Tag Archives: GDP

Armenia says the coronavirus will wipe out any potential GDP growth

APRIL 2 (The Bulletin) — Armenia’s economy minister, Tigran Khachatryan, said that the coronavirus will wipe out any previously projected economic growth this year.

Economists had been predicting another strong year of growth for Armenia with a GDP rise of around 7.5% but it has been hit hard by the spread of the coronavirus – with 822 infections, the highest in the region – and COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

The Armenian Central Bank has also said that economic growth will slow to 0.7% in 2020, but Mr Khachatryan, the economy minister, said that it was too early to even predict this level of growth.

“We believe that in 2020 there will be a significant reduction in economic indicators as opposed to optimistic forecasts made at the beginning of the year,” he was said.

Fitch, the ratings agency, warned that the economic fallout from the coronavirus will damage Armenia’s banking sector and increase the ratio of nonperforming loans. It also said the government’s current account deficit would increase from 1% of GDP to 5%.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Coronavirus hit will drag down the Uzbek economy

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — The spread of the coronavirus, the global lockdown and the collapse of the travel tourism industry will hit Uzbekistan hard, at least in 2020. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has worked to open up the country over the past four years and has placed large emphasis on pulling in Western tourists.

The tourist season should be about to kick-off instead, some of the country’s biggest sites are empty.

Mr Mirziyoyev has also ordered the government to borrow $1b to try to help businesses recover from the impact of the coronavirus. The Uzbek justice ministry said that the country’s GDP growth for 2020 was likely to be 3.7%, compared to an earlier estimate of 5.5%.

The Uzbek Central Bank has said that businesses will also have an extended period to pay back any loans and told credit organisations to be lenient with its debt collecting.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Georgia’s economy grew 5.1% in 2019

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FEB. 28 2020 (The Bulletin) — Georgia’s economy grew by 5.1% in the year to the end of January, data from the government showed. This is up from 3.5% growth recorded a year ago and shows that the strong Georgian economic growth is set to continue. The data was recorded, though, before the spread of the coronavirus out of China started hitting economies.
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— This story was first published in issue 438 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Armenia’s economy to grow by 7% this year

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NOV. 8 (The Bulletin) — Armenia’s Central Bank said that economic growth this year would hit around 7%, far exceeding initial expectations of 4.9%. It said that manufacturing output, construction and strong private consumption had all spurred the growth. The government of PM Nikol Pashinyan has been been talking up its economic policies since a revolution in 2018.

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— This story was first published in issue 428 of the weekly Bulletin

Armenian economy grows 6.5%

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SEPT. 27 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s economy will expand by 6.5% in 2018, higher than the previous expectations of a 4.5% growth, finance minister Atom Janjughazyan told a government meeting. Armenia, like the rest of the region, is rebounding from an economic downturn between 2014-17. A sharp rise in activity in the construction sector has been a key driver of the economic upturn.
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>>This story was published in issue 387 of The Conway Bulletin on Oct. 1 2018

Azerbaijan’s GDP to fall this year

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SEPT. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The IMF said Azerbaijan’s GDP will fall by another 1% this year but rise by 2% in 2018, more analysis that an economic downturn that has smashed into the region is being hard felt in Azerbaijan (Sept. 7). The root cause of the downturn was a fall in oil prices that triggered a recession in Russia. Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on oil. Last year its economy shrank by 3.8%. The IMF also said that inflation in Azerbaijan would remain above 10%.
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— This story was first published in issue 343 of The Conway Bulletin on Sept. 15 2017

Economy grows

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AUG. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Powered by a boost in exports and remittance inflows, Georgia’s economy grew by 4.4% in the first seven months of the year, government data showed, an increase from the 2.7% rise during the same period last year (Aug. 30). Exports in the first seven months of the year were 28% higher than in the same period in 2016. Geostat, the government statistics agency, also said business activity in general in Georgia had picked up and that there had been a 7% increase in the number of businesses registered.

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(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Kazakhstan’s GDP rises

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JULY 23 2017 (The Bulletin) — Spurred on by an increase in mining and metals output, Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.1% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2016, economy minister Timur Suleimenov said. The Kazakh government has been desperate to present a rising GDP number after three years of stagnation following a collapse in oil prices in 2014 and a recession in Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 337, published on July 27 2017)

GDP grows in Georgia

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JUNE 28 2017 (The Bulletin) — Government spending on infrastructure projects and private sector development have given the Georgian economy a boost and means that it could surpass expectations of GDP growth of 4% this year, economy minister Giorgi Gakharia said in an interview with Reuters. This is important because of all the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Georgia’s appears to be recovering the fastest from a downturn triggered by a drop in oil prices that hit Russia, the regional economic driver.

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(News report from Issue No. 335, published on July 3 2017)

Turkmen economic growth to be lumpy, says IMF

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JUNE 15 2017 (The Bulletin) — In a statement, the IMF said that Turkmenistan’s economy would grow at an uneven rate over the next few years with inflation remaining at “moderate” levels while the economy dealt with various external pressures linked to its over-reliance on gas exports as a revenue earner. It put both GDP growth and inflation at around 6% over the next couple of years.

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(News report from Issue No. 333, published on June 19 2017)