JULY 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Central Bank said inflation in Tajikistan for the first half of 2015 stood at 2.6%. In the same period in 2014, inflation measured 4.5%. Tajikistan’s economy is faltering under a drop in remittances from Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – TALCO, the aluminium smelter in Tajikistan, exported 3.6% more aluminium in the first half of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, the statistics agency said. TALCO is one of the biggest aluminium smelters in the world and generates around 70% of Tajikistan’s foreign currency earnings.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
DUSHANBE, JULY 12/13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Indian PM Narendra Modi’s grand tour of Central Asia ended with a visit to Tajikistan, once again sparking the decade long rumour that India would lease the Ayni airbase near Dushanbe.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty website reported that Mr Modi and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon visited the Ayni military base 15km outside Dushanbe as well as a 50-bed military field hospital India helped set up last year, ramping up speculation an agreement was about to be signed.
Instead, the two leaders signed far less eye-catching deals on culture and education.
India has been looking to lease an airbase in Central Asia for years.
It helped renovate the air base at Ayni in 2003 but appears to have been blocked from renting the base, possibly by Russia or China, Tajikistan’s close allies.
Earlier on the trip in Russia, Mr Modi had signed a deal for India to join the China and Russia led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) military/economic group focused on Central Asia.
India wants to start competing with China for influence over Central Asia and also for access to its various energy and metal deposits.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Governments across Central Asia and the South Caucasus welcomed a deal between the West and Iran over its nuclear programme that will allow sanctions on Tehran to be lifted, boosting their southern neighbour as an important trade partner once again.
Sanctions have weighed down Iran’s economy since 2002, stunting demand and undercutting its value to the region.
Central Asian and South Caucasus countries have legally been able to trade with Iran during the Western-imposed sanctions, but Iran’s economy had faltered. They now hope that, unshackled, Iran can generate wealth and demand throughout the region once again.
“It will have a positive impact on the economic and social development of all countries in the region, and will further strengthen the cooperation between Kazakhstan and Iran,” Kazakh foreign minister Erlan Idrissov said of the deal with Iran.
From Dushanbe to Yerevan, these sentiments were echoed across the region.
Georgia’s foreign ministry said in a statement: “(This) deal brings about normalisation of relations between Iran and Western countries, which will create new economic opportunities for countries both in the region and in the entire world.”
Iran has, over the past few years, been increasing links with both Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
In Azerbaijan it patched up a row over spying, in Georgia new regulations have allowed Iranians to set up businesses and Armenia has been busy making plans to increase trade with one of its few regional allies.
Its a similar story in Central Asia where ties with Iran are being improved and strengthened through new train links and product swaps.
And Iran’s economic impact on the region is significant. The ArcelorMittal steel factory at Temirtau in central Kazakhstan, for example, has long complained that sanctions on Iran severely dented demand for its steel.
With sanctions soon to be lifted and Iranian domestic and industrial demand primed to rise, Central Asia and the South Caucasus should benefit.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Khatlon province, south Tajikistan, sentenced Khusein Odinamakhmadov, 30, to 35 years in prison for recruiting Tajik men in Moscow to travel to Syria to join the extremist IS group, media reported. Tajikistan is worried about IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan needs to invest about $2b into its infrastructure if it wants to provide clean drinking water for its entire population, Alimurod Islomzoda, head of the Tajik state public utilities company, said.
This is a rare public omission in Tajikistan but Mr Islomzoda didn’t stop there. He also said that updating the system would take 80 years.
“To date, only some 57 percent of the country’s population has access to safe drinking water,” the Asia-Plus news agency quoted Mr Islomzoda as saying. “About $2b is needed and the full rehabilitation of the water supply systems will take 80-85 years.”
Tajikistan is one of the poorest countries in the world and with vital remittances from Russia dropping by around 40% this year because of a downturn in the Russian economy, the outlook is looking worse.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)
JULY 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank is cutting nearly 200 jobs as it restructures and streamlines its operations, media reported. It’s unclear exactly what the restructuring entails but media said that most jobs would be lost at the Central Bank’s offices in Dushanbe.
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(News report from Issue No. 238, published on July 2 2015)
JUNE 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – DUSHANBE – Remittances from Tajik workers in Russia to Tajikistan have dropped by 44% this year, the Russian Central Bank said.
This is inline with World Bank projections and highlights the economic problems facing Tajikistan and other countries in Central Asia. Russia’s economy has dipped into recession because of a combination of falling oil prices and economic sanctions imposed by the West in retaliation for the Kremlin’s alleged support for rebels in east Ukraine.
And this recession has hit Tajikistan and other countries in Central Asia hard. Remittances account for roughly half of Tajikistan’s economy.
In Dushanbe, the mood on the streets was glum.
Amirbek Saidbekov, a Dushanbe resident, said life had gotten harder.
“The money they send home has declined by about a half,” he said. “The money my uncle sends is not enough to provide for his family. The life quality of his family has worsened now.”
Shuhrat Murodilloev, a Dushanbe-based political scientist, said the drop in remittance was having a knock-on effect.
“Market employment is falling because of the decreased sales and the unstable Tajik currency,” he said. “Many people have lost their jobs in the market because there is no money coming from Russia.”
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(News report from Issue No. 238, published on July 2 2015)
JULY 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s economy ministry said that electricity prices may have to rise by 12% this year, media reported. Electricity prices have become an issue in the region because a proposed rise in Armenia has sparked street demonstrations.
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(News report from Issue No. 238, published on July 2 2015)
JUNE 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The number of migrant workers travelling from Tajikistan to Russia fell by 15% during the first half of the year, according to data from the ministry of labour.
The statistics, which run from January to mid-June 2015, showed that about 315,000 workers travelled from Tajikistan to Russia to find work, 52,000 less than in 2014.
Most have been put off by the drop in Russian economic output, which has knocked job opportunities.
Tajik labour migration to Kazakhstan, though, has increased by 33%, although the absolute numbers are small in comparison with Russia. The data showed that 4,800 workers from Tajikistan had travelled to Kazakhstan to find work, up from 1,200 in 2014.
Remittances from migrant workers are key to Tajikistan’s economy. A World Bank report forecast a 40% drop in remittances to Tajikistan this year because of the poor state of the Russian economy and the collapse of the Tajik somoni.
The new ministry of labour data adds credence to this worsening economic picture.
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(News report from Issue No. 237, published on June 25 2015)