OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Denmark’s Royal Highness Crown Princess Mary will fly into Tajikistan on Oct. 23 for a three day trip as part of her role as patron of the World Health Organisation’s Europe office, WHO said. Princess Mary’s visit will throw a rare touch of royal glamour over Tajikistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)
OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is deeply concerned about the impact that Russia’s slowing economy will have on its own economic prospects, the deputy economy minister Jamoliddin Nuraliev told the FT in an interview in his office in Dushanbe.
As reported previously in the Bulletin, Tajikistan’s economy is already showing warning signs linked to an impending recession in Russia. Sanctions, imposed by the West because of Russia’s alleged involvement in arming rebels in Ukraine, have started to strangle the Russian economy and those closely linked to it. This includes Tajikistan which is reliant on Russian imports and remittances from Tajiks working in Russia to prop up its economy.
“We are very much concerned about things happening in the Russian economy. We hope it will find a way to stabilise over the next year,” Mr Nuraliev said.
Earlier this month, the Tajik Central Bank raised interest rates to its highest level in two years to battle creeping inflation.
As a substitute for Russia investment Mr Nuraliev said that Tajikistan was counting on large infrastructure projects paid for by China which is looking to increase its influence in the region.
The concern with large Chinese-funded infrastructure projects is that the cash fails to trickle down fully to ordinary Tajiks. Instead, the ringmasters cream off decent proportion of the cash.
Remittances is a more effective way of pushing much needed cash lower down the chain.
Whether China’s large projects materialise or not, Tajikistan is due a rocky period, economically.
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(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)
OCT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 1% to 6.9%, its highest level in two years, to try and dampen rapidly rising inflation.
Like other countries in former Soviet Central Asia, Tajikistan’s economy is suffering from the knock-on effect of sanctions on Russia. Remittances from workers based in Russia generate around half of Tajikistan’s GDP. This revenue stream has dried up since the sanctions dampened Russia’s economy.
But Tajikistan is also battling rising inflation. Inflation measured over 5% for the first eight months of this year, nearly double the rate for last year.
The main problem for Tajikistan is that as well as weakening remittance flows from Russia, importing goods has become more expensive.
Rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nightmare combination for Tajikistan.
This was also the second interest rate increase by Tajikistan this year. In May it boosted interest rates by 1.1% to 5.9%. Previously it had cut rates on eight consecutive occasions.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting of CIS heads of states in Minsk, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon said Belarus and Armenia had already given it aid to bolster security along its border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan wants to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union which counts Belarus and Kazakhstan as members. Armenia is joining in 2015.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan has nearly doubled the amount of coal it has mined so far this year, media reported. The increase was needed to meet a surge in demand created by industries switching from gas to coal for power. The boost in demand for coal should also increase employment in Tajikistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A planned opposition demonstration in central Dushanbe failed to materialise after the authorities blocked websites and social media outlets and used a riot exercise as a show of force.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
Exiled opposition figures have called for a change of government.
OCT. 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik security forces donned full riot gear for a training exercise in central Dushanbe aimed at dealing with large anti-government crowds.The exercise was designed as a show of force against any anti-government movement that may be planning protests ahead of a parliamentary election in February.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)
OCT. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Access to various social media and news websites in Tajikistan was blocked, media and sources reported. The government has not officially said that it blocked the websites. It has previously blocked access to facebook and other sites, though, to prevent opposition groups from rallying support.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)
OCT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik opposition groups based abroad are preparing to challenge the political order built up by strongman President Emomali Rakhmon head of the otherwise predictable parliamentary elections set for Feb. 14.
Against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine and the stand-off on the streets of Hong Kong, exiled Tajik politicians have been making calls for the overthrow of Mr Rakhmon via the Internet.
One group, Gruppa 24, is promoting a demonstration against the regime on Oct. 10 on the main square in Dushanbe. The government has responded to the threat by shutting down Facebook and other websites where the the group issued calls to protest.
More menacingly, the country’s services held a bizarre simulation of a protest being put down by riot police.
Having experienced civil war in the 1990s, appetite for revolution among Tajiks is weak, and Gruppa 24’s Turkey- based leader, Umrali Quvvatov lacks the political influence in Tajikistan to pull off a coup. Nevertheless, the government’s response to the calls betrays fear, and Mr Quvvatov told the Conway Bulletin via Skype he expects a strong turnout at the protest.
“Tajiks have given up too much for this criminal regime. If the government responds to our meeting with force we will do the same. We are preparing for war,” he said.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)
BISHKEK/Kyrgyzstan, OCT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s new president is on a mission to transform his war-torn country with a shredded economy into a regional force. If he is successful, Central Asia may find in its southern neighbour a strong trading partner and occasional rival rather than the Taliban-tainted bogeyman regional governments have traditionally portrayed it as.
Central Asia’s security-first approach to Afghanistan is understandable. Both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have had to deal with Islamic extremists linked to the Taliban and other Afghan militants. Neutral Turkmenistan is also taking a newly assertive stance towards events in Afghanistan. Turkmen forces were reported as entering Afghan territory to beat back Taliban that had settled on the two countries’ border (Sept 17).
But Central Asia’s economic ties to Afghanistan are expanding. The long-stalled Turkmenistan- Afghanistan-Tajikistan rail link, which will eventually connect the country to China, looks increasingly likely to happen, while Turkmen gas may one day transit Afghanistan on its way to China.
Mr Ghani is keen to see Afghanistan as a player. His stated ambition to turn the country into an exporter of electricity may make Kabul a rival to both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The revival of Afghan agriculture may put pressure on scarce regional energy resources.
It is perhaps noteworthy that upon receiving notes of congratulations from all five Central Asian presidents following his inauguration, Mr Ghani’s warmest words were for Kazakhstan and Nursultan Nazarbayev (Sept.29). “Kazakhstan is an important friend and positive example,” he told Kazakh foreign minister Erlan Idrissov at his inauguration.
If Mr Ghani can take Afghanistan on a similar journey, then the country will be ready to both compete and cooperate with Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)