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COMMENT: Kyrgyz authorities have failed to protect people

APRIL 5 (The Bulletin) — The authorities in Kyrgyzstan have failed in their first duty to protect the country’s people.

In January, the coronavirus began to spread across the world. It changed from being a China-centric epidemic to being a pandemic. Here in Kyrgyzstan, the authorities closed land borders with China and quarantined people arriving from Iran and Korea, both at the time heavily infected countries, to block the coronavirus. But they ignored other places.

And this gave Kyrgyzstan its Achilles Heel.

As a result, the first cases of infection in Kyrgyzstan with the coronavirus were returnees from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and India. They were either pilgrims who made the Hajj to Mecca or followers of the Tablighi Jamaat Islamic movement. These people had constantly been in crowded places and had a wide circle of contacts, including with foreigners.

The authorities did not consider that these were very religious people who were in no hurry to follow the instructions of the secular authorities regarding self-isolation. Most of them turned out to be poorly educated people living in rural areas of south Kyrgyzstan. They simply did not believe in a global pandemic and did not take any precautions. It is possible that the religious President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, with consultation with the Muslim clergy in Kyrgyzstan, did not want to impose harsh quarantine measures against these people.

Another flagrant incompetence of the authorities was that Kyrgyz industry did not speed up the production of necessary goods, antiseptics for hands, medical masks and other protective agents against viral infections. Kyrgyzstan has a developed sewing industry which could have started the production of masks in advance of the arrival of the coronavirus inside our borders. This would have covered the shortage of this important product not only in the Kyrgyz Republic, but also helped other countries.

Alcohol factories, having large volumes of alcohol, could also be rebuilt to produce hand sanitisers.

The government has now imposed strict quarantine measures but the authorities have not worked out mechanisms for issuing special permits for employees of strategic enterprises. Flour mills have been forced to the brink of closure because their workers could not get past roadblocks to work. Only media hype and the prospect of bread shortages forced the government to step in and push for the flour factories to stay open.

If we are to get through this, the Kyrgyz government needs to up its game.

>> Evgeny Pogrebnyak is a journalist based in south Kyrgyzstan

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Central Asia and the South Caucasus tighten coronavirus lockdowns

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YEREVAN/April 5 (The Bulletin) — Battling to stop the spread of the coronavirus, governments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus intensified lockdowns that ban people from leaving their homes.

At least 17 people have died across the region with the COVID-19 disease caused by the coronavirus, although analysts think the real figure could be many more. Health ministries and international donors are now worried that the region’s underfunded and under-resourced hospitals and health systems will buckle if there is a surge in infections.

On March 26, Armenian deputy PM Mher Grigoryan appeared to betray his nervousness about whether Armenia’s health service could cope with rising infections.

“We have an obvious problem, which is outstanding everywhere else in the world and it is important to solve here in Armenia,” he was quoted as saying. “It is the modernisation and re-equipment of the healthcare system. Here, too, we must take measures.”

In the region, only Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have not reported any infections, to the derision of observers who think it is unlikely that either country has escaped the coronavirus that has been ripping across the world since it appeared in central China in December.

Armenia and Kazakhstan have been worst hit by the coronavirus, with 822 and 569 people infected by April 5, but Kyrgyzstan appears to be most vulnerable economically. Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov has already asked for emergency financial support from the IMF.

As for the intensified lockdowns, the Kazakh authorities have told people that they can only leave their homes every other day and in Azerbaijan people have to notify the police via an app or an SMS if they are going out onto the street.

In Armenia, where PM Nikol Pashinyan had only a few weeks ago said that the coronavirus could easily be beaten, the government has ordered all businesses, restaurants and cafes to close until at least April 10.

He has been criticised for holding referendum campaign rallies in March that may have contributed to the spread of the coronavirus.

“Compared to Azerbaijan and Georgia, our corona infection stats are higher. Am I the first to say that the reason for this is the referendum campaign?” said Samvel Grigoryan, a public health analyst.

