APRIL 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shares at Kazakh copper miner KAZ Minerals jumped 5% immediately after Q1 results showed that copper production had nearly doubled from a year earlier. KAZ Minerals, listed on the London Stock Exchange, used to be called Kazakhmys. It is focused on mining low-cost open pit mines.
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(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)
MAY 4 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia cancelled a $240m debt owed by Kyrgyzstan which had been due to be paid off by 2025. The statement from the office of Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev said that the loan had been given to Kyrgyzstan on Sept. 20 2012. The statement did not say why Russia had decided to wipe off the debt but it has previously handed out soft loans and cancelled debt in return for political favours.
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(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)
APRIL 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Rounding off a three day tour of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif said that Iran could help Kyrgyzstan develop its hydropower sector. Kyrgyzstan has been looking for partners to develop its hydropower sector ever since Russia pulled out of pledged investments during a recession in 2015/16. For Kyrgyzstan, electricity generated by hydropower is seen as a vital export. It has signed deals to sell electricity to Pakistan and India through the US-backed CASA-1000 scheme, due to come on line over the next couple of years. For Iran, investing in Kyrgyzstan’s hydro sector would help it develop links in the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 326, published on April 28 2017)
BISHKEK, APRIL 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Tbilisi, Ashgabat and Bishkek in a three day charm offensive designed to bolster support and trade across a pliant Central Asia and South Caucasus region.
In Ashgabat Mr Zarif met with President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, in Tbilisi he met PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili and President Giorgi Margvelashvili, and in Bishkek he met with Pres. Almazbek Atambayev.
Of all the meetings, perhaps talks with Mr Berdymukhamedov in Ashgabat were the most important. Turkmenistan and Iran had been developing trade intensively until Turkmen officials accused their Iranian counterparts of not paying a $1.8b gas bill. They have said that they will take the case to an international arbitration court unless it is resolved.
Although no mention of the disputed gas bill was made after the meeting in Ashgabat, media did quote Turkmen foreign minister Rasit Meredow as saying that Mr Zarif’s trip was a “big step in political and diplomaticrelations”.
Since some Western sanctions were lifted on Iran last year, the Iranian government has been working to promote its interests in its near abroad. Major inroads have been made in promoting relations in Central Asia/South Caucasus, such as easing visa rules and bilateral investment deals.
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(News report from Issue No. 325, published on April 17 2017)
APRIL 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Police in Russia arrested a second Kyrgyz man, Abror Azimov, as being the mastermind behind the bomb attack in St Petersburg on April 3 that killed at least 14 people. The arrest piles more pressure on the authorities in Kyrgyzstan to crack down on cells of radical Islamists that analysts have said are spearheading extremist attacks.
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(News report from Issue No. 325, published on April 17 2017)
MARCH 29 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s Supreme Court upheld the detention of opposition leader Omurbek Tekebaev who was arrested when he tried to enter the country in February. The authorities have accused Mr Tekebaev, who is a leader in the Ata Meken party, of bribe-taking and fraud. His detention sparked off anti-government street demonstrations in Bishkek and in the south of the country. Also in Kyrgyzstan, the security services confirmed that it had charged another senior member of the Ata Meken party, acting chairman Almambet Shykmamatov, with fraud while he was an auditor at the State Accounting Chamber in 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)
APRIL 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In Edinburgh, where The Conway Bulletin has its editorial HQ, the green shoots of a timid spring are finally beginning to breakthrough after a long, grey winter.
And it’s the same scenario for the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. A deep, bleak winter has enveloped them since mid-2014 but now, finally, data suggests a revival is on the horizon.
In this week’s newspaper, we report that both the Kyrgyz and Armenian Central Banks have kept their key interest rates steady. This, in itself, is a victory. Armenia has been furiously cutting its rates from a high of 10.5% in 2015 to 6% to try to stimulate growth and beat deflation. Now it says this policy has gone far enough and that inflation of around 4% is predicted this year.
In Kyrgyzstan, the economic news is even more upbeat. In its statement explaining just why it had kept interest rates steady, the Central Bank said that it was no longer having to intervene in the money market to keep the som currency from sliding. It also said that the economy had grown by 5.4% in January and February compared to the same period in 2016.
Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are two of the smaller economies in the region but the larger economies are also reporting positive news.
In Georgia, the statistics agency said that the economy had grown by 4.8% in the first two months of the year, pushed up by a growth in exports and an all- important rise in remittances. Georgia may also be benefiting from several local factors. Improved relations with Russia have given exports a major boost, especially wine, and the scrapping of visa regulations for Iranians has encouraged a large rise in tourists and business trips.
For the region’s two major economies the data has been less flattering, although there are still signs of improvements. In Azerbaijan, there is disagreement between economists on whether its economy will grow or not after it shrank by 3.8% in 2016. It’s dependent on oil, and prices are currently hovering around $50/barrel, above the anticipated $40/barrel.
In Kazakhstan, the Central Bank last month cut its interest rate and gave its most upbeat assessment of the economy, pointing out that inflation was under control and growth was expected.
And if you’re still not convinced about those green shoots of economic recovery, and that’s understandable as, just like a Scottish spring, they are fragile, take a look at the Azerbaijani manat and the Kazakh tenge. They are both up against the US dollar by more than 5% this year.
By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin
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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)
APRIL 2 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyz opposition leaders demanded an investigation into wounds found on Sadyr Japarov, a former MP who was detained last month after he arrived back in Kyrgyzstan after four years of self- imposed exile. Mr Japarov, who has been detained on suspicion of involvement in various financial crimes, was found with cuts to his neck which the authorities have said were self-inflicted during a suicide attempt. In March hundreds of Mr Japarov’s supporters had clashed with police in Bishkek. Mr Japarov is one of several opposition leaders who have been arrested.
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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)
BISHKEK, APRIL 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Scrutiny of Central Asia as a breeding ground for Islamic extremists intensified after Russian security forces named 22-year-old Akbarzhon Jalilov from Kyrgyzstan as the suicide bomber who killed at least 14 people on Monday on the St Petersburg metro.
In the 48 hours following the attack, Russian police detained six people from Central Asia who they said were recruiting for the IS extremist group. Russia is a major destination for migrant workers from Central Asia and a vital source of remittance flows.
One of the 14 people confirmed dead in the bomb attack was a Kazakh national who had been studying in St Petersburg.
In Kyrgyzstan, people were split on the implications of the St Petersburg bomb. Many people worried about a backlash against Kyrgyz migrant workers in Russia.
“The terrorist act has caused damage to our country’s image. All over the world, they now write that the terrorist was from Kyrgyzstan,” Azamat, from Karakol in eastern Kyrgyzstan, said. “Now, many of our migrants in the Russian Federation will be affected by the terrorist attack. There will be daily inspections and other actions [by police].”
Jalilov, the alleged suicide bomber, was an ethnic Uzbek of Kyrgyz nationality who was brought up in Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan. Media reports, though, said that he had been living in Russia for a few years and had taken Russian citizenship. Earlier this year an Uzbek man was arrested in Istanbul for killing at 39 people at a nightclub on New Year’s eve.
In 2016, security forces said 600 Kyrgyz travelled to Syria to join IS and many people in Bishkek were worried that these people were returning and spreading extreme ideology.
“Radical Islam is guilty of this bombing. Some people go abroad to receive religious education, are recruited by radicals and come back,” said Dmitry, 36.
Central Asia is the focus of a debate over whether it has become the main recruiting ground for IS.
Those that say it has, have said the mix of frustrated young men with little prospects, the rise of militant Islam and the harsh tactics used by the security forces are pushing people into the arms of extremists.
Others have said this description is overblown. Edward Lemon, a research scholar at Columbia University specialising in extremism in Central Asia, said the region is not providing IS with a flow of recruits.
“These isolated attacks do not necessarily indicate that Central Asia is becoming a hotbed of extremism. In fact, the evidence suggests a slowing of the flow of recruits to IS and al-Nusra in recent months,” he said.
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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)
MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 5%, half the level it was 12 months ago, citing an improvement in the economy and a slowdown in inflation. Importantly it said that the economy had grown in the first two months of the year and that the som currency had stabilised without the Central Bank’s interference. Currencies and economies in the Central Asia/South Caucasus region have been hit hard since 2014 by a recession in Russia and fall in oil prices.
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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)