Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Putin ratifies oil supply deal with Tajikistan

JULY 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified an oil supply agreement with Tajikistan signed in 2013. The deal will allow Tajikistan to import oil under a duty-free scheme. Tajikistan, however, cannot re-export the oil supplied by Russia. Russia is one of the main suppliers of oil for Tajikistan. The deal increases Russia’s influence over Tajikistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Kyrgyz and Tajiks were part of airport attack, says Erdogan

BISHKEK, JULY 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tajiks and Kyrgyz were part of the group that planned an attack on Istanbul airport last week, again highlighting the Central Asian link to radical Islam.

Turkish security forces have arrested around 30 people, including Kyrgyz and Tajiks, and accused them of plotting the attack that killed at least 44 people and wounded over 200 on June 28.

Mr Erdogan accused the IS radical group of the attack.

“We have arrested 30 people related to the terrorist attack. We are dealing with natives of Dagestan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,” Mr Erdogan said.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan said they would investigate Mr Erdogan’s accusations.

The Istanbul attack has highlighted Central Asia as a growing recruitment centre for Islamic extremists. It is unclear whether Central Asians become radicalised in their own country or in Russia, but their growing presence in Syria’s IS training camps is undisputed.

In an effort to crush radicalism, Central Asian governments have cracked down on Islamic opposition, including ordinary, peaceful and pious Muslims, often enflaming tension.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Cash begins to run short at Agroinvestbank ATMs in Tajikistan

DUSHANBE, JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The sharp economic downturn that dragged Tojiksodirotbank into administration earlier this year is circling another potential Tajik banking victim.

People lining up to use Agroinvestbank ATMs in the capital Dushanbe complained of a shortage of cash and worried that it too was going to be placed under the Central Bank’s administration. A company spokesperson denied this.

Ozod, a 42-years-old driver, said he had checked several ATMs across the city to try to find some cash.

“None of them had money,” he said. “I called the bank and they told me to check this one, as they said they had put some money in it. Now, I am waiting here and I hope I can withdraw some money to buy groceries before the Ramadan holiday.”

Nigora, a 34-year-old employee of one of Dushanbe’s many international NGOs, said that she had lost trust in Tajik banks.

“We had Tojiksodirotbank and now this,” she said. “I want to change my bank but I don’t know which one I should choose because I don’t trust the banks anymore.”

In May, Tojiksodirotbank said it had run out of cash and asked the Central Bank to put it under its administration. It also started talks to sell a stake to the EBRD. Last year the IMF said a drop in the value of the somoni and a fall in remittances being sent from Russia had undermined the economy and threatened the banking sector’s liquidity.

An Agroinvestbank employee denied rumours the bank was facing bankruptcy. Instead she said that a religious holiday was pressuring the bank’s resources. “People need more money ahead of Ramadan and that’s why cash is drying up,” she said.

The Conway Bulletin’s Tajikistan correspondent toured Agroinvestbank ATMs in Dushanbe. Most were empty, some were able to give up to $25 and others ran out of cash midway through delivering it.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Ukraine security forces arrest two Tajik men

JUNE 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Security forces in Ukraine arrested two Tajik men at Kharkiv airport for allegedly being members of the radical IS group, media reported. According to reports, the men were returning to Tajikistan from Syria via Turkey and Ukraine. They planned to target various sites with bombs. Governments in Central Asia are concerned about growing IS influence.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

SCO leaders gather in Uzbekistan for summit

JUNE 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan gathered in Tashkent to kick-start the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), together with their colleagues from Russia and China and Uzbek host, President Islam Karimov. The members are set to vote on June 24 to begin the membership process for India and Pakistan, currently observer countries.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Editorial: Tajik electricity production

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said that he wanted to triple Tajikistan’s power generation capacity to around 45b kWh/year by 2030.

This is a long-term projection, and plenty can happen over the next 14 years, especially in Tajikistan, but it is still an important one. It is important because it shows the impact that the World Bank sponsored CASA-1000 project is having on the aspirations of Tajikistan.

Tajikistan needs to boost its exports and electricity production, through its network of hydropower stations, has emerged as the only real way of doing this. Gold production, while increasing, is still low, hopes of an oil boom spurred by the discovery of Bokhtar field have fallen flat.

