Tag Archives: GDP

Migrant flow from Tajikistan to Russia has picked up, says airline

DUSHANBE/APRIL 17 2024 (The Bulletin) — Migrant flows from Dushanbe to Moscow have picked up since a drop after a terrorist attack in Moscow, Tajik media quoted aviation officials as saying.

This is important because Tajik officials had reported that thousands of Tajik workers wanted to leave Russia at the end of March because of an increase in xenophobic attacks and pressure from the police.

Remittances sent back by workers in Russia are vital for the Tajik economy, making up around 25% of its GDP.

An official for Somon Air, a Tajik airline, said that by the end of April passenger traffic between Tajikistan and Russia should have returned to normal.

“We’re seeing a trend towards an increase in passenger traffic in the direction of Russia and back compared with the figures two weeks ago,” the official said.

Somon Air operates between 130 and 140 flights per month between Russia and Tajikistan.

Police arrested four Tajik men for killing at least 144 people at a rock concert in Moscow on March 22, the worst terrorist attack in Russia for 20 years.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Georgia’s economy to grow by 7.7%, says IMF

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JULY 22 2021 (The Bulletin) — The IMF said in its latest economic assessment that it expected Georgia’s economy to grow by 7.7% this year, underlining its sharp recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Economists have said that the major concern for Georgia’s economy is inflation. The Central Bank said that it was running at nearly 10% last month.

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— This story was published in issue 493 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 22 2021

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Armenia raises interest rate to highest level since Dec. 2016

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YEREVAN/JUNE 15 2021 (The Bulletin) — Armenia’s Central Bank said that the economy had rebounded faster than expected from both losing a war against Azerbaijan and also from the coronavirus pandemic, giving PM Nikol Pashinyan a boost ahead of a tight election.

The Central Bank also raised interest rates by half a percentage point to 6.5%, its highest level since 2016, strengthening the Armenian dram against the US dollar.

“Gross demand is recovering faster than expected, mainly due to the rapid growth of global demand, increased remittances, the high growth rate of private consumption, while private investment activity remains weak,” the Central Bank said in its statement.

Armenians vote in a parliamentary election on June 20. Polls put Mr Pashinyan ahead of his main contender, former president Robert Kocharyan, but they have also suggested that he may not win a majority.

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— This story was published in issue 48 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on June 16 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Coronavirus rips into region’s economies

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MARCH 11 (The Bulletin) — Fresh economic data showed the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. In Kyrgyzstan, the National Statistics Committee said that the economy was 8.9% smaller in Jan. and February this year compared to the same period in 2020; in Kazakhstan, economy minister Aset Iragliev said that GDP had shrunk by 2.9% in the year to end-Feb; in Azerbaijan, the State Statistics Agency said that the economy was 3.2% smaller now than last year.

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— This story was published in issue 475 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 15 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Georgia’s economy shrinks in 2020

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DEC. 31 2020 (The Bulletin) — Georgia’s economy shrunk by 7.7% in 2020 because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Geostat said, more than the 4% that economists had predicted earlier in the year (Dec. 31). Economists have now said that they expect these worse-than-predicted results to be played out across the region

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— This story was first published in issue 467 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Georgian economy shrinks by 6%

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JULY 31 (The Bulletin) — Georgia’s economy was 5.8% smaller by the end of June compared to the same period in 2019 because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, official data showed. This is in line with previous estimates for a coronavirus-linked recession. In the first six months of 2019, Georgia’s economy had grown by 4.9%.

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— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

ADB says Georgia’s debt-to-GDP rate will soar

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JUNE 19 (The Bulletin) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that although Georgia has navigated through the impact of the coronavirus pretty well, so far, its debt-to-GDP ratio will still jump up to 62.5% this year compared to 44.5% last year. ADB country director, Shane Rosenthal, said that the economic downturn was also an opportunity for Georgian businesses to regenerate “more diversified and inclusive”. Georgia’s economy is set to contract by 5% this year because of the impact of the coronavirus.

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— This story was first published in issue 451 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, published on June 23 2020

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ADB cuts growth rates for the South Caucasus

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JUNE 18 (The Bulletin) — The Asian Development Bank (ABD) joined other international finances institutions in cutting its expected growth rates for the economies of the South Caucasus because of the impact of lockdowns imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus. It said that Georgia’s economy would now contract by 4.9%, Armenia’s would shrink by 3.5% and Azerbaijan’s by 0.1%.

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— This story was first published in issue 451 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, published on June 23 2020

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Thousands of Tajik workers return home

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DUSHANBE/April 5 (The Bulletin) — Thousands of Tajik workers have returned early from jobs in Russia because of a lockdown triggered by the spread of the coronavirus, threatening to undermine the Tajik economy which is one of the most remittance-reliant economies in the world.

An estimated 500,000 Tajiks work in Russia – labouring on building sites, selling roses at train stations, cleaning streets and other menial jobs – and they send home the equivalent of around a third of Tajikistan’s annual GDP. The numbers are similar for Kyrgyzstan.

Economists have said that the combined drag of the coronavirus pandemic and a crash in oil prices may tip Russia into a recession.

The last time the Russian economy contracted, in 2015, the knock-on effect to the Tajik economy was significant.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Coronavirus undermines region’s projected growth

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ALMATY/April 5 (The Bulletin) — The coronavirus will undermine what had looked like a strong year of economic growth in 2020 and instead knock the Central Asia and South Caucasus region into a recession.

Of the six countries in the region that have declared states-of-emergencies and infections of the coronavirus, only Kazakhstan has officially said that its economy will shrink in 2020 but analysts expect others to follow.

Kazakh economy minister Ruslan Dalenov said on April 2 that the combined impact of the coronavirus and a fall in oil prices mean that Kazakhstan’s economy will shrink by 0.9% in 2020.

Oil is Kazakhstan’s main export and with prices dropping by 40% to around $35/barrel because of a price war and a drop in demand triggered by the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, Mr Dalenov said oil exports would fall.

“A decrease is also expected compared to previously approved growth rates in the manufacturing industry, agriculture, construction and the services sector, including trade,” he said.

Kazakhstan had previously predicted GDP growth of 4.5% for 2020. It last went into a recession in 2016 after a previous oil price collapse.

In Armenia, the Central Bank is still predicting GDP growth this year but only of 0.7%, down from an earlier prediction of 7.6%.

Other countries have held off giving predictions on the economic cost of the spread of the coronavirus although they have all said that their original growth estimates are likely to be heavily reduced.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin