Tag Archives: Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan strengthens its army

MARCH 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan has once again raised the security stakes in Central Asia by ordering an increase in the size of its army.

Reports from the Turkmen-Afghan border also said Russian military advisers have been seen working with Turkmen forces.

This would possibly represent a major change in policy for Turkmenistan which has always promoted its neutral credential.

Central Asian states have becoming increasingly worried about the potential march north of the Taliban in Afghanistan once NATO forces quit the country. They have warned at various times that an attack is imminent. Russia, which maintains a large military base in Tajikistan, has issued similar warnings.

Last year, Turkmen forces set up checkpoints inside the Afghan border after what it described as a series of Taliban raids on its border-posts.

This is worrying for Europe because the EU wants to boost gas supplies from Turkmenistan. It wants to reduce its dependence on Russia for gas but doesn’t want to then start relying on a conflict-impacted Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan also has aspirations to supply gas to a wider group of clients including Pakistan and India. To do this it needs stability in Afghanistan and along its borders.

There are some dissenters, though. Some analysts have been increasingly sceptical and said that Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been talking up the prospect of a Taliban incursion into Central Asia because it suits their security agenda.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)

TAPI pipeline to cost $7.6b, says India

MARCH 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A gas pipeline that will run from Turkmenistan, across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India will cost $7.6b to build, India’s oil and gas ministry said. TAPI, as the pipeline is called, is one of the most ambitious pipeline projects in the world.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)

Berdymukhamedov says to allow demonstrations

MARCH 12 2015 (The Bulletin) – Starting on June 1, Turkmen citizens, organisations, and parties will be allowed to organise public demonstrations, a law signed by president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov stated.

This unexpected relaxation of oppressive laws governing demonstrations, took observers by surprise. It may be linked to worsening economic conditions across the country. It may be a ruse to appear more relaxed while changing very little.Turkmenistan is, after all, interested in pulling in the EU as a client for its gas.

Demonstrations in Turkmenistan are extremely rare with only a couple of small protests linked to housing in the past few years.

And the law has caveats. Any party or organisation which has been banned by the government will not be allowed to set up public action. The law also appears to be subjective stating that “individuals declared incompetent or of limited competence by a court or those who are facing legal charges” are not eligible to organise others.

All public rallies must take place at a distance from government buildings and should be aimed at the “peaceful gathering” of Turkmen citizens.

Importantly, demonstrations funded by foreign subjects will not be allowed. This echoes the country’s attitude towards NGO activities, which are strictly regulated to contain international influence.

The new demonstrations will likely be organised by pro-presidential organisations to burnish Mr Berdymukhamedov’s image at home and abroad.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)

Turkmenistan Airlines sign maintenance deal

MARCH 17 2015 (The Bulletin) – Turkmenistan airlines have signed a deal with Lithuania’s FL Technics to provide maintenance for its fleet of five Boeing passenger jets, media reported. Turkmenistan Airlines has been trying to boost its fleet and international image.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)

Extremists make gains in north Afghanistan

MARCH 18 2015 (The Bulletin) – The black flag of the extremist group IS has been seen flying in north Afghanistan close to the border with Central Asia, the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. This is important because Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have both said they are worried about the Taliban moving north.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)

Iran and Turkmenistan extend partnership deals

MARCH 10 2015 (The Bulletin) – Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani flew to Ashgabat for the start of a two-day state visit that underlined the improved relations between the two neighbours.

Turkmenistan and Iran have been developing their ties over the past few years. Iran is a client for Turkmenistan’s gas.

At a round table meeting at the presidential palace in Ashgabat on Wednesday, Mr Rouhani and Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov shook hands, smiled and exchanged pleasantries.

“Iranian and Turkmen governments have always tried in the path of development and welfare of their countries as well as preserving and expansion of peace and security in the world,” Mr Berdymukhamedov said according to Iranian media reports from the meeting.
News reports were vague but they suggested that Turkmenistan and Iran had signed a series of deals that extended their trade and energy cooperation.

