Tag Archives: politics

Comment: Support rises for Armenia daredevil protesters, says Demytrie

OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — When Armenian gunmen calling themselves the Daredevils of Sassoun after a group of lionised 8th century freedom fighters seized a police compound in Yerevan in July, the world’s attention was focused on another story unfolding next door – an attempted coup in Turkey.

Yet what took place in Armenia was an unprecedented strike against the state. Veterans from a war in the 1990s between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the so-called Daredevils held police officers and medics hostage for two weeks before surrendering to the authorities without a fight.

But, by then, thousands of Armenians had come out onto the streets to express their solidarity with the gunmen.

In the eyes of the authorities the gunmen were criminals, official media described them as terrorists. Three policemen died during the siege, afterall. But on the day of their surrender, supporters gathered outside the Opera House in central Yerevan chanting their names and calling them heroes.

One long-term South-Caucasus observer told me that what happened in July was the emergence of a new and radical form of anti-government protest, likely to be repeated in other post-Soviet oligarchies.

There was no single reason for the gunmen’s actions, instead they were driven by an aggregate of problems facing Armenian society.

Poverty, corruption, inequality, and the authorities’ inability to resolve the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Their actions prompted mixed feelings among Armenians. Some were outraged that the gunmen were using violence to achieve their goals. Others saw this aggressive action as necessary but poorly executed.

But many were inspired. Since their arrest, Daredevil supporters have been mythologising them, writing songs about their sacrifice for a noble cause – a more prosperous and free Armenia.

Since the siege and the protests, President Serzh Sargsyan has promised reforms, and a new PM and government has been ushered in. Few, though, believe deeply rooted social and economic problems can be solved so easily.

And the story of the Daredevils is not over. Once a trial date is set, their support base will become active again, demanding their release. That raises the prospect of another spell of street protests in Armenia.

By Rahyan Demytrie, a BBC correspondent in the South Caucasus

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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

Uzbek acting-President approves mass amnesty

OCT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan acting president Shavkat Mirziyoyev approved an amnesty for hundreds of inmates to mark the 25th anniversary of the country’s constitution in December, media reported. Reports said that women, inmates under 18 and over 60 and those who don’t pose any risk to society would be freed. Mr Mirziyoyev is on a charm offensive ahead of an election in December that is expected to give him the presidency on a permanent basis. Islam Karimov, who ruled from 1991, died in September.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Success of conservative party reflects Georgian society

TBILISI, OCT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The success of the Alliance of Patriots party in Georgia’s parliamentary election this month underlines the spread of conservative views amongst ordinary Georgians, analysts said.

The group, set up in 2012, became the first minor party under a new constitution to break through the 5% barrier to automatically win six seats through the proportional representation element of the election in the 150 seat parliament.

The Alliance of Patriots sees itself as staunchly pro-religion and nationalistic, views which, Tbilisi-based analyst Zaal Anjaparidze said, were reflective of a shift in public opinion.

“Opinion polls in Georgia for the last four years have been showing some rise in Euro sceptic thinking and the alienation of parts of Georgian society from liberal values,” he told The Bulletin, views held by other Georgian political commentators.

“They have succeeded in occupying this niche and capitalising on it during the election campaign.”

The Alliance of Patriots may also have an influential role to play in the next parliament as natural allies of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition which is also close to the Orthodox Church. Many of the Georgian Dream’s supporters have said that they want to change the Georgian constitution to state that marriage can only be between a man and woman.

Detractors of the constitutional amendments say it is discriminatory, anti-liberal and contrary to the values of the EU which Georgia aspires to join but its supporters know they have the backing of a large section of the public, as reflected by the success of the Georgian Dream and the Alli- ance of Patriots.

In Tbilisi, Soso, a scientist, reflected the views of many people.

“Before being an Orthodox Christian, I am Georgian,” he said. “Same sex marriage is against our tradition, our beliefs and against the true essence of being Georgian. Such an amendment is absolutely necessary.”

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Alleged coup-plotter in Kazakhstan rejects accusations

OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In his trial for allegedly funding an attempted coup earlier this year in Kazakhstan, Shymkent-based businessman Tokhtar Tuleshov said that although he had given protesters demonstrating against land reforms $100,000, he had not intended to organise an overthrow of the government. A screenshot of Mr Tuleshov, once one of the richest men in Kazakhstan whose wealth was built on brewing beer, showed him in handcuffs looking gaunt while he gave evidence to the court in Astana via a video-link.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Kazakh President returns back to work

OCT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president returned to work after three days off because he had apparently caught a cold, his press office said. Part of Mr Nazarbayev’s image is his fitness and virility and it is rare for him to admit to taking any time off work. The cold apparently caused Mr Nazarbayev to skip a meeting of the FSU-focused CSTO group in Yerevan.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Kyrgyz MPs push back referendum

OCT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — MPs in Kyrgyzstan voted to push back a referendum on changing the country’s constitution to Dec. 11 from an earlier date of Dec. 4. One of the reasons give for pushing back the referendum was to find the original document. This was supposed to have been kept in the President’s office but could not be found. The referendum focuses on strengthening the power of the PM.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Kazakh women’s rights leaders ambivalent on Dariga as future president

ALMATY, OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Dariga Nazarbayeva, daughter of Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, may have been promoted to the Senate in a reshuffle last month, and is now being touted as a presidential successor, but many women appear ambivalent on supporting her candidacy.

