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Food prices rise in Turkmenistan because of coronavirus fears

MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Turkmenistan has also not reported any cases of the coronavirus but Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has reported that much like in Tajikistan, food prices have risen sharply. With regards, the economy, Pres. Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov may be more concerned about the fall in the price of oil than about the coronavirus.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Kazakhstan reports 109 cases of the coronavirus

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan has reported 109 cases of the coronavirus, mainly concentrated in Nur-Sultan and Almaty. One person, a 64yo woman has died. Earlier, the government had placed both cities under a lockdown, hoping to contain the disease but within a week it was clear that this policy was not going to work as officials in the regions started reporting cases.

Two coronavirus cases have been reported in Karaganda, two in Shymkent and a single case each in Aktobe, Almaty region, Zhambyl region and North Kazakhstan. Officials said that the disease has been imported by people returning to Kazakhstan from Europe and Russia.

Both former president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his successor, Pres. Kassym Jomart Tokayev have given TV broadcasts calling for calm.

So far only Nur-Sultan, Almaty and Shymkent have been placed under a lockdown which forces people to remain in their houses.

The authorities have also said that they will extend various visas to foreigners in Kazakhstan. Like the rest of the region, Kazakhstan has closed its borders and its schools.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Armenia reports 290 cases of the coronavirus

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Armenia has been the worst hit in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region with 290 confirmed cases. PM Nikol Pashinyan has ordered tough new measures to try to slow the spread of the virus, including movement restrictions. Officials said that the epicentre of the virus was a sewing factory in Yerevan.

Armenians have been told to stay inside. Cafes, restaurants and businesses have been closed.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Azerbaijan reports 81 cases of the coronavirus

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — The authorities in Azerbaijan have reported 81 cases of the coronavirus, including two deaths. The Formula 1 Grand Prix, scheduled for June and the highlight of the sporting calendar in Azerbaijan, has also been cancelled. Baku was also meant to be hosting matches for the UEFA European Football Championship this summer. It has also been postponed by a year.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Azerbaijan’s Socar confirms major Caspian Sea oil field find

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BAKU/March 19 (The Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state oil company Socar confirmed that it had found a major oil field in the Caspian Sea.

Announcing the find, Socar chairman Rovnag Abdullayev said that this was the first significant oil discovery in Azerbaijan’s territory since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

“Its oil reserves estimated more than 60m tonnes,” he said. “Development of the Karabagh field will significantly contribute to Azerbaijan’s oil incomes.”

Roughly, 60m tonnes of oil equals 440m barrels, although Mr Abdullayev did not say how much of this was recoverable. This is important as recoverable barrels of oil can be a small proportion of the actual reserves. The Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field, the bedrock of Azerbaijan’s economy, by comparison has around 4b barrels of recoverable reserves and the Kashagan field in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea, which Kazakhstan started operating in 2016, has an estimated 9-13b barrels of recoverable oil reserves.

Azerbaijan is still reliant on oil and gas to power its economy. This year it is turning on gas supplies to central Europe pumped from the BP-led Shah Deniz 2 project via a series pipelines known as the South Gas Corridor.

Socar’s partner in the exploration of the Karabagh field is Equinor, the majority state-owned Norwegian energy company that was formerly called Statoil. Equinor owns a 7.27% stake in the ACG project and an 8.71% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline that pumps gas from the Caspian Sea to Turkey. It has not commented on exploration of the Karabagh field.

The Karabagh field, which lies 120km east of Baku, was first discovered by Soviet geologists in the 1950 but was never developed. In the mid-1990s.

Nick Coleman, senior editor at S&P Global Platts, told The Bulletin that although not the biggest oil find, the Karabagh field will still be useful for Azerbaijan.

“You have all the infrastructure there already so it should be relatively low-cost to develop,” he said. “And it is still a pretty decent size. If you’d found that in the North Sea you’d have done very well.”