Mr Rouhani said: “Officials of both countries are aware of the importance of such relations and both believe in bringing into play all capacities to expand the ties comprehensively.”

The meeting was important because the international community is currently trying to decide to what extent it should deal with Iran. Some consider Mr Rouhani to be a more moderate and reasonable leader to work with, others have said that Iran is still a rogue state that wants to build a nuclear weapon.”
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(News report from Issue No. 222, published on March 11 2015)

Turkmen gas production rises

MARCH 11 2015 (The Bulletin) – Gas production in Turkmenistan, critical for the country’s economic welfare, jumped by 5.2% during the first two months of the year, media reported quoting the Turkmen energy ministry. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world. Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has said that he wants to boost gas production to offset the impact of a growing financial crisis.
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(News report from Issue No. 222, published on March 11 2015)

Bedymukhamedov to fly to Japan

MARCH 11 2015 (The Bulletin) – Underlining his credentials as a far more outward looking leader than his predecessor, Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said he would travel to Japan for a UN conference on disaster reduction. He’ll likely make time to meet with Japanese officials to improve relations too.
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(News report from Issue No. 222, published on March 11 2015)

EU wants more gas from Central Asia/S.Caucasus

MARCH 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union has identified Central Asia and the South Caucasus as a future source of energy that will, importantly, reduce its reliance on Russia.

In an interview with the FT, Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice-president for energy affairs, said that the region could become a major supplier of gas to the EU.
In particular, the EU is looking to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. It has diligently invested time and money building up relations and pipeline infrastructure over the past few years in the region.

Now, as relations with Russia sour over the Kremlin’s support for separatists in Ukraine, the EU is speeding up its search for alternative sources of energy.

And in Central Asia and the South Caucasus it will find a willing partner. The fallout over the drop in Russia’s economy and the collapse in energy prices have been severe and governments are looking for alternative markets. Europe may be bureaucratic but it is stable and reliable.

Turkmenistan’s government was quick to respond positively to the EU’s smoke signals.
It’s a different scenario in countries which don’t produce energy.

Armenia is reliant on Russia’s Gazprom for its energy. It has had to ask for a gas price discount, pulling it more and more under the influence of the Kremlin.

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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)

EU wants more Turkmen gas

FEB. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a boost to Turkmenistan’s aspirations to expand its client base for gas deliveries, the EU said it was stepping up efforts to diversify its energy suppliers away from Russia.

The Financial Times reported that a long-term energy blueprint drawn up by the EU will emphasis building relations with countries such as Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Algeria.
Russia currently supplies around 27% of the EU’s gas needs, an excessive over-reliance, according to EU diplomats.

Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice-president for energy affairs, said it was sensible to diversify.

“As much as we want to diversify our energy sources, I think the countries around the Caspian equally want to diversify their [export] routes,” he told the FT.

This will please Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. He has said that he wants to increase the number of clients Turkmenistan has for its gas.

China dominates Turkmenistan’s order books. Iran and other neighbours also buy gas but in smaller quantities.

It has previously floated the idea of a pipeline underneath the Caspian Sea linking Turkmenistan directly to pipelines pumping gas from Baku across the South Caucasus, Turkey and into Europe. The problem is that building the pipeline requires serious investment.

Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves in the world and its officials want to supply Europe.

“A huge resource base of hydrocarbons onshore and offshore allows Turkmenistan to increase the exports of natural gas to the world markets, to develop the new routes of its exports in the eastern and the European directions,” the Turkmen energy ministry said after the FT story.

A global drop in energy prices is pressuring Turkmenistan’s economy, forcing the Central Bank to devalue its currency. Part of the problem is Western sanctions on Russia imposed in retaliation for its support to separatists in Ukraine.
But there may be an upside for Turkmenistan, as the row speeds up Europe’s energy diversification.
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)