The issue of who will succeed president Nursultan Nazarbayev, 76, as next president dominates Kazakh politics but Ms Nazarbayeva, 53, is a divisive figure and she fails to generate mass support among what should be her natural support base — women — as interviews with women’s rights advocates suggested.

Dina Smailova, who heads a group fighting domestic and sexual violence called ‘Don’t be silent’, said that while Ms Nazarbayeva had been supportive of their work, she may not be the right person to lead the country.

“I can view her candidacy as a woman who is educated, a modern woman but why not consider another candidate?” she said.

Women’s rights and domestic abuse moved into the mainstream in Kazakhstan this year after a well- known female TV presenter was badly beaten up by her husband at a petrol station outside Almaty.

According to the UN, 500 women are killed each year in Kazakhstan by their partners.

Aida Alzhanova, chair of Adam Damu charity and a former UN expert for women’s equality said Ms Nazarbayeva had not done enough to promote women’s rights.

“I didn’t know Dariga was promoting women’s rights,” she said. “Here gender inequality in politics and business is gradually moving into the domestic sphere.”

She did say, though, that she would consider supporting Ms Nazarbayeva.

“If she wins in a fair election and if she has a clear gender policy that fits with international norms and standards, then I will vote for her,” she said.

The third women’s rights leader interviewed by The Conway Bulletin said that she would support Dariga Nazarbayeva if she wanted to become president.

“I want to believe that if a woman becomes president there will be pos- itive changes in the country,” said Marianna Gurina, president of the Ulagatty Zhanuya charity, which pro- motes family values and women’s rights.

“Yes, I support her candidacy because I think she, as a woman understands women.”

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

A presidential election in Turkmenistan

OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> So, an election in Turkmenistan then. Will it be close?

>> No, not at all. The incumbent president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, will clean up and win probably with more than 95% of the vote. He won 97% of the vote at the last presidential election in 2012.

>> Right. He must be a popular chap, then.

>> Again, unlikely, but it is very hard to tell. Since he was officially elected president in January 2007, Berdymukhamedov has carefully built up a personality cult to rival any other around the world. Last year he unveiled a statue of himself sitting on a horse with a flowing cloak. It was all very Roman. Berdymukhamedov pretty much makes all the key decisions in Turkmenistan. He runs the the economic, foreign and domestic policies. He’s not a big delegator. The problem is that it is very difficult to know how genuinely popular, or unpopular, he is at the moment as free media doesn’t exist in Turkmenistan. What we do know is that although Berdymukhamedov can take credit for opening up the economy and for developing its gas export routes, Turkmenistan is suffering, just like its neighbours, from a sharp regional economic downturn linked a drop in energy prices and a recession in Russia.

>> What do you mean?

>> Again, information that is 100% reliable is hard to come by but we do know that government salaries have been paid late and that people are blocked from transferring cash into foreign currencies. There have also been a handful of small protests in the past couple of years in Ashgabat which are vitally important in judging the mood. These have focused on domestic issues, such as satellite dishes on buildings and the destruction of suburban housing to clear ground for a new Olympic village. They are not directly political but they are good indicators that not all is as steady as the Turkmen government, and Berdymukhamedov in particular, would like. Protests are extremely rare in Turkmenistan so any indicator that people are prepared to stand up to the authorities must be taken seriously.

>> Does this make the election is risky for Berdymukhamedov?

>> Turkmenistan is a tightly controlled police state so this is unlikely. He also had to hold a presidential election next year. Until he changed the constitution last month, presidential terms in Turkmenistan were set at five years. The previous election was in 2012. He’s now changed the length of a presidential term to seven years so once next February’s election is out of the way, he won’t have to deal with another until 2024. This election will be something for the Turkmen authorities to carefully manage but beyond that it shouldn’t trigger any major problems.

>> Got it. And how will the international community deal with it?

>> This is a tricky one. The Russians and the Chinese mainly want a reliable partner and stability. They have this in Berdymukhmaedov and won’t want the the boat to be rocked, so to speak. The West, and Europe in particular, have a different agenda. They want Turkmenistan’s gas but are also interested in human rights. It’s unlikely that they will send vote monitors and they will complain about the lack of free speech but, by and large, there is very little that they can really do.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgia’s election committee sets run-offs

OCT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Election Commission set Oct. 30 as the date for run- offs in at least 48 single mandate seats which failed to return a majority winner in a parliamentary election on Oct. 8. The vote is important because, although the Georgian Dream is all-but certain to win a majority in the 150-seat parliament, if it wins a total of 113 seats it will be able to make constitutional changes.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Kazakh President’s grandson says he bought 49% stake in Transtelecom in 2015

ALMATY, OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — After 18 months of rumours, Nurali Aliyev, grandson of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, revealed himself to be the mystery buyer of a 49% stake in Kazakhstan’s telecoms network, Transtelecom.

The 8.9b tenge ($48m at the time) sale was agreed in May 2015, but the identity of the buyer was shielded from the public. At the time of the deal, Mr Aliyev was the deputy mayor of Astana. Kazakhstan’s state-owned railway company, Temir Zholy still holds a 51% stake in Transtelecom.

In an interview with the pro-government Tengrinews website, Mr Aliyev confirmed rumours on opposition websites that he had bought the stake.

“One of the reasons for my departure from the government service was the acquisition of a 49% stake in Transtelecom as part of the privatisation programme,” he said.

Mr Aliyev, 31, quit as deputy mayor of Astana in March this year, saying that he wanted to concentrate on his business commitments. He had held the position since Dec. 2013.

In Kazakhstan, it is fairly com- monplace for senior government members to own stakes in businesses.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)