Tag Archives: economy

Ratings agencies downgrade Armenia

>>Armenia’s economy is closely linked to Russia’s fortunes>>

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Armenia’s bond ratings to negative from stable, another sign that the Armenian economy is in for a turbulent few months.

Fitch said that it expected Armenia’s economy to slip into a recession this year and the deficit to widen.

“Remittances amount to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of 2014 as 90% of the total come from Russia,” it said in a research note.

Armenia has been hit by the drop in the Russian rouble and the turmoil in Russia’s economy, triggered by a fall in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West after the Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine.

Over the past seven months, Armenia’s dram currency has fallen by nearly 20% against the US dollar despite a steady increase in interest rates.

Of course, it’s not just Armenia which is exposed to the drop in Russia’s economy and currency. The rest of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have also been badly hit.

Armenia, though, is particularly closely linked. It is desperately hoping that there will be some improvement in Russia’s economy.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

AcerlorMittal cuts workers’ salaries in Kazakhstan

FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — ArcelorMittal, the Luxembourg-based steel manufacturer, said it had temporarily cut salaries for workers at its plant in Temirtau near Karaganda, central Kazakhstan, by 25. ArcelorMittal has struggled to make the plant profitable over the last few years. It has cut its workforce at the plant to 17,000 from over 20,000.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Kazakhs buy the rouble

>>Worries about devaluation drive Kazakhs to the rouble>>

FEB. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — People in Kazakhstan have been buying roubles at surprising rates over the past couple of months.

Exchange bureaus data shows that the demand for the Russian currency increased steadily in November and skyrocketed in December despite the rouble losing value against the Kazakh tenge (Jan. 28).

No official reason has been given for the rise in rouble demand but there are several plausible reasons. A Bulletin correspondent in Almaty said many Kazakhs see the ailing rouble as a cheap currency for cross-border shopping.

Of course, Kazakhs may also be speculating that the rouble is valued too cheaply at the moment and that it will rise in value. This is almost certainly true of its value against the Kazakh tenge.

The Kazakh Central Bank has vowed to avoid another devaluation of the tenge — it cut the value of its currency by 20% last year — but the market, and most people on the streets think that another sudden devaluation is inevitable.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Russia cuts Uzbek/Turkmen gas orders

FEB. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Alexander Medvedev, vice-chairman of Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, said the company would cut gas it buys from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Mr Medvedev did not specify why Gazprom had cut its orders from Turkmenistan by 60% and from Uzbekistan by 75% but it may be linked to Russia’s economic downturn.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Kazakhmys cuts projects

FEB. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhmys, one of the biggest employers in Kazakhstan, said it was stopping work on a handful of side projects and making 2,000 people redundant. Kazakhmys’ main product is copper although it employs thousands more people in support businesses such as coal mining. The news piles more pressure on Kazakhstan’s economy.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Gazprom extends control over Kyrgyzstan’s gas

>>Russia pledges new gas infrastructure system>>

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — On a trip to Bishkek, Alexei Miller, the CEO of Gazprom, said the Russian state-owned gas company would invest $500m into Kyrgyzstan’s gas network system over the next three years.

This is a massive investment by Russia into what is essentially its backyard, especially during these times of economic turbulence. Gas has become a form of diplomacy and control for the Kremlin and it wants to bring Kyrgyzstan closer into its hegemony.

“This is 1.7 times larger than originally planned,” media quoted Mr Miller as saying of the proposed investment plan. “All the planned works will be financed in full.”

Gazprom bought Kyrgyzstan’s gas monopoly for a symbolic $1 in 2013. This year the Kremlin has already earned credit for negotiating a deal between the Uzbek and the Kyrgyz authorities to supply gas to the south of Kyrgyzstan.

And influence over Bishkek is important for Russia. Over the past decade Kyrgyzstan has swung between supporting the West to looking towards the Kremlin. Now that the US military base outside Bishkek has been dismantled (it went last year) the Kremlin has upped its drive to pull Bishkek closer towards it.

Later this year, Kyrgyzstan plans to join the Kremlin-controlled Eurasian Economic Union. It has sold its gas system to Gazprom and has introduced various legislation that apes Russian laws and, many analysts say, curtails personal freedoms.
Russian dominance over Kyrgyzstan is growing.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

GDP grows in Georgia

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP grew by nearly 5% in 2014, media reported, a healthy spurt despite pressures from a faltering Russian economy and a drop in global oil prices (Jan. 30).
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Armenia plans Eurobond issue

FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s finance ministry said it planned to issue Eurobonds later this year to help it through a tough economic period. A sharp fall in the Russian rouble has hit Armenia with analysts warning of a recession. The finance ministry did not specify the type of Eurobond it was considering issuing.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Gazprom is Armenia’s highest taxpayer

FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Gazprom Armenia was the largest taxpayer in Armenia in 2014, media reported, highlighting just how important Russia is to the Armenian economy. Gazprom Armenia owns Armenia’s gas pipeline system. In 2014 it paid taxes of nearly 43b dram ($90m). This was almost double the second highest taxpayer.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Georgia to tighten monetary policy

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Bank chief, Georgy Kadagidze, said he would tighten monetary policy next week after another drop in the value of its lari currency. Mr Kadagidze has said that he would not spend the bank’s reserves heavily to prop up the lari which has lost around 15% of its value since November.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)