Author Archives: Editor

European Council president flies into Tbilisi to mediate in political standoff

MARCH 1 2021 (The Bulletin) — Charles Michael, President of the European Council, flew to Tbilisi to mediate in a political stand-off between the Georgian Dream coalition government and opposition forces, led by the United National Movement party (UNM ). The stand-off, which started in October after disputed parliamentary elections, intensified in February after the arrest of UNM leader Nika Melia and the resignation of Giorgi Gakharia as PM. At a negotiation session chaired by Mr Michael the opposition agreed to scale back protest plans in favour of more dialogue.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Police in Almaty detain demonstrators

FEB. 28 2021  (The Bulletin) — Police in Almaty detained dozens of protesters who had been calling for the release of political prisoners in the largest anti-government demonstrations in Kazakhstan this year. In what has become fairly standard practice in Kazakhstan, police stopped protesters gathering in city centre squares and parks and detained leaders en route to the meetings. Activists have said that the right to protest barely exists in Kazakhstan.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Uzbek police detain opposition leader

FEB. 28 2021 (The Bulletin) — Police in Uzbekistan detained Khidirnazar Allakulov, one of the country’s only opposition leaders, on the day that he was due to hold a meeting with supporters in Tashkent, raising questions over the authorities’ attitude towards political plurality. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has spoken of his mission to uphold democratic principles in Uzbekistan.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Video shows senior Georgian Dream officials flouting coronavirus rules

FEB. 28 2021 (The Bulletin) — Video footage has emerged of senior officials in the ruling Georgian Dream coalition government flouting coronavirus rules at a party hosted at a property in Tbilisi owned by a millionaire donor. The footage, which was aired on an opposition-supporting TV channel, showed Georgian Dream party chairman  Irakli Kobakhidze and Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze socialising at the party without wearing masks and apparently ignoring social distancing rules.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Dutch parliament recognises Armenian genocide

FEB. 27 2021 (The Bulletin) — The Dutch parliament voted to pass a motion that recognises the genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turks at the end of the World War I. Gaining global recognition for what it has called a genocide is a major plank of Armenian foreign policy. Turkey has denied genocide and has instead said that people were killed in fighting between Ottoman and Armenian forces.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Turkish media company takes over running of Azerbaijani lottery

FEB. 27 2021 (The Bulletin) — Turkey’s Demiroren Holding, best known for its Turkish media business that includes the Hurriyet newspaper and CNN Turk, has taken over the running of Azerbaijan’s national lottery for at least the next decade, media reported. Turkish businesses have been moving into Azerbaijan heavily over the past three or four months, since Turkey helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia for control of Nagorno-Karabakh.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Kyrgyzstan increases interest rate by 0.5%

FEB. 24 2021 (The Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 5.5% to counter rising inflation, its first rise since February 2020. The coronavirus pandemic and a coup in October has pressured the Kyrgyz som which is trading at around 84/$1, a fall of around 20%. This fall in the value of the som has pushed up inflation.

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— This story was published in issue 474 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 5 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Markets — Kazakh tenge rebounds slightly

FEB. 11 2021 (The Bulletin) —  The Kazakh tenge was the biggest winner over the past week, rising by 1.3% to 418/$1, essentially regaining its losses of the previous week. The tenge has been trading in a range of between 415 and 430 to $1 since the middle of last year. 

Across the Caspian Sea to the region’s other heavily traded currency, the Georgian lari, the Central Bank there kept interest rates steady because it said that inflation had slowed. This was in-line with other Central Banks across the region but it still disappointed the markets and the Georgian lari slipped slightly in value. 

Away from the lari and the tenge, the Armenian dropped nearly 1%, despite a small increase in rates by the Central Bank which has signalled that it wants to strengthen its currency. The dram has been under pressure since Armenia lost a war against Azerbaijan last year over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. In November, it was valued at 490/$1.

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— This story was first published in issue 471 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Markets: Shares in region push up

FEB. 11 2021 (The Bulletin) —  Shares in companies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region tracked commodity prices, pushing up to new highs. Commodity prices have remained strong throughout the pandemic, supporting mining companies. With the exception of Bank of Georgia, Georgia Capital, TBC Bank and Kaspi, the stocks tracked in the region are all miners.

The share price of KAZ Minerals, the London-listed copper producer, pushed up to near 810p, a 2-1/2 year high, already oustripping an offer of 780p per share that a Kazakhstan-funded group of private investors have offered shareholders. And their offer was an increase on the 640p that they had originally offered shareholders in November. In March last year, KAZ Minerals’ shares had hit a low of 300p.  The only stock that didn’t push up in value was Anglo Asian. Analysts said that this was because of its surge already this year.

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— This story was first published in issue 471 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Comment — The politics of the portrait in Central Asia

FEB. 11 2021 (The Bulletin) —  Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, the new boy in the Central Asia and South Caucasus leaders’ club, is playing portrait politics. He told officials this week that he didn’t want to see any fawning portraits of himself in their offices, in businesses around the country, schools or universities.

Japarov is keen to frame himself as a man of the people and he has clearly decided that the age-old custom of hanging portraits of the leader in offices is not something that he wants to go in for. 

But it is not as if his predecessor indulged it much, either. Sooronbai Jeenbekov, who Japarov deposed in a coup in October, appeared more modest than most of his Central Asian contemporaries and very few offices carried portraits of him.

The politics of the presidential portrait is one worth considering in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. It is a gauge of personality cults and how the elite want to project their legitimacy and, dare I say it, primacy over ordinary people.

In Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev is still the only portrait hung in offices and official buildings. He is everywhere. His successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is nowhere and very much plays the role of appointed official to Nazarbayev’s First President of the Nation act. For Nazarbayev, his legacy based on building modern-day Kazakhstan is central to his self-image. And the portraits, as well as statues and the renamed capital city, reinforce this message.

In Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, leaders’ portraits are ubiquitous too. In Uzbekistan, based on pre-Soviet Khanate tradition, it is the custom to promote the image of the leader. In Tajikistan and Turkmenistan it is a different story. Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon and Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov are busy building dynasties. Both men are grooming their sons as heirs and this requires legitimacy. Hence the portraits, reinforcing their self-styled images as the embodiment of the nation.

Azerbaijan has already established dynastic rule. Ilham Aliyev took over from his father, Heydar, in 2003 and he is careful to remind ordinary people of this dynastic legitimacy by encouraging offices to hang both his portrait and the portrait of his father on the wall.

As for Armenia and Georgia, the leaders eschew portraits. They are also, the least stable countries in the region, other than Kyrgyzstan.

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— This story was first published in issue 471 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021