OCT. 27 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Six months after the bankruptcy of Armenia’s national airline Armavia, Air Armenia began to service its first scheduled route between Yerevan and Moscow. Air Armenia, set up in 2003 as a private air transport company, is looking to fill the void that Armavia’s bankruptcy left.
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(News report from Issue No. 158, published on Oct. 30 2013)
OCT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s envoy to the UN, Agshin Mehdiyev, accused Armenia of using refugees from Syria to bolster its hold on Nagorno-Karabakh, the sliver of land that the two countries dispute. Roughly 10,000 ethnic Armenians have fled a civil war in Syria. Reports have said that Armenia has resettled some of them in Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
SEPT. 25 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Inflation in Armenia continued to climb in August, bucking the Central Bank’s forecast. Media reported that in August prices were 9.3% higher than the same time last year. In July annualised inflation had been 8.5%. This is double the Central Bank’s target. It has increased interest rates to 8.5% this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
YEREVAN/Armenia, OCT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — President Serzh Sargsyan’s announcement last month that Armenia will join the Russia-led Customs Union was a surprise both for officials and local people.
Armenia has been negotiating to join the EU for four years and a document representing progress was expected to be signed in November in Vilnius, Lithuania. Still, 14 of the 20 people interviewed by The Conway Bulletin on a mild September evening in central Yerevan supported the move.
Importantly, though, they backed Armenia’s entry into the Customs Union, which also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus, not to improve their economic prospects but because they considered Russia the best defender of peace from perceived Azerbaijani aggression.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are still officially at war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia maintains a large military base in Armenia.
“We’re living in very dangerous times. Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran, war. We’ve no other alternative,” said 33-year-old Minasyan Levon.
Liana Gevorgyan agreed. “We’ve no choice,” she said. “It’s better than feeling insecure.”
Some also said Russia’s traditional Christian Orthodox values were important.
“The EU is not only about trade, it’s also about homosexuals, feminism and a range of Western moral norms which ruins our country and its identity,” said Davit, 40.
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(Correspondent’s Notebook from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 23 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Yerevan sentenced Vardan Sedrakian, a candidate in a presidential election in February, to jail for trying to assassinate a rival. Gunmen shot and injured Paruyr Hayrikian, also a presidential candidate, a few weeks before the election on Feb. 18. The attempted assassination nearly delayed the vote.
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(News report from Issue No. 153, published on Sept. 25 2013)
SEPT. 23 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kim Kardashian, the 32-year-old Los Angeles-based ethnic Armenian, is best known across the globe for starring in a reality TV show. Now she’ll also be known, in some circles at least, for lending her name to Armenia’s inaugural sovereign debt issue.
Armenia’s $700m Eurobond issue on Sept. 23, unofficially dubbed the ‘Kardashian bond’, did rather well. This was Armenia’s first sovereign debt issue and a real test of investors’ confidence in the country and appetite for risk in the South Caucasus.
Armenia’s government had said it needed to raise the cash to pay back a $500m loan it borrowed from Russia in 2009 to weather the global financial crisis.
It’s been a busy, somewhat controversial, year for Armenia with a disputed presidential election in February and a surprise decision last month to eschew closer ties with the EU to instead join Russia’s Customs Union. The economy, too, has caused some concern with inflation hovering around 9%, far above the Central Bank’s target.
Regardless, investors warmed to Armenia’s Kardashian bond and the initial yield on the 7-year bond was shortened to 6.25% from 6.375%, according to Reuters.
Not a bad debut on the sovereign debt market for Armenia and Kim Kardashian.
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(News report from Issue No. 153, published on Sept. 25 2013)
SEPT. 13 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Overriding concerns from the EU, Armenia said it would extend the lifespan of its Metsamor nuclear power plant to 2026. The lifespan of the Soviet-era Metsamor, built 30km west of Yerevan in an area prone to earthquakes, had already been extended last year to 2020 from 2016. Metsamor provides 40% of Armenia’s power.
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(News report from Issue No. 152, published on Sept. 18 2013)
SEPT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Inflation in Armenia continues to rise, bucking the Central Bank’s prediction it would fall after a 0.5% interest rate rise last month, media reported. For the year to the end of August, inflation in Armenia measured 9.3%, up from 8.5% in July. Last month, the Central Bank raised interest rates to 8.5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 151, published on Sept. 11 2013)
SEPT. 11 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Serzh Sargsyan, the Armenian president, sent shock waves across the South Caucasus and Europe when he signed Armenia up for Russia’s Customs Union.
The Kremlin set up the Customs Union in 2011 to ease trade between its partners and to draw them in closer. Commentators have dubbed it a Eurasian Union to counter the European Union.
Until Armenia moved into the Customs Union, only Kazakhstan and Belarus had joined. Kyrgyzstan has said it will join and Tajikistan has also been eyeing up membership.
Few though predicted Armenia’s jump towards Russia.
Mr Sargsyan’s decision to move into the Customs Union was a snub for European diplomats.
It’s not, perhaps, that surprising though. Armenia has been casting around for friends to provide a bulwark against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia is still officially at war with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is a key Azerbaijan ally.
Russia has given financial and military support to Armenia and maintains a large army base in Armenia. Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, also owns 80% of Armenia’s gas distributor and has been trying to buy the outstanding 20%.
Even so, Armenia’s move into the Customs Union will be felt across the region for years.
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(News report from Issue No. 151, published on Sept. 11 2013)
AUG. 29 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A diplomatic scandal centred on the status of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to lead to the sacking of Lithuania’s envoy in Baku.
Lithuania’s media is reporting that Dalia Grybauskaite, the Lithuanian President, is likely to fire her envoys to Hungary and Azerbaijan after they were recorded describing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia.
The diplomatic spat not only embarrasses Lithuania but also acts as a wider reminder of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ultra-sensitive status. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still at war over Nagorno-Karabakh and only a 1994 UN negotiated ceasefire holds a shaky peace.
There are still almost weekly shoot-outs between the opposing armies and Azerbaijan has pledged to re-take the enclave from Armenia-backed forces.
Ms Grybauskaite has, apparently, acted after a recording of a private conversation between Arturas Zurauskas, Lithuania’ ambassador in Baku, and Renatas Juska, Lithuania’s ambassador in Budapest, surfaced on YouTube in July.
In the recording the men agree that Nagorno-Karabakh should be considered Armenian. They also refer to the enclave by its Armenian name, Artsakh. Azerbaijan stakes its own historical claim to the province.
The incident also serves as a reminder of the increased diplomatic clout that Azerbaijan’s burgeoning energy wealth has now given it.
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(News report from Issue No. 150, published on Sept. 2 2013)