JULY 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan has hired Citigroup, HSBC and JP Morgan to advise it on issuing a $1b Eurobond, Reuters reported quoting unnamed market sources. Kazakhstan has been saying for months that it is weighing up issuing its first sovereign debt since 2000.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 17 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Armenian and Iranian chambers of commerce have signed a deal designed to increase business between the countries, media reported. Armenia has been slowly building ties with Iran. Earlier this month, reportedly under pressure from the US, Georgia scrapped visa-free travel for Iranians.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 19 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fresh figures showed that Armenia’s economy is expanding steadily, media reported. Armenia’s economic activity index increased by 4.4% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2012. Using the same comparison, industrial output was 8.4% high in the first six months of 2013.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 16 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The proportion of bad loans in Azerbaijan will drop to 11% from 14% within the next 12 – 18 months, the ratings agency Moody’s said in a new report on the Azerbaijani banking sector. Moody’s regarded bad loans as those overdue by more than 90 days. It gave an upbeat assessment of Azerbaijan’s banking sector and said that real GDP would rise by 3.5% this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 19 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan produced 21.8m tonnes of oil in the first half of 2013, a 1.8% drop compared to the same period in 2012, media reported quoting official statistics.
Despite the drop, this is actually a reasonable success. The fall between Jan.-June 2012 and Jan.-June 2011 was 7.2%. This output drop had become a major problem not only to Azerbaijan’s economy, which is reliant on energy sales, but also to the country’s prestige. So much so, in fact, that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stepped in.
Last year Mr Aliyev publicly criticised British energy company BP for not producing enough oil from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) field in the Caspian Sea. This is Azerbaijan’s largest oil producing project and central to its future earnings.
BP now seems to have made good on their pledge to halt ACG’s output decline. Its production in the first half of the year stabilised and averaged 666,000 barrels per day, media quoted BP’s regional manager Gordon Birrell as saying. This is around 70% of Azerbaijan’s daily total.
The oil boom years for Azerbaijan are, if not waning, slightly diminishing. After Russia and Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan is the largest oil producer in the former Soviet Union but total production has slipped nearly 16% from 51m tonnes in 2010 to 43m tonnes last year. There is still plenty of oil for Azerbaijan to produce but gas is seen as the next big thing.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 18 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Overall consumer prices in Azerbaijan fell 1.1% in June, according to the official statistics agency. Food prices dropped by 2.6%, driving the fall. This is the second consecutive month that the consumer price index in Azerbaijan has fallen. In May prices dropped by 0.4%.
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(News report from Issue No. 144, published on July 22 2013)
JULY 10 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s economy yo-yos. Last year, it shrank by nearly 1%; this year estimates predict that it will grow by 7%.
The yo-yo effect depends on political stability, Kyrgyzstan has suffered two violent revolutions since 2005, as well as the health of its biggest industrial project, the Kumtor gold mine. Last year Kumtor, owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, had a poor year and dragged down the entire national economy (it accounts for about 12% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP).
And mitigating this yo-yo effect is one of the main reasons that international donors have pledged $1.7b in grants and loans to Kyrgyzstan over the next five years.
Earlier this year, the Kyrgyz government, led by President Almazbek Atambayev unveiled an ambitious $13b growth plan. Much of this, the government said at the time, relied on the financial might of Western donors and investors underpinning this ambition.
At a conference in Bishkek on July 10, the World Bank, the IMF and others matched this ambition, giving Kyrgyzstan the chance to stabilise and grow its economy. This should improve the investment environment for foreign companies looking for a foothold in Central Asia too.
The alternative for Kyrgyzstan is more economic, and political, instability
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
JULY 10 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Sighting lower-than-expected inflation, the Tajik Central Bank cut its key interest rate to a record low of 6.1%. It had previously cut rates to 6.5% in August 2012. Inflation across Central Asia and the South Caucasus has generally slowed, although the World Bank has said food price rises may reverse this.
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
JULY 8 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s government voted to scrap import duty and VAT on a series of oil-based products used in the construction and road-building sectors, media reported. These products include petroleum bitumen which is used as asphalt to build roads. Duties on these products are due to be scrapped on Jan. 1 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
JULY 10 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan will use $5b from its sovereign wealth fund to help young people get mortgages, a senior official from the presidential administration said. The announcement, coming shortly before a presidential election, could help young people buy a house or an apartment in Baku, an increasingly expensive property market.
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)