OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation in Georgia in September measured 5.2%, the Georgia statistics service said, a small drop from August. The main driver of inflation has been a rise in the price of electricity, alcohol and cigarettes. Last month the Central Bank increased interest rates to try to beat rising inflation.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan hired US-based consulting firm Hill International on a $3.7m contract to manage the construction of the Baku Tower, a 50-storey skyscraper on the man-made Khazar island, outside the Azerbaijani capital. Avesta Group, an investment company linked to the Azerbaijani elite, has invested $2b into its Baku Tower project.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Border guards at Baku’s airport blocked two Amnesty International researchers from entering the country and the Council of Europe said it was pulling out of human rights talks with Azerbaijan because of what it described as a deteriorating situation.
Both incidents highlight the worsening relations between the West and Azerbaijan.
The West has accused Azerbaijan of clamping down on human rights over the past couple of years. Azerbaijan, in retaliation, has said that the West has been trying to organise a coup.
The Council of Europe, an intergovernmental body that covers Europe and countries on its eastern fringe that used to lie inside the Soviet Union, has been meeting members of the Azerbaijani government since October last year to try and improve dialogue between it and various civic groups.
Now it has effectively said that the situation is hopeless.
“Despite this initiative, the overall situation of human rights defenders in the country has deteriorated dramatically,” the Council of Europe said in a statement. “An increasing number of human right defenders has recently been imprisoned, and the Council of Europe has received worrying reports about unacceptable detention conditions.”
Europe’s relationship with Azerbaijan is complicated. It has derided the government’s attitude towards human rights and free speech but it has also continued to woo Azerbaijan because it needs its gas. The risk for Europe is that the row over human rights will push Azerbaijan further towards Russia.
The same day as the Council of Europe said it was pulling out of talks with Azerbaijan, Amnesty International released a statement saying that two of its researchers were deported when they tried to enter the country through Baku airport.
“The deportation of our staff adds to a sad litany of journalists and human rights defenders being targeted, detained and jailed simply for carrying out their work,” an Amnesty International statement said.
The Azerbaijan government has not commented.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The US started construction work on a new $266m embassy complex in Ashgabat that it said showed its commitment to Turkmenistan, which holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves and shares a border with Iran.
The new ambassadorial compound will open in 2018 and will feature various energy saving devices and a school, a US embassy press release said.
Over the past decade, the US has invested heavily in its embassies, generally building them on fortress-like campuses with high-walls on the outskirts of capitals.
Critics of the new embassies say that it cuts US diplomats off from the countries they are trying to engage with and also looks defensive.
And this new embassy appears to fit the specs for these new designs. It is a giant campus hosting many of the facilities that embassy staff need.
The suspicion is, that with fighting along the Turkmen-Afghan border worsening, security may actually have been the major driver in rebuilding the US embassy in Ashgabat.
Still, during the groundbreaking ceremony US ambassador to Turkmenistan, Allan Mustard, was full of warm words about his hosts.
“Our decision to build a new, bigger embassy here is symbolic. The new embassy compound is an indication of our enduring commitment to Turkmenistan,” he said.
“This compound will welcome families and strengthen our partnership with the school, the broader community, and the people of Turkmenistan as a whole.”
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Analysts in Kazakhstan have revised their inflation expectations down to 7.1% this year after official data showed that the consumer price index grew by only 1% in September.
Halyk Finance researchers said the numbers are much more encouraging than what they forecasted. This should keep inflation within the Central Bank target of 6-8%. Central Bank chairman Kairat Kelimbetov said he doesn’t rule out the possibility of a further increase in interest rates, after a new rate was set at the end of last week.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said in a report that Kyrgyzstan’s economy is poised to grow by 1.8% this year. This came after PM Temir Sariyev disclosed more optimistic numbers, pointing out that in Jan.- Sept. 2015, the country’s economy grew by 6%. The EDB said it expects a marginal slowdown in economic activity in Q4 2015.
The IMF has dramatically increased its forecast for Azerbaijan’s growth in 2015, from a meagre 0.6% in April to 4% in its latest report.
The international lender also revised inflation expectations downwards from 7.9% to 5% for 2015, more good news.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
ALMATY, OCT. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Following hard on the heels of Scandinavian rival TeliaSonera, Norwegian telecoms company Telenor effectively said it wanted to quit Central Asia and the South Caucasus when it announced that it would sell its 33% stake in Russian mobile operator Vimpelcom.
Vimpelcom owns several subsidiaries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus under its Beeline brand and allegations of corruption, much like those that have dogged TeliaSonera’s companies in the region, have gathered momentum over the past year.
Vimpelcom, which is headquartered in the Netherlands, has had a rough year losing about one third of its share value because of the worsening economic downturn in Russia and the general lack of profitability for telecoms companies across the Eurasian region.
Sigve Brekke, Telenor’s CEO, said the company was leaving the post- Soviet region to focus on its core operations in Europe but analysts said the real reason may well be the allegations of bribery levelled at the Vimpelcom subsidiary in Uzbekistan. Indra Overland, a research professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, said the corruption scandal involving Vimpelcom in Uzbekistan had damaged Telenor’s reputation.
“Telenor has been badly burned by its implication in the corruption scandal in Uzbekistan,” he said.
News that Telenor wants to quit Central Asia and the South Caucasus is another blow to the region’s reputation as a place for Western companies to do business.
Overshadowed by an increasingly gloomy economic outlook which has forced currencies to devalue and inflation to rise, Western companies in Central Asia also appear to have had enough of the region’s suspect corporate governance record.
An allegation of bribery emerged against Vimpelcom subsidiaries during investigations in the US, Sweden and in the Netherlands last year. Prosecutors said Vimpelcom had paid a bribe to gain access to Uzbek mobile licences, similar to a charge levied against TeliaSonera.
Telenor’s shares could go up for sale for approximately $2.4b and analysts said Vimpelcom’s main stake- holder Mikhail Fridman might seize the opportunity to consolidate his ownership. Daniel Johansson, an analyst at Fondsfinans, told Bloomberg: “There’s zero chance that it will be someone else completely unknown, like a Western investor.”
Vimpelcom has not commented on speculation it could buy Telenor’s stake in its businesses.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Turkmen state-owned natural gas company Turkmengaz terminated an engineering contract with Orgregionproyekt, a Russian company, signed in 2011, local media reported. It’s unclear if the cancelled contract was linked to the economy or not.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 4 2015, YEREVAN (The Conway Bulletin) — At a meeting in Tehran, the Iranian and Armenian energy ministers said they will increase the volume of their gas-for-electricity swap deal, deepening relations between the two neighbours.
Alireza Kameli, managing director of the National Iranian Gas Export Company, told local media that Iran is ready to supply as much as 2.3b cubic metres of natural gas yearly to Armenia through the existing 140km long pipeline. According to Armenian government figures, Armenia currently imports less than 400m cubic metres of gas every year from Iran. By comparison, Armenia imports roughly five times as much gas from Russia as it does from Iran every year.
“Armenia is currently unable to take full advantage of the capacity of the pipeline because of the lack of necessary infrastructure,” Mr Kameli said alluding to the lack of electricity infrastructure in Armenia.
Still the the two sides are working together on extending Armenia’s electricity transmission network. Armenia is building a third high-voltage transmission line, part-funded by Iran. According to the Armenian ministry of energy, the country currently exports 1.8b kWh of electricity to Iran every year, a volume that can be increased up to 6.9b kWh.
Electricity is one of their biggest exports for Armenia. It’s also become highly political. This year thousands of people protested in Yerevan against proposed price rises. The government eventually agreed to subsidise the price rises.
And this month, the government agreed the sale of the electricity distribution network by Russia’s Inter RAO to an Armenian billionaire.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia ended their Rugby World Cup with a 17-16 victory over Namibia, earning their second win in the tournament. This is and the only time that Georgia has won more than one match in a World Cup.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Piling more pressure on the Kazakh Central Bank, Vijay Mahadevan, CEO of steel maker ArcelorMittal Temirtau, said its decision to cut the tenge free from its US dollar peg in August was a good one but that it needed to devalue further. Mr Mahadevan said the tenge was overpriced against the rouble.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)