Tag Archives: international relations

Tokayev says that Russia did not annex Crimea

DEC. 4 (The Bulletin) — Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in an interview with the German newspaper Deutsche Welle that Russia hadn’t annexed Crimea in 2014. He insisted that the word annexation was too strong to use in the context of Crimea. Western policy has always been that Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Mr Tokayev also said that Kazakhstan had no concern that Russia was looking to annex Russian populated areas of northern Kazakhstan.
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— This story was first published in issue 431 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 9 2019

Kazakhstan plans to return men to China

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DEC. 7 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee said that two ethnic Kazakhs who crossed over from China’s western Xinjiang province illegally to escape what they said was the persecution of Muslim minorities will be returned to the Chinese authorities. A court case against Kaster Musakhan and Murager Alimuly for crossing the border illegally in October is due to begin soon but Darkhan Dilmanov, deputy head of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee has already said that they have “no chance” of staying.
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— This story was first published in issue 431 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 9 2019

China eyes up $545m investment into Tajikistan’s Talco

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DUSHANBE/Dec. 4 (The Bulletin) –China is lining up a $545m investment to buy a stake in the Talco aluminium smelter, Tajikistan’s biggest industrial unit.

Yue Bin, China’s former ambassador to Tajikistan, told the Tajik language version of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the investment, announced earlier this year, would be paid for by China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) to help modernise the Soviet-era plant.

“In my opinion, the joint venture will benefit both parties, both in terms of creating new jobs, and in terms of increasing production capacity and volume of production, sales of products and, ultimately, tax revenues to the state budget of Tajikistan,” he was quoted as saying.

Talco has not comment, neither has the Chinese government nor the Tajik government but in November Talco was converted into a joint stock company, which should make it easier to sell stakes in. This year it was announced that China would invest $545m into Talco to modernise the Soviet-era factory, although it wasn’t explained at the time how this investment would be paid for.

The potential deal highlights what many analysts have described as an economic takeover of Tajikistan by China. In return for political influence, China has given Tajikistan cheap loans to build new roads and tunnels, construct cement factories and beautify Dushanbe. Chinese companies now own various mining rights in Tajikistan and earlier this year reports surfaced that it had built a military base in the Pamir Mountains.

The ownership structure of Talco if opaque. Officially it is owned by the Tajik government although there are close links to the presidential family. Talco also has a management company based in the BVI.
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— This story was first published in issue 431 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 9 2019

Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline opens

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BAKU/Nov. 30 (The Bulletin) –Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially marked the completion of the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) which will pump gas from the South Caucasus across Turkey to Europe.

TANAP is the longest section of the 3,500km-long $38b Southern Gas Corridor. The first section connecting the BP-operated Shah Deniz II gas field in the Caspian Sea to Erdine, in eastern Turkey has already been open and next year the final section, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, running across Greece and the Balkans to Italy, will open.

In a speech in Ipsala, on the Turkey-Greece border, Mr Aliyev said that the project, which will give Azerbaijan’s economy a major boost through gas sales, was more than just a gas transit pipeline.

“This project leads to cooperation, stability, long-term mutual understanding, and it would be wrong to consider these projects simply as energy projects,” he said according to a statement on his website.

Construction of the pipeline, one of the world’s longest energy pipeline was started four years ago and has had the financial backing of European countries, the EU and various financial institutions such as the EBRD.

European countries want an alternative energy source to Russia, which has been their primary provider of gas.

When the Southern Gas Corridor does open next year it will pump an estimated 10b cubic metres of gas to Europe, enough power for up to 10m households.
TANAP’s shareholders are Azeri state energy company Socar with a 51% stake, Turkish pipeline operator BOTAS with a 30% stake, BP with 12% and Socar Turkey with 7%.
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— This story was first published in issue 431 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 9 2019

Kyrgyzstan eases visa regulations with Iran

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DEC. 4 (The Bulletin) — Highlighting improved bilateral relations, Kyrgyzstan and Iran eased visa regulations between the two countries and also resumed direct flights. Iran has been keen to develop relations with Central Asian countries. For the Kyrgyz government, improving links with Iran is an opportunity to try to entice Iranians looking to holiday in a cooler climate to travel to Kyrgyzstan.
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— This story was first published in issue 431 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 9 2019

Comment: The CSTO has always lacked relevance

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Other than spreading Russian influence, the CSTO is a military alliance lacking a clear mission. Opportunities to impose itself and carve out an identity have been missed, writes James Kilner.

NOV. 29 (The Bulletin) — For a military organisation that can pull together regular summits which include Russian President Vladimir Putin, the CSTO is oddly anaemic. On Nov. 28, the heads of states of the six members of the CSTO met in Bishkek for a summit that was only vaguely relevant.

This is a military organisation led by Russia which has dodged intervention on its doorstep and inside its borders. It currently doesn’t even have a permanent Secretary-General to lead it.

The CSTO, or to give it its full name the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union as something of a Warsaw Pact light, very light. It was supposed to impose a military pact over the rump of the Soviet Union that wasn’t looking West and to NATO. But its origins and ambitions have always been confused.

A CIS military grouping was formed after the Tashkent Pact of 1992, with Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia as members. When it came to be renewed in 1999, though, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan declined. This meant that when the CSTO was finally created in 2002 there were also only six members and it was dominated by Russia.

Recent inaction by the CSTO has also undermined its cause. The CSTO stood by in 2010 when fighting between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in Osh, southern Kyrgyzstan, killed several hundred people and forced thousands of ethnic Uzbek to flee. Often too, as in Ukraine and Georgia, Russia is a belligerent, or backs a belligerent, in a conflict, forcing CSTO peacekeeping missions off the table.

Even when there is cooperation within the CSTO, it is couched as bilateral. Armenia has sent 100 deminers and doctors to support Russian rebuilding in Syria but other countries declined and the deal is considered to be between Russia and Armenia directly.

Of course, it doesn’t help that since the start of this year, the CSTO has been without a Secretary-General. Yuri Khachaturov, the Armenian former CSTO Secretary-General, is currently standing trial for “subverting the constitution” in Yerevan in 2008 when police killed at least 14 protesters. Members of the CSTO haven’t been able to agree on a replacement.

The CSTO holds value to Russia for helping it to spread political influence and to sell its military products, but as a militarily operational group it is largely irrelevant.

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