Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Comment: A quick look back at 2017

>> The region’s economies and Uzbekistan’s regeneration under Mirziyoyev are the standout features of 2017, writes James Kilner

JAN 5 (The Conway Bulletin) — For Central Asia and the South Caucasus, 2017 was a year of recovery. There have been the usual rounds of elections, generally predictable and cementing the incumbent powers in Georgia, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, but economics, and not politics, caught the eye and the bigger headlines in 2017.

The economic stupor that had hung over the region since oil prices collapsed in 2014 and Russia’s economy fell into a recession, was finally thrown off. If, at the start of the year, the green shoots of recovery looked tentative, by October they were coming out into full bloom.

Most countries were posting decent economic growth figures and double-digit inflation, a real worry, has been neatly sidestepped.

Special mention here must go to Georgia which has posted exceptionally strong economic results, pushed on by a spurt in tourism and investment.

There have been some serious economic exceptions, though. Azerbaijan’s economy still shrunk and its banking sector looked as shaky as ever. International Bank of Azerbaijan defaulted on its debt repayments and several smaller banks have had their licenses revoked. Tajikistan also looks increasingly fragile and Turkmenistan, while the information stream coming out of the country is as beguiling as ever, looks like it may have been holed below the waterline. Watch out, in 2018, for a serious fracture in Turkmenistan.

As well as a recovery period for the region’s economies, 2017 was also a year of recovery for Uzbekistan’s political structures and their relationships with society. This will go down as the year that Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made it clear that he was determined to pursue a reformist agenda after taking over from the authoritarian and brutal Islam Karimov in September 2016.

He devalued the official exchange rate of the Uzbek soum, took thousands of people off blacklists linked to Islamic extremists, reigned in the power of the secret service, encouraged traders to export to neighbouring countries and signed deals with the rest of the region over borders and commerce that his predecessor had spurned.

There is still much to do in Uzbekistan, and some people grumble about the lack of genuine democratic values and the slow pace of human rights progress, but Pres. Mirziyoyev is laying the foundation for a better future for Uzbeks.

If the Conway Bulletin had a ‘Person of the Year’ prize, Mirziyoyev would be a worthy winner.
>> Next week – the first in a 2-part series on what to look out for in 2018

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— This story was first published on Jan. 5 2018 in issue 356 of The Conway Bulletin

Tajikistan blocks Iran’s application to join the SCO

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SEPT. 20 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan is blocking Iranian membership of the Russia and China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) because it accuses Tehran of supporting a banned Islamic party, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported. The SCO is often viewed in the West as a military organisation, although its functions and institutions go further. It is focused on Central Asia, although this year India and Pakistan joined. SCO ascension needs approval from every member.

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— This story was first published in issue 344 of The Conway Bulletin, now called the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Sept. 24 2017.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2017

Tajik anti-corruption officials sent to prison for corruption

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SEPT. 19 (The Bulletin) — A court in Tajikistan sentenced nine former anti-corruption officials, including Firuz Kholmurodzoda, the deputy head of the investigations of the State Anti-Corruption Department, to jail. The case is a reminder of just how entrenched corruption is in Tajikistan. Kholmurodzoda, who received 15 years in prison for abuse of office, had previously prosecuted critics of the government.

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— This story was first published in issue 344 of The Conway Bulletin, now called the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Sept. 24 2017.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2017

CSTO decrees Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan as a terrorist organisation

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SEPT. 7 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a post-Soviet grouping of most militaries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Belarus and Russia, decreed at its meeting in June that the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) was a terrorist organisation, media reported. Tajik officials have arrested or forced into exile all the main members of the IRPT since 2015 after President Emomali Rakhmon accused the group of a coup attempt. Until then, the IRPT, whose top members have sought sanctuary in Europe, had been the official opposition group.
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— This story was first published in issue 343 of The Conway Bulletin on Sept. 15 2017

Investors snap up first Tajik sovereign debt issue

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DUSHANBE, SEPT. 7 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Investors snapped up Tajikistan’s first sovereign bond issue, surprising Central Asia analysts who said the auction came with huge risk.