A referendum on the status of the country’s top judges had been set for April 5. This has now been postponed.

Armenia’s government has said that the rate of infection is slowing, but people told The Bulletin’s correspondent that they are worried.

“We need to obey,” said Margarita Aghayan, 56, who is confined to her two-room apartment in a Yerevan suburb with her husband, her daughter and granddaughter.

“I feel very scared. I feel horror. I am scared of the people who don’t take this seriously.”

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Economists say the panemic will knock the Tajik economy

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APRIL 5 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan has not reported any cases of the coronavirus and has not placed any of its cities under a lockdown but economists have said that it will still be one of the worst affected economically.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Gazprom wants to increase price of gas for Armenia’s poorest

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YEREVAN/April 1 (The Bulletin) — Gazprom Armenia has applied to the country’s Public Services Regulatory Commission to increase the price of gas that it supplies to the poorest sections of Armenian society from August, media reported (April 1).

Any move by Gazprom Armenia to increase the price it charges Armenian households for gas will be difficult to pull off. The impact of the coronavirus has undermined households’ ability to pay higher prices and Armenian society has a reputation for resisting utility price rises. In 2015 a proposed electricity price rise in Armenia led to major protests in Yerevan and an eventual climbdown.

Reports said that from Aug. 1, Gazprom Armenia wants to charge households on social benefits 36% more for their gas and to slightly reduce the price paid by other households. The overall effect would be to equal out pricing. There is no publicly available data on the number of low-income households on social benefits.

Armenian officials lined up to criticise the proposed price increase, calling it inappropriate given the probable economic impact of the spread of the coronavirus.

“Given the current situation in the global energy market, we consider it appropriate to start new negotiations on reducing the price of thousand cubic meters of gas on the Armenian-Georgian border,” Armenia’s deputy PM Mher Grigoryan wrote in a letter to the chairman of Gazprom, Alexei Miller.

The Russian side has not responded but negotiations are expected to be fraught. When Russia has previously increased the price it charges Armenia for gas, the Armenian government has said that it will switch to buying gas from its neighbour Iran with which it has built up friendly relations over the past decade.

Media also reported that Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the proposed gas price rises. He said that gas should be priced in roubles, which has fallen in value over the past month because of a slump in oil prices and the impact of the spread of the coronavirus.

“We believe that it will be more correct and logical to pay for gas in roubles,” Mr Pashinayn was quoted as saying.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Kyrgyz pilgrims blamed for spreading the coronavirus

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JALA-ABAD,Kyrgyzstan/April 5 (The Bulletin) — Resentment is building in south Kyrgyzstan towards groups of pious Muslims who are accused of bringing the coronavirus into the country.

Officials have said that in mid-March infected pilgrims returning from the Hajj to Mecca in Saudi Arabia and members of the Tablighi Jamaat religious organisation, who had visited Pakistan and India, ignored orders to self-isolate. Instead they celebrated their return with a series of feasts, spreading the coronavirus.

South Kyrgyzstan is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the country. More than half of Kyrgyzstan’s 149 coronavirus infections are in the region and in the small town of Nookat, south of Osh, where many of the pilgrims lived, two people have died with the COVID-19 disease caused by the coronavirus. A strict lockdown has been imposed on Osh and Jala-Abad, the region’s two main cities, and the villages that orbit them. Bishkek has also been placed under a lockdown.

Anastasia, a resident of the village of Blagoveshchenka near Jala-Abad, said that she has been unable to work as a shop cashier since the lockdown was imposed.

“People are very angry at the pilgrims who brought this infection to us,” she said. “Now, like everyone, I just have to sit at home and probably have to get into debt.”

Since the state-of-emergency was announced, the streets of Osh and Jala-Abad have emptied. A Bulletin correspondent said that these rules are being tightened every day and that a person on the street without official permission and a passport can now be arrested.

Some people are not merely frustrated with the pilgrims for bringing the coronavirus into Kyrgyzstan, they are also suspicious of the authorities’ motives for the harsh lockdown.

