DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan and its leader, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, have a lot to live up to in 2020. The Economist’s ‘Country of the year’, it feels like Mr Mirziyoyev has done the easy bit in Uzbekistan. He has taken the low hanging fruit from the tree and ripped into it.

I’m talking, of course, about his economic reforms that have been lauded across newspapers across the globe ahead of a parliamentary election on Dec. 22. He has improved conditions for private businesses to operate, he has pulled together Uzbekistan’s previously complicated exchange rate mechanisms and he has encouraged foreign investors to build factories and create jobs.

Perhaps most striking is the shift to being tourist friendly. In the early 2000s, the trademark reaction from Uzbek police and border guards when you wanted to cross into the country was gruff indignation. Now, it is a cheery hello. This year I made two land crossings into Uzbekistan, one from Shymkent in Kazakhstan and another from Osh in Kyrgyzstan. Neither could have been easier and none of the officials more charming.

And the tourism impact is partly behind this economic boom.

There are more Western tourists in Uzbekistan now than ever before. The infrastructure is still catching up with this expansion but it will get there. Uzbeks are natural hosts and want to make their guests welcome.

But talk around the election of genuine political changes is misguided. Mirziyoyev is no more likely to relinquish power as his predecessor, Islam Karimov. He has shown his ruthlessness by imprisoning senior and potentially troublesome members of the former regime already. All the power is concentrated into his hands. Parliament is there to rubber stamp his decisions and this latest election highlighted these traits.

Uzbek officials are playing a wily game. As they shift Uzbekistan into the spotlight and take their seats at the various international organisations that Karimov denied to them for so long, people will start asking questions about not only the state of the economy and business but also about political plurality, free speech, the media and the ability to object. By carefully stage managing this parliamentary election, with five political parties and a leaders’ debate on television they have given the impression, to some, that Uzbekistan is set for genuine far-reaching political reforms.

This is extremely doubtful, a scepticism highlighted by a parliamentary motion to toughen sentences for unsanctioned demonstrations.
Mirziyoyev faces a daunting 2020.

ENDS

— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019

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