Category Archives: Uncategorised

Germany confirms Uzbek base

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The German ambassador to Uzbekistan, Neithart Höfer-Wissing, officially confirmed that Germany was going to maintain its military base near Termez, south Uzbekistan, German media reported. A deal was made between the Uzbek and German government last year, although details were kept secret.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Kazakhstan’s brain drain

>>Net emigration is the first for a decade>>

FEB. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Almost 27,000 people emigrated from Kazakhstan in 2014. That’s 10% more than those who decided to move into Kazakhstan, creating a negative population flow for the first time in a decade, according to official data.

More worrying for the Kazakh authorities is that behind the migration flux was a clear brain drain.

In the early 1990s, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, millions of non-ethnic Kazakhs left for their familial or cultural homeland. Since then, the population in Kazakhstan has steadily increased.

But a report on migration released by the national statistics agency showed that more people left Kazakhstan in 2014 then moved in. Shynasyl Yernazar, of the Kazakhstan Centre for Public-Private Partnerships said the most worrying sign was the number of young people leaving.

“A brain drain among young professionals is happening, as demonstrated by last year’s survey, by which more than one-third of Kazakhstanis between 18 and 28 said they’d like to leave, ” he told the Tengrinews website (Jan. 29).

Better job prospects and access to more meritocratic systems are the main drivers of this trend. Most of the incoming migrants are from poorer countries.

Daniyar Kosnazarov, a researcher at the Presidential Library in Astana and a co-author of a book on youth issues, said it was important the government finds better and more effective ways of engaging with young Kazakhs.

“With the Eurasian Union, the common labour market will make competition tougher as Russians and Belarusians are better skilled,” Mr Kosnazarov told the Bulletin in a telephone interview from Astana.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Azerbaijan’s ratings downgraded

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Azerbaijan’s debt rating to negative from stable because of the fall in oil prices. It said 44% of Azerbaijan’s GDP and 95% of its exports were linked to the energy industry. Despite calls from various foreign institutions, Azerbaijan has failed to diversify.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Berdy worries about the economy

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Perhaps even the phlegmatic Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is beginning to become unnerved by the sudden drop in energy prices. Media reported that he held an unprecedented TV broadcast in which he explained to ordinary Turkmens how he had been forced to devalue the manat currency (Jan. 30).
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

UN criticises Kazakh clampdown

JAN. 28. 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Wrapping up a mission to Kazakhstan, the UN’s special rapporteur Maina Kiai said he was disturbed to hear from Kazakh officials that they had decided to clamp down on protests because they worried about a Ukraine style rebellion.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015

AcerlorMittal cuts workers’ salaries in Kazakhstan

FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — ArcelorMittal, the Luxembourg-based steel manufacturer, said it had temporarily cut salaries for workers at its plant in Temirtau near Karaganda, central Kazakhstan, by 25. ArcelorMittal has struggled to make the plant profitable over the last few years. It has cut its workforce at the plant to 17,000 from over 20,000.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

IS plans to attack Uzbekistan

FEB. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS plans to attack Uzbekistan, an Uzbek security officer told centralasiaonline.com. Other media outlets broadcast the comments although analysts questioned the motive behind them. The Pentagon, which has agreed to send military kit to Uzbekistan, is linked to the website.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Ratings agencies downgrade Armenia

>>Armenia’s economy is closely linked to Russia’s fortunes>>

JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Armenia’s bond ratings to negative from stable, another sign that the Armenian economy is in for a turbulent few months.

Fitch said that it expected Armenia’s economy to slip into a recession this year and the deficit to widen.

“Remittances amount to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of 2014 as 90% of the total come from Russia,” it said in a research note.

Armenia has been hit by the drop in the Russian rouble and the turmoil in Russia’s economy, triggered by a fall in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West after the Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine.

Over the past seven months, Armenia’s dram currency has fallen by nearly 20% against the US dollar despite a steady increase in interest rates.

Of course, it’s not just Armenia which is exposed to the drop in Russia’s economy and currency. The rest of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have also been badly hit.

Armenia, though, is particularly closely linked. It is desperately hoping that there will be some improvement in Russia’s economy.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Iran and Turkmenistan spar in the Caspian Sea

FEB. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran accused Turkmen coastguards of shooting dead an Iranian fisherman in the Caspian Sea, a potentially dangerous flashpoint in this volatile area.

The English-language Tehran Times said that one of the Iranian fishing boasts was sunk after it came under fire and that one person died.

Perhaps more worrying was the next sentence in the state-owned newspaper.

“According to IRNA, Turkmenistan’s hostile behaviour toward Iran has been increased and the only Shia mosque in Ashgabat is on the verge of destruction,” it reported. IRNA is a state-owned Iranian language news agency.

It sounds as if Iran is spoiling for a fight.

Either way, Turkmenistan’s government immediately denied the accusation that its navy had killed an Iranian sailor. Instead, they said that they had arrested four fishermen for illegal fishing.

This is a curious story, made more curious by the Tehran Times’ line about the only Shia mosque in Ashgabat being under threat.

The Caspian Sea is a sensitive area. It is rich in hydrocarbons and also produces sturgeon whose eggs are sold and eaten as caviar. It is also bordered by five countries — Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan — with their own single minded agendas.

Flashpoints in the Caspian Sea, and bellicose language that accompany them, are worth monitoring.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)

Kazakhs buy the rouble

>>Worries about devaluation drive Kazakhs to the rouble>>

FEB. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — People in Kazakhstan have been buying roubles at surprising rates over the past couple of months.

Exchange bureaus data shows that the demand for the Russian currency increased steadily in November and skyrocketed in December despite the rouble losing value against the Kazakh tenge (Jan. 28).

No official reason has been given for the rise in rouble demand but there are several plausible reasons. A Bulletin correspondent in Almaty said many Kazakhs see the ailing rouble as a cheap currency for cross-border shopping.

Of course, Kazakhs may also be speculating that the rouble is valued too cheaply at the moment and that it will rise in value. This is almost certainly true of its value against the Kazakh tenge.

The Kazakh Central Bank has vowed to avoid another devaluation of the tenge — it cut the value of its currency by 20% last year — but the market, and most people on the streets think that another sudden devaluation is inevitable.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)