OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Hiding behind timid smiles, officials from Central Asia and the South Caucasus oil and gas producing countries continue to say that the worst may be over for the region’s economic slump.

In the medium term, Kazakhstan will constantly boast about the restart of the giant Kashagan offshore project and Azerbaijan will try everything it can to attract investments for the Southern Gas Corridor, the pipeline network that will pump gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe.

Production, however, will continue to disappoint. Output will be flat in Kazakhstan, given a lift by Kashagan finally coming back on-stream after a three year delay, and decline in Azerbaijan.

Both countries have, on different occasions, praised the decision by OPEC, the oil producers’ lobby group, to freeze production to help push prices up again.

But behind the propaganda, lies a problem, which the IMF highlighted in its latest report: these countries will face higher fiscal breakeven oil prices in the next few years, piling pressure on their economies.

In April, the IMF said that the breakeven prices that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan would need to balance their government budgets in 2016 were $47, $88 and $42.7/barrel respectively.

In a report this week, the IMF said breakeven prices for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan had grown to $71 and $50.4/barrel respectively.

For 2016, oil prices are unlikely to average above $50/barrel, which means that the three major energy exporters in the region will have to use their reserves to prop up their economies. Officials may be happier now than in January budget issues are far from sorted.

ENDS