The $500m Eurobond issue came with a coupon of 7.125%, which analysts said was around 200 basis points more than the price paid by other frontier economies for debt. It is set to mature in 2027.

Tajikistan, considered the poorest of the Central Asian countries with an economy reliant on remittances, has said it wants to raise the cash to pay for construction of the giant Rogun Dam.
Lutz Roehmeyer, director at Landesbank Berlin Investment, invested in some of the debt.

“They don’t want to splash out the money on any nonsense, they want to build a dam and produce electricity which would be a massive boost for the local economy,” he was quoted by Reuters as saying. The Rogun dam is part of a wider project to supply electricity generated by hydroelectric power to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Tajikistan has a reputation for corruption and analysts warned that investing in Tajikistan was a gamble. Last year, the government bailed out its commercial banks.

Max Lambertson of the EIU said yields on investment grade debt around the world were currently so poor that investors were looking at far riskier options to find profit.

“Investors typically show little interest in Tajikistan, which has a poor record with foreign investors and multilaterals,” he said.

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— This story was first published in issue 343 of The Conway Bulletin on Sept. 15 2017

Tajikistan to launch first sovereign debt issue

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DUSHANBE, AUG. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brushing aside a worsening banking crisis, Tajikistan said that it was going to launch its first ever sovereign bond .

Commentators said that the Eurobond could be issued at the start of September and have a lifespan of around nine years, although they did not give a coupon value. The cash raised in the Eurobond would go towards funding the construction of the Rogun Dam, one of the biggest hydropower projects in the world.

It will also make Tajikistan the second country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan, to issue sovereign debt, giving Western investors increased exposure to the region.

Media later said that Tajikistan was aiming to raise $500m through the Eurobond that was likely to have a coupon of around 7.625%.

Shortly after the announcement, ratings agency Moodys, which has Tajikistan at the “highly speculative” investment grade of B3, warned potential investors of the risks involved in a Tajik investment. It said that Tajikistan’s banks were under increased pressure.

“The issuer rating also incorporates the credit challenges posed by institutions that are weak on a global scale, although progress on financial reforms and macroeconomic stability indicate some improvements,” it said.

Over the past 15 months, the Tajik government has rolled out a bailout plan to stop banks from going bankrupt.

The Central Asia region has been recovering from a prolonged economic downturn linked to a recession in Russia and a collapse in oil prices from mid-2014.

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(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Iran drops tax on foodstuffs to Central Asia

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SEPT. 4 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran has lifted an export tax on foodstuffs being sent to Central Asia and the South Caucasus, media quoted Abdollah Mohajer, the head of Mazandaran Province Chamber of Commerce, as saying. The export tax had covered a range of products including pistachio nuts, cabbages, dates and raisins. Ditching the export tax is likely to drop the price of sending foodstuffs to Central Asia by up to 20%. Iran is increasingly trying to tap into Central Asia and the South Caucasus as natural export markets for is various products.

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(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Tajikistan boosts intelligence sharing with China

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SEPT. 1 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — On a trip to Beijing, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon agreed to a general boost in relations with China that included a clause to increase intelligence sharing. China has been increasing its security and diplomatic efforts across Central Asia over the past few years, part of its ‘Belt and Road’ initiative to boost trade with Europe. Last year it also agreed to build a network of security outposts along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Tajikistan accuses Iran of meddling in civil war

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AUG. 9 2017 (The Bulletin) — A documentary aired on state TV in Tajikistan accused Iran of meddling in a civil war in the 1990s by sending in assassins to kill various political leaders. Iran immediately denied the allegations which threaten to undermine important Tajikistan-Iran relations. Tajikistan has been holding a series of events commemorating the end of the civil war that led to the rise of Emomali Rakhmon as president.

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(News report from Issue No. 339, published on Aug. 13 2017)

Tajikistan increases anti-headscarf campaign

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AUG. 2 2017 (The Bulletin) — Police in Tajikistan have detained and fined women for wearing hijabs, Islamic headscarves, the Forum 18 News Service reported. Last month, the authorities said they were launching an official campaign against what they described as non-traditional clothing. Forum 18 reported that women have felt “humiliated” for having to remove their headscarves in public.

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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on Aug. 5 2017)