Tag Archives: security

Azerbaijan and Armenia to talk Nagorno-Karabakh

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met to discuss the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in talks mediated by French president Francois Hollande.

The official outcome of the talks — agreeing to more talks — may appear inconsequential but meetings between President Serzh Sargyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan are rare.

“Status quo is not sustainable,” Mr Hollande’s office said after the meeting. “(Azerbaijan and Armenia) have agreed to continue the dialogue, in particular with a new meeting in September 2015 in the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.”

Nagorno-Karabakh has been described as one of the world’s most dangerous frozen conflicts. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over the region in the early 1990s and only a shaky 1994 UN-brokered ceasefire keeps the two- sides apart. Recently, though, there has been an increase in the amount of fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia-back rebels now control the region but there is a constant background noise of sabre rattling. Azerbaijan has been re-arming its military, buying top-of-the-range kit from Israel. Armenia has quietly been rehousing Armenians chased out of Syria in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This was the second meeting this year between Mr Aliyev and Mr Sargsyan. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin hosted a meeting in August.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Uzbekistan discusses Taliban with Turkmenistan

OCT. 23 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Relations between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have often been strained but the challenges of dealing with a potential security void once NATO withdraws from Afghanistan is pushing the two neighbours to work together.

Uzbek president Islam Karimov made a rare visit to Ashgabat specifically to discuss how to deal with the Taliban who are hovering around the borders of Central Asia.

Reports earlier this year have said Turkmen forces have crossed the border with Afghanistan to set up more robust check points and defences. Uzbekistan also borders Afghanistan and Mr Karimov will, no doubt, have been keen to hear about the Turkmen experiences.

Uzbekistan also has to deal with a determined Islamic insurgency of its own with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). It is worried that a resurgent Taliban will inspire the IMU.

With both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan outside the Russia-led Collective Security Organisation, both countries appear eager to pool intelligence and experiences for what analysts have said will be a difficult few months, perhaps years, ahead once NATO completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Crimea-Armenia air route opens

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A direct air route is opening up between Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, and Yerevan, making Armenia the only country other than Russia since the Kremlin annexed the Ukrainian region earlier this year to set up a connection.

Media reported that the airline, Grozny Avia would run the once-a-week flight from Simferopol from Nov. 16.

Perhaps this is the price that Armenia has to pay for Russian economic and military support. The West has levied sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea. Russia has said that Crimea voted to join Russia in an independence referendum and that its actions were legitimate.

And what it craves is international recognition. Russia has had the same problem with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, rebel Georgian states whose independence it has recognised to the chagrin of most the international community.

The only countries which have followed Russia’s lead are small countries from Central America to the Pacific Ocean looking for economic support.

Armenia may be falling into that category over Crimea. It will join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 and looks to Russian forces in Armenia to act as a counterbalance for any Azerbaijani aggression over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Grozny Avia likely to be linked to Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-supported leader of Chechnya, provides another link between Russia and its semi-vassal states.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Uzbek security chief comes out of the shadows

OCT. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A visit by Uzbek security chief Rustam Inoyatov caused a stir. Not because a senior Uzbek official visited Beijing, such trips have become fairly commonplace over the past five years or so as China extends its influence in the region, but because of a photo from the meeting.

At the meeting on Oct. 14, Mr Inoyatov is pictured shaking the hand of Meng Jianzhu, head of political and legal affairs of the Central Committee. This is effectively a ministerial position.

The photo showed a thick-set 70-year-old Mr Inoyatov with barely a fleck of grey in his hear.

It’s also the first publicly available picture of Mr Inoyatov for some years. Searches across the internet only yielded grainy or blurred shots.

The picture is symbolic. Mr Inoyatov has been accused of being behind the campaign to purge Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of President Islam Karimov, of power. This picture may represent him, literally, coming out of the shadows.

Another theory about the picture is that it shows that Mr Inoyatov and Mr Karimov are putting on a show of force to Russia and a warning that it should not try to destabilise elections planned for 2015.

The photo suggests that Uzbekistan and China have grown increasingly close and that Russia risks being left behind as a bystander.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Russia army exercises in Armenia

OCT. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Around 3,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Armenia staged a week- long military exercise. The exercise is a reminder of Russia’s presence in the region and the fragile peace in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has made it clear that it still wants to re-take the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh currently run by pro-Armenia forces.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Turkmenistan declares year of neutrality

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s Council of Elders, a sort of perfunctory rubber-stamping chamber of deputies which confers some sort of plurality on President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s decisions, declared 2015 at the Year of Neutrality.

The declaration itself is fairly standard but it is important as a reminder that Turkmenistan follows a strictly neutral policy.

This means that while other countries in former Soviet Central Asia are becoming increasingly involved in the Russia-led Customs Union — Kazakhstan is already a member, Kyrgyzstan is on the brink of signing up and Tajikistan is eager — Turkmenistan won’t be joining them.

It also, according to the doctrine, will prevent Turkmenistan from taking sides over potential disputes over ownership of the Caspian Sea and its riches. This is important as tension between the Caspian Sea littoral states has been rising over the past few years.

And then there is also the small matter of the Taliban to consider. They have been increasing their activity around the borders of Central Asia recently, pressuring

Turkmenistan, even, into strengthening is border security.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Turkmenistan strengthens border

OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – It appears from news reports that Turkmenistan is continuing to bolster its defences against possible Taliban attacks. The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said that its correspondent in northern Afghanistan had reported construction work along the border.

“A source for Azatlyk (RFE/RL’s local service) in northern Afghanistan said Turkmenistan has increased its troop strength in several places along the border with Afghanistan recently and in the area where three of Turkmenistan’s border guards were killed in February the border guards have been replaced by spetsnazi, elite commandos,” RFE/RL reported.

“The source added that some areas now have fences, three rows deep, blocking access from the Afghan side.”

Central Asian countries have previously voiced concern that the Taliban would spread northwards after NATO had withdrawn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Georgia’s rebel region to bolster army

OCT. 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s rebel region of Abkhazia will sign a treaty with Russia to bolster its military. Only Russia and a handful of its close allies recognise Abkhazia. By bolstering its military, Abkhazia threatens to antagonise ties with Georgia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Azerbaijan increases defence budget

OCT. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan will increase its defence spending next year by just over 3%, keeping up with inflation, IHS Janes Defence reported quoting the Azerbaijani finance ministry. Azerbaijan has been increasing its defence spending through the last few years.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Tajik security forces train in central Dushanbe

OCT. 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik security forces donned full riot gear for a training exercise in central Dushanbe aimed at dealing with large anti-government crowds.The exercise was designed as a show of force against any anti-government movement that may be planning protests ahead of a parliamentary election in February.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 203, published on Oct. 8 2014)