DUSHANBE/JULY 28 (The Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s national energy company Barqi Tojik said that a shortage of water in its reservoirs had reduced its electricity generation capacity and forced it to cut its power exports.
Water shortages and electricity cuts are a concern for Tajikistan as power is one of its main exports. The headline Rogun dam, the biggest hydroelectric dam in the world, is due for completion by 2028 and has been earmarked to boost Tajikistan’s power exports but, without sufficient water, it could become a white elephant.
In a live TV address, a government official from the ministry of power said that water levels in the Vakhsh and Panj rivers were lower than at any time since records began.
“Today, the Nurek reservoir has 17m less water in it than last year,” he said. “If this situation continues, the reservoir will be severely depleted, and in winter there will be serious problems in providing electricity to the population and the national economy.”
The Nurek reservoir is situated about 40km from Dushanbe, slightly lower down the same river system as Rogun. This means that if there is a shortage of water for Nurek, there will be a shortage of water for Rogun.
The government blamed global warming for the water shortages.
“The process of climate change and global warming is going on rapidly on the planet, and its impact, especially this year on Tajikistan, has intensified,” the spokesman said.
The immediate concern, though, is that Tajikistan doesn’t have enough water in its reservoirs to power its electricity generating capacity. Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest country, has already cut electricity transmission levels to Uzbekistan and analysts are worried that it won’t be able to meet its obligations for the World Bank-backed CASA-1000 project.
By 2023, CASA-1000 should be operating a network of electricity transmission masts that will carry power generated in Tajik and Kyrgyz hydro systems, across Afghanistan into Pakistan. The West sees it as a win-win-win. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan earn much-needed cash, Pakistan buys up much-needed power and the West earn kudos.
ENDS
— This story was published in issue 455 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on July 31 2020.
— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2020
