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Azerbaijan wants more Arab tourists

JAN. 31 (The Conway Bulletin) – Perhaps casting admiring glances at its key trading partner Turkey, Azerbaijan said it wants to develop tourism links with Arab states.

Turkey has successfully run a series of advertising campaigns aimed at the Middle East’s growing middle classes who want to spend their disposable income, and time, holidaying along the relatively cool Turkish Black Sea coast and shopping along Istanbul’s streets.

At a signing ceremony to promote tourism in Azerbaijan, Elshan Rahimov, chairman of the Azerbaijan-Arab Countries Cooperation said that Azerbaijan was fast becoming the holiday destination of choice for many discerning Arabs looking for shopping and culture.

He said that last year the number of tourists arriving from Saudi Arabia had increased by 450%, from Oman by 740% and from the UAE by 190%.

The growth in tourism from the Gulf states is also helping to boost Georgia’s tourism to peak levels

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>>This story was first published in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Kazakhstan tightens religious rules

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ALMATY, JAN. 31 2018 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh government is pushing a new bill through parliament that it says will strengthen the security forces ability to crackdown on what it describes as “religious extremists”.

The bill, which has passed a first reading, tightens rules on people travelling abroad for religious studies and makes it harder for children to attend churches or mosques.

Nurlan Yermekbaev, the religious affairs minister, seemed to go further and said that police would also target people wearing long beards and short trousers, both associated with devout Muslims. He said that there would be no blanket ban on long beards or particular clothing but that police would be allowed to issue on-the-spot fines if they thought that the beards and clothing were “promoting extremism”.

The European Evangelical Alliance also said it was worried the new laws would stop groups meeting up in private for bible study sessions.

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— This story was first published on Feb. 6 2018 in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Georigan government wants tougher sentences for gang members

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FEB. 3 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Georgian government wants to bring in legislation that will increase the punishments for being a so-called Thieves-in-Law, media reported. This is the phrase used to describe the bosses of various criminal gangs. Membership of a criminal gang was only made a crime in 2005. Since then organised crime, which used to be a major industry in Georgia, has been on the decline. Currently, members of a criminal gang can be sent to prison for five to eight years and leaders for up to 10 years. The proposals will increase this to 10 and 15 years.

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>>This story was first published in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of UN Security Council ends

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ALMATY FEB. 1 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan wrapped up its month-long chairmanship of the UN Security Council with a flourish of PR spin and self-congratulatory speeches. Kazakhstan was elected as a temporary member of the UN Security Council for two years and holding its chairmanship for a month was obligatory. In particular, Kazakh Pres. Nursultan Nazarbayev pushed his agenda for a nuclear-free world and also Astana as a centre for peacemaking.

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— This story was first published on Feb. 6 2018 in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Iran-Turkmenistan gas argument worsens

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JAN. 29 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iran threatened to take Turkmenistan to an international tribunal over a row about gas supplies, worsening a year-long argument between the two neighbours.

Iranian officials said that not only did they contest the value of the outstanding bill that Turkmenistan says Iran still hasn’t paid, but also that the gas Iran had received was of sub-standard quality.

“We are planning to take dispute with Turkmenistan’s state-owned gas company, Turkmengaz, over the quality of the delivered gas to an International Court of Arbitration,” Iranian news agencies quoted Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, the Iranian petroleum minister, as saying.

Turkmenistan stopped sending gas to Iran in January 2017, claiming it had not been paid for deliveries several years earlier.

Some analysts have said that Turkmenistan may be trying to squeeze more money out of Iran for gas supplies to the north of the country because its economy has been floundering. In December, Turkmenistan said that it had started preliminary arbitration proceedings against Iran for what it said was the outstanding amount owed. It did not name the arbitration court that it was targeting or just how far it had gotten with the process.

Iran has been importing gas from Turkmenistan, whose main client is China, since 1997.

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>>This story was first published in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

STOCK MARKETS: Shares drop on concern for global economy

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FEB. 6 (The Conway Bulletin) – The only stock to push up this week was Georgia Healthcare which inched up 0.7% to 340p on the London Stock Exchange. This is its highest level since Jan. 25 and marks something of a rebound from a six week low, hit on Jan. 30, of 322p.

Analysts said that Georgia Healthcare’s rebound was not due to any particular changes in its fundamentals, although demand for private healthcare in the region is strong, especially in Turkey. Instead, it was due to hitting a technical level.