But CASA-1000 has encouraged positive talk of a boom in power generation in Tajikistan. It’s important, too, to credit Tajikistan, over Kyrgyzstan, of being hard-headed about power generation. It will supply the lion’s share of the power for the CASA-1000 project, which will send electricity across Afghanistan to Pakistan, and plans to boost its power generation capacity even further show that the potential is there for more.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajik ministers swear oath of allegiance

JUNE 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Under new rules, government ministers in Tajikistan will have to swear an oath of allegiance to President Emomali Rakhmon, media reported. The new rule will further boost the perceived power of Mr Rakhmon. He has been accused of building a personality cult.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

CNPC and Total start arbitration against Tethys over Tajikistan delays

DUSHANBE, JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — China’s CNPC and France’s Total have started arbitration proceedings against Tethys Petroleum, a British oil company focused on Central Asia, for failing to make payments to their joint oil project in Tajikistan.

Tension has been rising between Tethys and its partners at the Bokhtar oil field over the perceived slow progress of its development. Earlier this year, the Tajik government said that it would take back the 25% stake in the Bokhtar field that Tethys, CNPC and Total were developing if progress wasn’t speeded up.

Last year Tethys, the lead partner, missed two payments towards the Bokhtar field. Like the rest of the oil industry, Tethys has been hit by the sharp fall in oil prices over the past year. At the start of this year it was forced to patch together a deal with Olisol, a Kazakh oil company.

In a wide-ranging statement that discussed various parts of its business, Tethys said that CNPC and Total had filed their lawsuit against its subsidiary, Kulob Petroleum, at the International Court of Arbitration in Paris in May. Tethys, CNPC and Total each own one-third of the Bokhtar licence.

“The filed arbitration request is in relation to the Notice of Dispute received by Kulob Petroleum on Jan. 8 2016,” it said in a comment on the press release. Neither CNPC nor Total have commented.

The reference to Jan. 8 was to a notice that CNPC and Total filed against Tethys for breaking the terms of production sharing agreement (PSA) at the Bokhtar development.

For Tajikistan, the disagreements and delays to developing the Bokhtar field are a major disappointment. When Tajikistanagreed the deal to develop a 36,000 square km area in 2013, optimism was high that the development would deliver some of the hydrocarbon wealth it has watched neighbouring Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan grow rich off.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Business comment: BREXIT, Oil & Crisis

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As the results of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership came in early on Friday, the decision to leave the EU has shaken the global market.

The Leave vote has hit the London stock market, where most of the companies focusing on Central Asia and the South Caucasus are listed. Economists now expect more volatility in the short term for the London Stock Exchange.

The so-called Brexit also negatively affected oil prices, sending both Brent and WTI down by 6% in just a few hours. Analysts have said that the period of uncertainty regarding oil prices will now last longer.

Currency markets were also hit, as the British pound lost value against the US dollar, effectively strengthening the greenback.

This had an immediate domino effect on currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where local currencies weakened against the US dollar.

The increasing uncertainty and volatility is now poised to harm, at least in the short term, local markets in the region, prompting elites in from Tbilisi to Astana to brace for more tough times. It will also hit global markets in general, forcing investors to flee to safety and this means missing out Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Now both the Fed in the US and the Bank of England will have to revise their economic policies and this is likely to insulate further their economies and pull investment back from Emerging Markets.

In these uncertain times, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus cannot but hope that Western investors will go against the tide and continue investing in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Auchan opens hypermarket in Tajik capital, its first in Central Asia

DUSHANBE, JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — French hypermarket brand Auchan opened its first store in Tajikistan to local acclaim with crowds of residents thronging to the shop, which has been built on the side of a new shopping mall.

The hypermarket, one of 3,000 Auchan shops around the world and the first in Central Asia, was built by France’s Schiever Group.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also invested 5m euros. According to the EBRD, Tajik people buy products from small shops and at high prices, and building a new hypermarket offers them a new alternative.

The opening of Auchan is also a boost for President Emomali Rakhmon who is under increasing pressure because of the country’s poor economic performance over the past few months.

The currency has dropped in value, inflation has risen and jobs have disappeared.

The four-storey Dushanbe Mall, home to the new Auchan store, has been built next to the headquarters of Tojiksodirotbank, one of the country’s biggest banks. This year, Tojiksodirotbank went into administration.

And Tajiks were excited at the prospect of shopping at the hypermarket. “Everything was good. Some products were cheaper than at street shops,” said Malika, 45.

Others were more skeptical.

“Many say that people do not have any money but look at how crowded this place has become,” said Sharif, a 38-years-old NGO worker.

“As time passes, though, less and less people will come.”

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)