Bolotbek, works as an IT specialist in a state institution in Jalal-Abad, and lives in the village of Bazar-Korgon, 30km from the city. He said that he has been placed on unpaid leave.

“I see it as an attempt to strengthen control over people, following the example of China,” he said. “Of course, the epidemic must be fought, but not by the same harsh measures. Soon people will begin to starve if they do not lift quarantine.”

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

MARKETS: Central Banks sell US dollar reserves to defend currencies

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APRIL 5 (The Bulletin) — Central Banks across the region continued to spend millions of dollars propping up their ailing currencies against the dual onslaught of the impact of the spread of the coronavirus and a drop in oil prices.

Both the Kazakh tenge and the Georgian lari recovered ground that they had previously lost, moving up slightly. This was backed up by a recovery in oil prices and partly by the slowing of the spread of Covid-19. It is still a major concern, of course, and it has knocked economies across the world, but a near-global lockdown has slowed its spread.

The Kyrgyz som, though, continued to fall heavily. Currency speculators have said that Kyrgyzstan is particularly vulnerable to a global recession. It fell more than 16% to 85/$1, its lowest ever level after the Central Bank essentially accepted that it couldn’t defend its previous value of around 70/$1.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Uzbekistan wants to be taken off list that restricts trade with the US

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APRIL 3 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan has asked the United States to remove it from the list of countries which falls under the Jackson-Vanik Amendment that restricts US trade relations, media reported. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment was introduced in 1975 and restricts US trade with countries with a poor human rights record and which ban emigration. Uzbekistan is still subject to the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, although it has opened up since 2016 when the reclusive Islam Karimov died and Shavkat Mirziyoyev took over as president. Since then, Mr Mirziyoyev has lifted restrictions on Uzbeks leaving the country, invited back various human rights and media groups and moved to cut out forced labour in its cotton sector.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Kazakhstan cuts its interest rate to help business deal with the coronavirus

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APRIL 3 (The Bulletin) — Having increased its key interest rate to 12% from 9.5% last month to try to prop up its ailing currency against the dual impact of a collapse in oil prices and the spread of the coronavirus, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank slashed it back down to 9.5%.

It said that the interest rate cut was needed to help businesses emerge intact from the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

Kazakhstan has also been one of the first countries in the region to admit that its economy may contract after the shock of the pandemic.

Kazakhstan’s deputy finance minister Berik Sholpankulov said that the government would borrow $3b on foreign capital markets to fund economic recovery projects which include a massive state-sponsored construction spree that will employ thousands of people.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Armenia says the coronavirus will wipe out any potential GDP growth

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APRIL 2 (The Bulletin) — Armenia’s economy minister, Tigran Khachatryan, said that the coronavirus will wipe out any previously projected economic growth this year.

Economists had been predicting another strong year of growth for Armenia with a GDP rise of around 7.5% but it has been hit hard by the spread of the coronavirus – with 822 infections, the highest in the region – and COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

The Armenian Central Bank has also said that economic growth will slow to 0.7% in 2020, but Mr Khachatryan, the economy minister, said that it was too early to even predict this level of growth.

“We believe that in 2020 there will be a significant reduction in economic indicators as opposed to optimistic forecasts made at the beginning of the year,” he was said.

Fitch, the ratings agency, warned that the economic fallout from the coronavirus will damage Armenia’s banking sector and increase the ratio of nonperforming loans. It also said the government’s current account deficit would increase from 1% of GDP to 5%.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Kazakh car factory to start producing Chevrolets

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APRIL 1 (The Bulletin) — Kazakh car factory SaryarkaAutoProm in Kostanay launched the start of production of Chevrolet cars under licence from Uzbekistan’s state-owned UzAuto. Company officials said that it wanted to produce 26,000 cars in the first year, rising to 100,000 in later years. The expansion into Kazakhstan was planned by UzAuto before the spread of the coronavirus.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin