FEB. 14 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tengizchevroil, the Chevron-lead Kazakhstan oil producer, plans to invest $5b to $6b over the next five years to maintain production levels, Bloomberg quoted general-director Tim Miller as saying. Tengiz, near Atyrau on the Caspian Sea coast, is Kazakhstan largest oil producing field.
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(News report from Issue No. 77, published on Feb. 16 2012)
FEB. 16 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Attacks against Israeli targets in Georgia, India and Thailand and an acrimonious row between Baku and Tehran have thrown a spotlight over the relationship between the South Caucasus and Iran.
The same day that Georgian security forces disarmed a car bomb in Tbilisi another exploded in Delhi, injuring an Israeli woman (Feb. 13). Israel has blamed Iran for both attacks and another in Bangkok the following day.
Three weeks earlier the authorities in Baku arrested two Iranians for conspiring to assassinate Israeli diplomats, although Iran denied the charges.
The South Caucasus has a complex, fluid relationship with Iran.
Over the past year, much to the irritation of the US, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia have strengthened ties with Iran. Gas deals have been made, railway and air links solidified, visa regulations waived and military delegations hosted. Private business and trade links have also surged.
But behind these strengthening connections relations often remain strained.
Azerbaijan has built up good links with Israel and Georgia’s main backer is the US. Both are Iran’s sworn enemy. Armenia has more cordial ties with Iran but it also needs to be flexible.
The South Caucasus countries have to deal with their powerful neighbour but they are also wary.
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(News report from Issue No. 77, published on Feb. 16 2012)
FEB. 6 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – A fire broke out at one of Kazakhstan’s three oil refineries. Nobody was hurt in the fire at the refinery in Shymkent, near the Uzbek border, and an official said production was not affected. A broken oil pipe, fractured by the cold weather, was blamed for the fire.
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(News report from Issue No. 76, published on Feb. 9 2012)
JAN. 19 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR agreed to build an oil refinery in Kyrgyzstan. Media reported that the refinery will process 2m tonnes of crude oil a year and be operational by the end of 2013. The construction will cost $150m. China is already building an oil refinery in Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 74, published on Jan. 26 2012)
JAN. 18 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Paris-based intergovernmental International Energy Agency warned that unrest last month in west Kazakhstan could slow investment in the Kazakh oil and gas sector, Bloomberg reported. This is the first warning from a major institution that violence which killed at least 17 people could impact the investment climate.
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(News report from Issue No. 73, published on Jan. 19 2012)
DEC. 14 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – After two years of arguments, the energy companies (BG, Eni, Chevron and Lukoil) developing the Karachaganak gas project in Kazakhstan agreed a deal with the government to allow it a buy a stake in what is one of the country’s biggest energy developments. Essentially, Kazakhstan will pay $1b for a 10% stake.
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(News report from Issue No. 70, published on Dec. 22 2011)
DEC. 18 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Riots that have killed at least 16 people in western Kazakhstan are a major challenge to the Kazakh elite.
It was, to put it simply, the biggest display of public discontent with the country’s leaders since independence in 1991.
The authorities have since imposed a state of emergency in the town of Zhanaozen, the centre of the fighting, and flooded the region with military. Protests have now taken root in Aktau, a major nearby oil centre, although there are so far no reports of violence.
Their strategy is simple. They aim to stop protests spreading to cities outside the western region of Mangistau. If they can’t, then the outlook for 2012 is decidedly bumpy.
The authorities’ reaction to the riots was insightful. It felt Soviet. They simply crushed the former oil workers who had occupied the main square in Zhanaozen since mid-May.
The statements that followed were dripping in Soviet language. According to President Nursultan Nazarbayev, the riots were started by selfish bandits and hooligans and the police had fired on them only when they feared for their lives. Reading it felt like 1986.
The bottom line is that in two consecutive civil disorder scenarios, police fired live rounds at protesters and killed several people.
Kazakhstan has prided itself on being an island of stability in volatile post-Soviet Central Asia. That image is looking distinctly battered.
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(News report from Issue No. 70, published on Dec. 22 2011)
DEC. 16 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Unprecedented riots broke out in Zhanaozan, west Kazakhstan, on Independence Day. At least 15 people died in fighting between ex-oil workers and police, who opened fire on protesters. The next day rioting spread to another town where police also shot at protesters killing one and injuring 11.
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(News report from Issue No. 70, published on Dec. 22 2011)
DEC. 9 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan and the foreign energy companies in the Karachaganak gas project (BG Group, Eni, Chevron and Lukoil) are close to resolving their long-running dispute, sources told Reuters. The sources said Kazakhstan would pay $1b for a 10% stake in exchange for dropping outstanding tax claims.
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(News report from Issue No. 69, published on Dec. 14 2011)
NOV. 8 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign debt rating to BBB+, one notch above Russia. The upgrade is a significant boost to Kazakhstan’s political and business elite. Standard & Poor’s highlighted Kazakhstan’s projected increase in oil exports.
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(News report from Issue No. 64, published on Nov. 8 2011)