DEC. 29 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with RFE/RL, Tajikistan’s deputy health minister said a polio epidemic had been brought under control. There have been no new reported cases of polio in the southern region at the centre of the outbreak since July 4 after an intensive vaccination period. World Health Organisation said 29 people died from 458 cases of polio.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 21, published on Jan. 4 2011)
DEC. 20 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest flashpoint may have been a squabble over air traffic control arrangements but tension has been rising steadily throughout the year between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Tajikistan is mountainous and controls Uzbekistan’s water supply which is vital for its valuable cotton harvest, while Uzbekistan controls Tajikistan’s gas supply which is vital for staying warm during the freezing winters. Add in a deep-rooted animosity between the Tajik and Uzbek leaders and it is a potent mix.
In 2007/8 the coldest winter for 40 years hit Tajikistan. Citing unpaid bills, Uzbekistan temporarily switched off the gas supply.
Since then, Tajikistan has pushed hard to improve its energy self-sufficiency and, backed by the Iranians, has started to build a dam on a tributary to the Amu Darya River which flows through Uzbekistan to the Aral Sea. The dam will produce hydroelectric power for a new power station but it will also stop water rushing down into Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan has accused Uzbekistan of blocking trade and supply routes in response to the construction of the dam and also laying mines around the border. Uzbekistan denies these accusations.
There is a wider international dimension — Russia and the United States are competing for influence while Iran has publicly backed Tajikistan. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are also vying for lucrative contracts to host part of the NATO supply route into Afghanistan.
The interlocking geographic and demographic nature of Central Asia means that whatever happens to Uzbek-Tajik relations will reverberate around Central Asia.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 20, published on Dec. 20 2010)
DEC. 16 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan has rejected a new air traffic
control agreement with Uzbekistan, RFE/RL’s Tajik service reported. The new deal
was supposed to be a permanent replacement for the 16 year old agreement Uzbekistan ripped up this summer. Relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have deteriorated throughout the year.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 20, published on Dec. 20 2010)
SEPT. 12 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Cables from WikiLeaks show how US diplomats detailed the rise of Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s eldest daughter Gulnara, who they described as “the single most hated person in the country”. From Dushanbe, cables described how the US competed with Russia for influence
and how in 2006 US diplomats drunk the Tajik defence minister “well under the table”.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 19, published on Dec. 13 2010)
DEC. 6 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia will help equip and train Tajik special forces to hunt down Islamist militants they have been fighting for two months in the east of the country, Russian interior minister Rashid Nurgaliyev said after meeting Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon. News agencies quoted Tajik officials saying that on Dec. 1, three security officers died in a clash with rebels.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 18, published on Dec. 6 2010)
NOV. 25 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The heads of governments of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states met in Dushanbe to discuss increasing humanitarian and economic cooperation. They were candid about the results other than to say they had agreed to boost regional aid. Founded in 2001, the SCO consists of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran hold observer status and attended the meeting.
ENDS
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NOV. 9 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The head of Tajikistan’s National Security Council, Saymumin Yatimov, said Tajik security forces have defeated militants in the east of the country. Tajikistan started operations in the Rasht Valley in September after militants killed at least 25 soldiers in an ambush. The government has linked militants to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 15, published on Nov. 15 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Itar-Tass news agency quoted Tajik law enforcement officials saying rebels fighting government forces in the Rasht Valley in the east of the country have started to surrender. The government has blamed the rebels for a string of attacks including an ambush that killed 28 soldiers.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)