Author Archives: Editor

France recalls ambassador to Azerbaijan

APRIL 16 2024 (The Bulletin) — France recalled its ambassador in Baku after accusing Azerbaijan of deliberately damaging relations. France is a staunch supporter of Armenia and has boosted military supplies since Azerbaijan recaptured all of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh last year. Azerbaijan has refused to take part in peace negotiations mediated by France. French intelligence officials have accused Azerbaijan of spreading disinformation about the Olympic Games due to be held in Paris.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Tokayev wants stronger Kazakhstan-Armenia trade links

APRIL 16 2024 (The Bulletin) — On a trip to Yerevan, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s president, said that he wanted to boost Kazakh exports to Armenia to $350m/year. This was Mr Tokayev’s first official visit to Armenia. It came as Yerevan tries to weaken links with Russia and boost ties with the West.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

BP opens new oil platform in Azerbaijani sector of Caspian Sea

BAKU/APRIL 16 2024 (The Bulletin) — BP started oil production at a new platform at its main oil field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, its first in 16 years.

The Azeri Central East platform (ACE) is the seventh in the Azer-Chirag-Gunashli field (ACG) which has been the mainstay of Azerbaijan’s oil production since 1997.

“ACE is increasing Azerbaijan’s oil production and helping to make the most of a maturing field. It’s giving both BP and Azerbaijan the opportunity to get more value from existing fields and assets,” said Ruhali Imanov, the commissioning superintendent on the platform.

Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, has pressured BP for years to reverse declining production rates at ACG. 

Its output is expected to increase by 24,000 barrels per day this year to around 430,000 barrels per day as two more wells come on stream. Peak production at ACG was around 1m barrels per day in 2010. 

BP said that the new ACE platform would produce 100,000 barrels of oil per day at its peak.

“One of its exciting features is the location of the control room onshore rather than on the platform, a first for both the region and for BP,” said BP. 

In 2019, the ACG shareholders pledged to boost production with a $6b development plan.

The first oil from ACG was produced in 1997. 

BP is the biggest shareholder in ACG with a stake of 30.4%, followed by Azerbaijani state oil company Socar with a 25% stake.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Trial of former economy minsiter for murder is an opportunity for Kazakhstan

>> The trial of a former economy minister in Kazakhstan for murdering his wife is a chance to improve the country’s shaming domestic abuse record, says James Kilner

APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) –It’s not just the law’s view of domestic violence in Kazakhstan that has stained the country’s reputation. Attitudes need to change too.

It has taken the heinous murder by Kuandyk Bishimbayev of his wife last year to force Kazakh lawmakers to toughen punishment around domestic violence, but these laws will be no good if they are undermined by a system that doesn’t want women to speak out.

The UN has  demanded change. It said that 62,000 women in Kazakhstan reported abuse last year, although it has also said that the real number of victims is much higher.

Women are not encouraged to speak out in Kazakhstan’s strongly patriarchal society. 

They are expected to accept their beatings and to remain quiet and this means that progress on improving women’s rights is stunted. It’s one thing toughening punishment for men who abuse their wives or children, it is quite another to create a culture where women feel safe enough to speak out.

The case of Bishimbayev is a case in point. 

He is an ugly, corrupt and pathetic man who took his frustrations out on the women in his life by beating them. He hasn’t been convicted yet of the murder of his wife, Saltanat Nukenova, in November at a restaurant owned by a family member – but evidence is mounting. 

CCTV film shows him hitting Nukenova that evening. Her lifeless body lay on the floor of the restaurant for hours while Bishimbayev callously schemed over how to shift blame. 

He ordered the CCTV film to be wiped clean and for a chauffeur to drive Nukenova’s smartphone around Astana in the hope that it would fool people into thinking that she had been alive.

None of it appears to have worked. Bishimbayev’s only hope of avoiding years in prison appears to be pressuring the judge and using his privileged position as a member of the Kazakh elite to push for a light sentence. 

He’s pulled the trick before. In 2027, shortly after resigning as Kazakhstan’s economy minister, he was sent to prison for a decade for corruption but managed to walk free after only three years. 

Now, Kazakhstan has a chance to right these wrongs. It needs to sort out its terrible domestic abuse record, setting an example for the rest of the region, and it needs to imprison Bishimbayev for a long time.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Soros Foundation quits Kyrgyzstan because of “foreign agents” law

BISHKEK/APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) — The Soros Foundation quit Kyrgyzstan after 31 years because of a new Kremlin-inspired law that gives the government intrusive powers over Western-backed NGOs and media.

Its Open Society New York-based parent company said that Kyrgyzstan’s “foreign agents” law, which came into effect this month, would have “negative consequences” for civil society.

“We deeply regret that the organisation’s activities will no longer be able to continue and that the new repressive law will lead to civil society operating in conditions of uncertainty and fear,” said Binaifer Novroji, the Open Society president.

Kyrgyzstan said that it needed the new law to improve transparency and tighten national security but activists said that it will be used to crush dissenting media and NGOs. Analysts said the law highlights the influence of the Kremlin despite its war in Ukraine. Russia introduced a “foreign agents” law in 2012.

