Tag Archives: inflation

Markets: Kazakh Central Bank decides against interest rate cut

APRIL 16  2024 (The Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge shifted up by 0.6% after the Kazakh Central Bank decided not to cut interest rates against market expectation. It is now trading at 448.4/$1, recovering from around 476/$1 six months ago.

The Central Bank said that inflation in March measured an annualised 9.1% which was slightly above expectations and that although global grain prices were recovering from the shock of the war in Ukraine, domestic pressures were keeping prices high.

“The domestic economy is still under inflationary pressure due to strong domestic demand and unanchored inflation expectations,” it said. Kazakhstan’s Central Bank targets inflation of 5%.

In equities, analysts said that heavy flooding in north and west Kazakhstan had spooked investors who had sold off stock in Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan fintech company which owns a super-app that most Kazakhs use to pay bills, pay taxes and buy consumer products.

It traded down as low as $103 in the past week, having hit a high of $123 after listing on the New York Stock Exchange in January. 

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Kazakh Central Bank keeps interest rates steady

JAN. 13 2023 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 16.75% because it said that inflation was still rising, although more slowly than previously. Annualised inflation in Kazakhstan now stands at around 20.3%. In Georgia, the Central Bank said that inflation measured around 9.8%. Kyrgyzstan was the only country in the region to lower interest rates last year.

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— This story was published in issue 532 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Jan. 16 2023

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2023

Kazakh inflation hits Steppe Cement profit

JAN. 11 2023 (The Bulletin) — London-listed Steppe Cement said that high inflation in Kazakhstan would hit its profit in 2022, forcing its share price to drop by 15%. The announcement was significant because it was one of the first times that business has admitted that high inflation in Kazakhstan, at 20%, is hurting it.

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— This story was published in issue 532 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Jan. 16 2023

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2023

Kazakhstan and Tajikistan increase interest rates

ALMATY/OCT. 25 2021 (The Bulletin) — The Kazakh and Tajik Central Banks both raised their interest rates to try to dampen soaring inflation.

Commenting on pushing Kazakhstan’s interest rate up by a quarter of a percentage point to 9.75%, its highest level since April 2020, the Kazakh Central Bank said that annualised inflation hit 8.9% in September.

“The external inflation situation remains unfavourable. This is due to high world food prices, supply disruptions, rising costs of transportation, raw materials and energy, as well as the recovery of domestic demand,” it said.

On a more positive note, the Central Bank said that retail had started to recover after an easing off of the coronavirus pandemic.

In Dushanbe, the Central Bank raised its interest rate to 13.25% from 13%. It also said that inflation measured 9.6%, double its official target.

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— This story was published in issue 505 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Oct. 28 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Uzbek inflation rising fast

OCT. 21 2021 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s Central Bank said that inflation in September was 10.8%, higher than its baseline scenario forecast. Importantly, it said that food and energy prices, two of the main expenses for ordinary people, have risen faster, with food prices jumping by 14.4% and energy prices rising by 23%. Inflation in the region is eating into GDP rates and economists have said that it is acting as a brake on growth.

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— This story was published in issue 505 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Oct. 28 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Kazakh Central Bank keeps interest rates steady

JUNE 9 2021 (The Bulletin) — The Kazakh Central Bank kept its interest rate at 9% because of higher-than-hoped-for inflation. It said that inflation will exceed its 4-6% target corridor this year because of high commodity prices but that GDP growth would be between 3.6% and 3.9%, a slight rise on an earlier estimate.

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— This story was published in issue 487 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on June 9 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Uzbekistan keeps interest rates steady, says inflation is too high

MARCH 11 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s Central Bank declined to cut its key interest rate from 14% because it said that inflation was still too high. Inflation in Uzbekistan is currently at 11.4%, pushed up by rising domestic demand, an increase in global food prices and a rise in fuel prices. Uzbekistan’s interest rate has measured 14% since mid-2020.

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— This story was published in issue 475 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on March 15 2021

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Armenian Central Bank raises interest rate to support currency

FEB. 2/3 2021 (The Bulletin) — Armenia’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate to 5.5% from 5.25% to strengthen its currency, the dram, which has dropped 6% since it lost a war against Azerbaijan for control of Nagorno-Karabakh last year. In neighbouring Georgia, the Central Bank there kept its key interest rate steady at 8% because it said that inflation had stalled because of the pandemic. 

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— This story was first published in issue 471 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Coronavirus pandemic supresses inflation in Uzbekistan

JAN. 21 2021 (The Bulletin) — The annual rate of inflation in Uzbekistan slowed to 11.1% in 2020 from 15.2% in 2019 because of a drop in demand linked to the coronavirus pandemic, Uzbekistan’s Central Bank said in a statement explaining why it kept interest rates steady at 14%. The exception to this drop in inflation was food prices which continued to rise. The Central Bank said, for example, that eggs rose in price by 42%. 

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— This story was first published in issue 469 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021

Fuel prices rising in Tajikistan

JAN. 18 2021 (The Bulletin) — Fuel prices are rising in Tajikistan, media reported by quoting local taxi drivers who said that there had been a 10% increase in the past week. Analysts said that the fuel price increase is linked to a drop in imports of fuel from Russia and Kazakhstan. Tajikistan does not have its own oil refinery and is reliant on imports.

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— This story was first published in issue 469 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2021