Most of the rest of the stocks tracked a generally poor week for global stocks and commodities. Most fell around 5%, although Nostrum Oil & Gas was down by 8.9% at 295.5p. This confirms that a recovery with rising oil prices to 366p at the start of the year has now been reversed and it is now trading at its lowest level since October 2016.

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>>This story was first published in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Astana Syria talks set for February

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ALMATY, FEB. 6 2018 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan said that the next meeting between the various factions fighting in Syria will be held in Astana in late February. This will be the ninth meeting in the series that involves the Syrian government, rebel factions, Russia, Turkey and Iran. Kazakhstan has used the talks, in part, to promote Astana as a venue for various peace negotiations.

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— This story was first published on Feb. 6 2018 in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Construction begins on new hotel in Tbilisi

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FEB. 1 (The Conway Bulletin) – Construction started in Tbilisi on a 5-star Hilton hotel in the former Soviet-era offices of the agriculture ministry in the centre of the city. The hotel will have 200 rooms and will cost $45m to build. Tbilisi has been short of hotel rooms, especially at the upper-end of the market. There has been a hotel construction boom over the past few years as supply tries to catch up with demand.

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>>This story was first published in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

Aliyev orders snap presidential election

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FEB. 5 2018 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev surprised his rivals by bringing forward a presidential election by six months to April 11, immediately triggering accusations that he was abusing his powers.

One of the new clauses inserted into Azerbaijan’s constitution after a contentious referendum in 2016 was that the President could choose the date of an election. Previously the date of presidential elections had been fixed.

Mr Aliyev made the announcement via his website but did not give a reason for bringing the election forward from Oct. 17.

Azerbaijan is regularly lambasted for lacking democratic values. It has arrested dozens of anti-government activists, journalists and opposition-supporting lawyers in the past eight years or so. Most have been imprisoned for financial crimes, smuggling or crossing borders illegally.
The authorities in Azerbaijan say they have snuffed out coup attempts but the opposition counter that the arrests are politically motivated.

And they were quick to criticise Mr Aliyev’s decision to bring forward the presidential election. Jamil Hasanli, head of the opposition National Council of Democratic Forces, said the new election date was “an insult to democracy”.

Mr Aliyev took over from his father as president in 2003. He has extended the length of presidential terms and scrapped a limit on the number of terms a person can serve.

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— This story was first published on Feb. 6 2018 in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin

COMMENT: China wants more deals in Central Asia

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>> China’s Belt and Road project has triggered a surge in FDI in Central Asia in the past few years. There is more to come, writes Filip Rambousek.

FEB. 6 (The Conway Bulletin) – In 2018, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central Asia, stemming from its global Belt and Road Initiative, is likely to continue to increase. Kazakhstan, where China has already built railways and a pipeline, can be especially optimistic.

2017 saw the first freight train arrive in the UK from China via Kazakhstan, and in 2018, we will likely see a gradual increase in traffic, as China looks to expand the Kazakh route by trading with Iran.

Increasing Chinese activity will also trigger geopolitical competition in the region. Japan has already announced its intention to increase freight traffic from South Korea through Kazakhstan to Europe to curb Chinese influence. Similarly, the US may be turning back to the region following the scaling down of its military operations in Afghanistan and closure of its military base in Kyrgyzstan four years ago.

At a meeting between Nazarbayev and Donald Trump in Washington this January, the two leaders reportedly signed deals for US investment in Kazakhstan worth more than $7.5b. This may not be military but it is a big commercial statement. The US will also continue to watch Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous state and arguably biggest underachiever, as Pres. Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s reform programme seeks to attract Chinese investment to restore its economy.

Similarly, for Kyrgyzstan, Chinese FDI presents an attractive alternative to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Promising better access to the Russian markets, the EEU has been an economic disappointment, serving primarily as a vehicle for Russian influence. Kyrgyzstan’s ambivalent relationship with the EEU is illustrative of Russia’s position in the region. While its cultural and political heritage remains compelling, the EEU cannot match the potential offered by China; even Kazakhstan’s move to the Latin alphabet is a step away from Russia, which will likely see its influence over Central Asian affairs beginning to diminish.

Nevertheless, for China, Central Asia is only a means to an end. Its investment may travel along Central Asian railways but provide no lasting benefit. Central Asian countries should use Chinese investment to kick-start their economies, and show that FDI investment in the region can make sense.

Opportunity may come to Central Asia, but optimists should also be cautious.

>>Filip Rambousek is a Russia and CIS analyst at the S-RM consultancy.

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— This story was first published on Feb. 6 2018 in issue 360 of The Conway Bulletin