Civil society in Kyrgyzstan has been largely reliant on Western support to grow. The Soros Foundation in Bishkek said that it had invested $115m in the country, mainly in education and social issues.

“The extremely vague content of the concept of ‘political activity’ leads to negative consequences or unforeseen risks for both the Fund and its partners,” it said.

Other Western-backed NGOs have said they are also considering retreating from Kyrgyzstan after the new law was passed.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Trial of economy minister for murder is an opportunity to improve women’s rights

>> The trial of a former economy minister in Kazakhstan for murdering his wife is a chance to improve the country’s shaming domestic abuse record, says James Kilner

APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) –It’s not just the law’s view of domestic violence in Kazakhstan that has stained the country’s reputation. Attitudes need to change too.

It has taken the heinous murder by Kuandyk Bishimbayev of his wife last year to force Kazakh lawmakers to toughen punishment around domestic violence, but these laws will be no good if they are undermined by a system that doesn’t want women to speak out.

The UN has  demanded change. It said that 62,000 women in Kazakhstan reported abuse last year, although it has also said that the real number of victims is much higher.

Women are not encouraged to speak out in Kazakhstan’s strongly patriarchal society. 

They are expected to accept their beatings and to remain quiet and this means that progress on improving women’s rights is stunted. It’s one thing toughening punishment for men who abuse their wives or children, it is quite another to create a culture where women feel safe enough to speak out.

The case of Bishimbayev is a case in point. 

He is an ugly, corrupt and pathetic man who took his frustrations out on the women in his life by beating them. He hasn’t been convicted yet of the murder of his wife, Saltanat Nukenova, in November at a restaurant owned by a family member – but evidence is mounting. 

CCTV film shows him hitting Nukenova that evening. Her lifeless body lay on the floor of the restaurant for hours while Bishimbayev callously schemed over how to shift blame. 

He ordered the CCTV film to be wiped clean and for a chauffeur to drive Nukenova’s smartphone around Astana in the hope that it would fool people into thinking that she had been alive.

None of it appears to have worked. Bishimbayev’s only hope of avoiding years in prison appears to be pressuring the judge and using his privileged position as a member of the Kazakh elite to push for a light sentence. 

He’s pulled the trick before. In 2027, shortly after resigning as Kazakhstan’s economy minister, he was sent to prison for a decade for corruption but managed to walk free after only three years. 

Now, Kazakhstan has a chance to right these wrongs. It needs to sort out its terrible domestic abuse record, setting an example for the rest of the region, and it needs to imprison Bishimbayev for a long time.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Tourism needs to be treated with care

APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) — Tourism is changing Central Asia and the South Caucasus forever. Of course in the short term, it will bring wealth and spur new business but the long-term risks need assessing too.

The concerns are that tourism accelerates inflation and changes communities by facilitating a huge influx of people and massive construction projects. Georgia and Uzbekistan in particular need to proceed with caution.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Markets: Kazakh Central Bank decides against interest rate cut

APRIL 16  2024 (The Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge shifted up by 0.6% after the Kazakh Central Bank decided not to cut interest rates against market expectation. It is now trading at 448.4/$1, recovering from around 476/$1 six months ago.

The Central Bank said that inflation in March measured an annualised 9.1% which was slightly above expectations and that although global grain prices were recovering from the shock of the war in Ukraine, domestic pressures were keeping prices high.

“The domestic economy is still under inflationary pressure due to strong domestic demand and unanchored inflation expectations,” it said. Kazakhstan’s Central Bank targets inflation of 5%.

In equities, analysts said that heavy flooding in north and west Kazakhstan had spooked investors who had sold off stock in Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan fintech company which owns a super-app that most Kazakhs use to pay bills, pay taxes and buy consumer products.

It traded down as low as $103 in the past week, having hit a high of $123 after listing on the New York Stock Exchange in January. 

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Tokayev due to fly to Yerevan for talks

APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) — Kassym Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s president, was due to fly to Yerevan for talks with Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s PM, in a potential swipe at the Kremlin. Armenia wants to reduce its links to Russia and by flying to Yerevan for talks Mr Tokayev may appear to be giving his support to this diplomatic shift.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Tajikistan complains of torture to Russia

APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) –Don’t underestimate the importance of Tajikistan complaining to the Kremlin about the torture of four of its citizens, arrested for a terror attack in Moscow in March.

Dushanbe has been incensed at the cruelty shown by Russian security forces to the four men who were captured relatively unharmed but appeared later in court bruised and battered, their eyes hollow.

Of course, the Tajik government feels shame that its citizens are involved in terrorist incidents but they also link the torture of the men to humiliation felt by the thousands of Tajik workers who are now being stopped and searched on Russian streets and often deported for infractions. 

Remittances are vital to the Tajik economy and it is important that Russia keeps welcoming Tajiks. It’s also a worry that Turkey has suspended visa-free access for Tajiks after the terror attack.

Policymakers’ reaction to the terror attack in Moscow may be to shun and discriminate against Tajiks. This would be entirely wrong and it is good to hear the Tajik government standing up for its citizens.

ENDS

— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024