks report profit rise

APRIL 22 2024 (The Bulletin) — Armenian banks have reported profits up by 19% in the first quarter of the year because of a rise in their loan portfolios, media said. Armenia’s economy has boomed since the start of the war in Ukraine because of both the influx of relatively affluent Russians dodging mobilisation and extra business generated by importing Western goods banned from being sold directly to sanctioned Russia. These goods are then sold to Russia at a profit.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan to link power grids

APRIL 21 2024 (The Bulletin) — Iran’s energy ministry said that a project to link the Iranian, Azerbaijani and Russian power grids will start towards the end of the year. The deal is seen as important by Iran because it can import much-needed electricity to its northern regions. Russia has pushed the project as part of its improved relations with Iran since it invaded Ukraine. The three countries have also been working on a south-north trade corridor.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

German light aircraft manufacturer to start production in Kazakhstan

APRIL 19 2024 (The Bulletin) — Flight Design, a German light aircraft manufacturer, said that it would start producing in Kazakhstan. Analysts said that the push to produce light aircraft in Kazakhstan showed that the country’s manufacturing base was developing and that the market for small aircraft was also growing.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024