JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Azerbaijan’s debt rating to negative from stable because of the fall in oil prices. It said 44% of Azerbaijan’s GDP and 95% of its exports were linked to the energy industry. Despite calls from various foreign institutions, Azerbaijan has failed to diversify.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
>>Armenia’s economy is closely linked to Russia’s fortunes>>
JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Armenia’s bond ratings to negative from stable, another sign that the Armenian economy is in for a turbulent few months.
Fitch said that it expected Armenia’s economy to slip into a recession this year and the deficit to widen.
“Remittances amount to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of 2014 as 90% of the total come from Russia,” it said in a research note.
Armenia has been hit by the drop in the Russian rouble and the turmoil in Russia’s economy, triggered by a fall in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West after the Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine.
Over the past seven months, Armenia’s dram currency has fallen by nearly 20% against the US dollar despite a steady increase in interest rates.
Of course, it’s not just Armenia which is exposed to the drop in Russia’s economy and currency. The rest of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have also been badly hit.
Armenia, though, is particularly closely linked. It is desperately hoping that there will be some improvement in Russia’s economy.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP grew by nearly 5% in 2014, media reported, a healthy spurt despite pressures from a faltering Russian economy and a drop in global oil prices (Jan. 30).
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In new 2015 predictions, the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said
Kazakhstan would grow by 1.5% this year, a sharp drop from the 5.1%
predicted in September. The EBRD downscaled Kazakhstan’s growth
estimates because of ongoing rouble and oil price falls.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Nazarbayev summons his chief economic lieutenant for talks>>
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan
Nazarbayev summoned the head of Samruk Kazyna, the country’s
sovereign wealth fund, for crisis talks over the falling price of
oil and the drop in the value of the Russian rouble.
The meeting highlights just how worried Mr Nazarbayev and his
senior ministers are about the recent economic downturn. Most major
financial institutions now expect the Kazakh economy to grow by
only 1.5% this year, a relatively small amount.
When Mr Nazarbayev announced last year a new economic policy, he
aimed to enter the New Year with a Keynesian industrial programme
that would have injected billions into construction projects and
subsidies.
Currency depreciations and oil markets, however, have shattered the
plan.
After his meeting with Mr Nazarbayev, Umirzak Shukeyev, the Samruk
Kazyna chief, said: “The goal is to reduce administrative costs by
20% and investment engagements by 18%.”
This, then, is the opposite of what had been promised.
The most feared buzzwords on the streets from Almaty to Atyrau are
devaluation and austerity. Several consulting and investment firms
have forecast a devaluation in the first quarter. The research
branch of Kazakhstan’s second largest lender, Halyk Bank, told
Bloomberg that they deem a depreciation of the tenge as inevitable.
The leader of the National Business Association, Rakhim Oshakbayev
publicly asked the government to protect private companies from the
risk of devaluation (Jan. 20).
In Kazakhstan, the government is expected to act to reverse the
economic downturn but with no significant increase in hydrocarbon
and commodity output, its only option is to dig into the reserves
of the sovereign fund and hope for the best, or so it often seems.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) halved its predictions for Azerbaijan’s growth rate in 2015 to 1.5% from 3% in 2014. The downturn in the Russian economy and the fall in the value of oil have hit Azerbaijan.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite the downturn in Russia’s economy, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted decent growth for Uzbekistan’s economy in 2015 of around 7%. The EBRD heavily slashed growth rates of Uzbekistan’s neighbours. Uzbekistan’s economy is more sheltered than its neighbours.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The drop in the price of gas and oil will hit Turkmenistan’s economy, although it will still grow by nearly 10% in 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its updated growth forecasts. Turkmenistan’s economy is protected somewhat by contracts with China.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
DEC. 22 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — In a televised address, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev said he had a plan to counter falling oil prices even if they fell below $40/barrel. Oil prices have now halved from their height last summer to around $50/barrel. Kazakhstan has been building up a reserve of cash to deal with a slump.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhs are becoming more comfortable paying for products on their credit and debit cards, the research website ranking.kz said. It said that for the year to the end of October transactions using either credit or debit cards had risen by 22%. This increase should aid consumer spending.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)