DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — A Bek Air Fokker-100 passenger plane that crashed shortly after taking off from Almaty. Of the 98 people on board the flight, 12 died.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — Most currencies in the region pushed up with the Georgia lari hitting 2.8335/$1 on Dec. 12, just after a well-trailed interest rate rise. The Georgian Central Bank has been hiking interest rates rapidly over the past few months to try to dampen inflationary pressures. Official inflation now measures 7%, partly pushed up by the weak lari.
The Georgian Central Bank said that inflation would not weaken until March 2020. At 2.8335/$1, the lari hit its strongest level against the US dollar since the beginning of May. By Dec. 27, the lari had weakened slightly to 2.8638/$1.
Other Central Banks kept their interest rates steady as inflationary pressures were considered to be far less of a worry. On Dec. 10, the Armenian Central Bank said that it would keep its key interest rate at 5.5% because inflation measured 1%. Two weeks later, on Dec. 23, Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank said it was keeping its interest rate at 4.25% because inflation was steady at 2.9%.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan and its leader, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, have a lot to live up to in 2020. The Economist’s ‘Country of the year’, it feels like Mr Mirziyoyev has done the easy bit in Uzbekistan. He has taken the low hanging fruit from the tree and ripped into it.
I’m talking, of course, about his economic reforms that have been lauded across newspapers across the globe ahead of a parliamentary election on Dec. 22. He has improved conditions for private businesses to operate, he has pulled together Uzbekistan’s previously complicated exchange rate mechanisms and he has encouraged foreign investors to build factories and create jobs.
Perhaps most striking is the shift to being tourist friendly. In the early 2000s, the trademark reaction from Uzbek police and border guards when you wanted to cross into the country was gruff indignation. Now, it is a cheery hello. This year I made two land crossings into Uzbekistan, one from Shymkent in Kazakhstan and another from Osh in Kyrgyzstan. Neither could have been easier and none of the officials more charming.
And the tourism impact is partly behind this economic boom.
There are more Western tourists in Uzbekistan now than ever before. The infrastructure is still catching up with this expansion but it will get there. Uzbeks are natural hosts and want to make their guests welcome.
But talk around the election of genuine political changes is misguided. Mirziyoyev is no more likely to relinquish power as his predecessor, Islam Karimov. He has shown his ruthlessness by imprisoning senior and potentially troublesome members of the former regime already. All the power is concentrated into his hands. Parliament is there to rubber stamp his decisions and this latest election highlighted these traits.
Uzbek officials are playing a wily game. As they shift Uzbekistan into the spotlight and take their seats at the various international organisations that Karimov denied to them for so long, people will start asking questions about not only the state of the economy and business but also about political plurality, free speech, the media and the ability to object. By carefully stage managing this parliamentary election, with five political parties and a leaders’ debate on television they have given the impression, to some, that Uzbekistan is set for genuine far-reaching political reforms.
This is extremely doubtful, a scepticism highlighted by a parliamentary motion to toughen sentences for unsanctioned demonstrations.
Mirziyoyev faces a daunting 2020.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — With the exception of Georgia Healthcare Group, the region’s main listed shares all rose over the past couple of weeks. Most of the rises were in line with a general equity rise across the globe.
The biggest riser was KAZ Minerals, the Kazakhstan-focused copper producer. It has also been the beneficiary of a rise in copper prices. Other big risers included Anglo Asian Mining, the Azerbaijan-focused gold producer, and Bank of Georgia.
Georgia Capital saw its stock rise by nearly 10% too. This may be linked to the drop in value of Georgia Healthcare shares, down more than 13%.
After a share swap, Georgia Capital increased its stake in Georgia Healthcare to 71% from 57%. This is slightly lower than the top end of its estimates, set at 75%.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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BAKU/DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — Following Georgia and Armenia, Azerbaijan said that it will grant international airlines so-called ‘Open Sky’ access, a move driven by growing demand for stopovers on East-West aviation routes.
By granting the fifth and seventh tenants of the UN’s Freedom of the Air, Azerbaijan will allow international airlines to use Baku, or any other airport, as a stopover between two other destinations.
This is typically used to link Asia and Europe. Airlines will also now be able to use airports in Azerbaijan without flying to or from their home country.
Georgia and Armenia have already pushed ahead with these reforms and have seen their passenger traffic jump as a result.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 27 2019 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s Central Bank said that money transfer provider Western Union had been approved for transactions to and from the country. At the start of the month, the Central Bank took control of the wire transfer sorting system and said that it had blocked the two most-used systems, Western Union and Golden Crown. Golden Crown, by far the most popular money transfer service, has still not been approved as a service provider.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 26 2019 (The Bulletin) — Aigul Karabalina, one of the coordinators of the Feminale exhibition in Bishkek that promoted women’s rights, said that she had been attacked in the street. She linked the attack, in which she suffered concussion and a bruise under her eye, with what she said was a misogynistic backlash against Feminale. She now wants to leave the country. Activists have said that the government has not done enough to promote women’s rights.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 26 2019 (The Bulletin) — Police in Armenia have arrested Razmik Abramyan, the country’s chief obstetrician-gynaecologist and other senior officials as part of an investigation into the alleged sale of babies, the AFP news agency reported. Mr Abramyan is accused of pressuring women into giving up their babies which were then sold on for adoption. He has denied the claims.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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TBILISI/DEC. 24 2019 (The Bulletin) — The United States told Georgia’s government that it had to improve its commitment to democracy after weeks of anti-government protests and a counter-demonstration organised by the Georgian Dream coalition.
The intervention into the domestic politics of the US’ most loyal regional ally will be seen as a blow to Georgia leader Bidzina Ivanishvili, the country’s richest man and the architect of the Georgian Dream coalition.
In a statement, the US State Department said that it supported dialogue between opposition groups and the government.
“We urge the Georgian government to reinforce its commitment to the principles of democracy, individual liberty, and rule of law by ensuring that its judicial and prosecutorial system is free of political bias,” it said.
Rights groups have said that the Georgian Dream government has started to use the courts to pursue personal vendettas, allegations that the Georgian Dream government has denied. Opposition groups also accuse the Georgian Dream government of trying to interfere with the appointment of Supreme Court judges.
But a senior Georgian Dream official brushed off the implied criticism in the US statement.
“Anyone who can read this statement knows very well that it is actually supportive,” said Irakli Kobakhidze, the Georgian Dream executive secretary.
Protesters have demonstrated since MPs voted last month against backing plans to introduce proportional representation at next year’s parliamentary election. The government, though, in an attempted to compromise has said that the number of MPs elected by a first-past-the-post system will be reduced at the election.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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DEC. 23 2019 (The Bulletin) — Around a third of Azerbaijan’s population voted in municipal elections seen as a warm-up to a parliamentary election in February. For the first time since 2005 some genuine opposition activists took part in the election, although many others boycotted it complaining that the terms and conditions of the campaign were weighted against them. Analysts have said that ordinary Azerbaijanis are increasingly frustrated with the economic stagnation and corruption. The results of the election have not yet been announced.
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— This story was first published in issue 432 of the weekly Bulletin on Dec. 27 2019
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