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Coronavirus spreads through Central Asia and South Caucasus

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YEREVAN/March 26 (The Bulletin) — The Covid-19 virus started to take a grip of the Central Asia and South Caucasus region with only Tajikistan and Turkmenistan not reporting any outbreaks.

Worst hit, by some margin, has been Armenia with 290 cases reported by March 26. Officials said that the source of the outbreak was a sewing factory in Yerevan and people arriving from Iran, which has had one of the worst outbreaks in the world.

From sounding blase about the impact of the coronavirus only two weeks ago, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has now ordered a lockdown along the same lines as European countries, which is hitting businesses.

“Let’s look at the upcoming week as a unique opportunity to read, self-reflect and plan the future of the Armenian nation,” he said.

Neighbouring Georgia and Azerbaijan have also reported cases of the coronavirus, 77 cases and 80 cases each, but have taken different approaches to dealing with it. The Georgian government has imposed a lockdown in Tbilisi but in Azerbaijan the rules are more relaxed.

In Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have imposed lockdowns over their largest cities to try to contain the spread of the coronavirus, although Turkmen and Tajik officials have insisted, much to the amazement of many analysts, that they haven’t had any cases.

On March 21, Tajik towns hosted the traditional celebrations to mark the Persian new year Nowruz festival and Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has talked up the medicinal benefits of various herbs against the coronavirus.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

New law in Kazakhstan will restrict protest rights, says HRW

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s parliament passed the first vote of a new law that human rights activists said would restrict people’s rights to protest (March 26). “The bill still gives the authorities power to approve or reject requests to hold events depending on their form,” Human Rights Watch said in a statement. “Government officials can propose alternative locations, times, and dates. If the organisers do not consent to the change, the event will be cancelled.” HRW also said, though, that parliament had voted against increased restrictions against journalists covering public meetings and protests.

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— This story was first published in issue 441 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Georgia sells US dollar reserves to prop up lari currency

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — In Georgia, the Central Bank sold $140m of its currency reserves to prop up its ailing currency and also released a statement which said that its economy would recover once it has come through the fallout of the coronavirus.

All shops have been closed, other than pharmacies and food shops. As reported on page 5, Georgia’s important tourist industry is facing collapse. Estimates said that 9m people visited Georgia in 2019, double the number from 2012.

The government has not yet downgraded its GDP growth estimates for 2020 but analysts said they expected this to happen within the next few days.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

Coronavirus worries spark panic buying in Tajikistan

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan has still not recorded any cases of the coronavirus but analysts have said that concerns about health safety have still triggered panic buying and food price spikes. Reports from Tajikistan said that staple goods, such as potatoes and meat have increased by around 60% in price.

Thousands of migrant Tajik workers in Russia have also been stranded in Moscow airports after airlines cancelled flights to Tajikistan. An impending recession in Russia, linked to the collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus, will have a knock-on effect on the Tajik economy. It is heavily reliant on remittances sent back from Russia by its migrant workers.

Rather like President Emomali Rakhmon apparently ignoring the spread of the coronavirus, the Tajik Central Bank has not issued any statement on it and on March 20 instead congratulated Tajiks on the Nowruz festival.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020

MARKETS: Coronavirus crashes currencies

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MARCH 26 (The Bulletin) — Currencies across the region crashed to their lowest levels as the full extent of the threat of the coronavirus to the world’s economic system became apparent, the US dollar strengthened and governments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus began to fret whether they would be able to deal with a major health crisis.

The Kazakh tenge was trading down 13% at 447.8/$1, off a low of 456/$1. It follows the price of oil and the Russian rouble closely and with both bouncing around at lows, the tenge was always going to get dragged down. It has never been this low and before the oil price collapse of 2014 was valued at around 188/$1.

The Georgian lari fell by more than 15% to 3.3387/$1, also an all-time low. The currency has been weak for more than a year but policymakers had thought it was beginning to strengthen before the impact of the coronavirus turned it onto a downward trajectory.

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— This story was first published in issue 440 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin