OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
Oct. 21 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek President Islam Karimov visited Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov for two days of talks starting on Oct. 19. He was followed on Oct. 21 by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev for separate meetings with Mr Berdymukhamedov.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 18 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a rare economic forecast, Turkmenistan’s
government said its economy would grow by 7.5% in 2010 compared to 6.1% last year. Boosted by revenues from gas exports Turkmen government statistics have shown sharp growth in the past few years.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Relations between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have blossomed recently and on Oct. 19 Uzbek President Islam Karimov arrived in Ashgabat for a two day visit, his second trip in 10 months.
Mr Karimov last visited in Dec. 2009 for the opening of a gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. As if to highlight strengthening Uzbek-Turkmen friendship, Mr Karimov’s press office said trade in 2009 between the two neighbours had increased by 40%.
But relations haven’t always been this cosy and only since Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov took over as Turkmenistan’s president in 2006, have links visibly improved.
There was little official detail on what was discussed but talks were likely to have focused on NATO’s war in Afghanistan, gas export prices and shared concern about the growing influence of Russia in Central Asia — Kazakhstan has joined a Customs Union with Russia and Belarus and an election in Kyrgyzstan handed pro-Russia parties the balance of power — as well as concern at the development of upstream hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
According to Mr Karimov’s press office, the potential of a transport corridor from Central Asia to the Middle East was also on the agenda.
Combined, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have clout in the region. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are major gas, gold and cotton exporters and they hold nearly half of Central Asia’s roughly 60m people.
Karimov’s visit was also well timed. The day after he left, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev arrived in Ashgabat for his own talks with Mr Berdymukhamedov.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Foreign investors will this year beat the $2.8b they invested into Turkmenistan’s energy sector in 2009, Reuters quoted a government official as saying. Turkmenistan has been diversifying its export markets to Europe and China.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
SEPT. 27 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — China’s state-owned energy company, CNPC, said it had discovered a major gas field in a block it is exploring in Turkmenistan. China also commissioned a gas compressor at the start of a gas pipeline through Central Asia. The compressor will increase the pipeline’s capacity.
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(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 30 2010)
SEPT. 21 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed a framework for a gas pipeline project estimated at $3.3b. The TAPI project was planned in the 1990s but war in Afghanistan has delayed it. TAPI aims to pump gas from Turkmenistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.
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(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 23 2010)
SEPT. 4 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan announced plans to construct a $1.9b Olympic city to be built by the Turkish company Polimeks Construction. The complex will be located next to Ashgabat and will hold 30 sports facilities including a 60,000 seat soccer stadium.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 6, published on Sept. 9 2010)