Tag Archives: security

Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents to meet again

JUNE 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia will meet in St. Petersburg later in June for a tripartite negotiation on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a source in the Russian foreign ministry told local media. Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Serzh Sargsyan met in Vienna in May and agreed to maintain the ceasefire over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where clashes erupted at the beginning of April.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Editorial: Attacks in Aktobe

JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh officials have been quick to blame Islamic militants for a series of attacks in Aktobe, northwest Kazakhstan, that killed at least 25 people.

This, if proved, would be alarming as it would confirm links in west Kazakhstan with Islamic militants in both the North Caucasus and Syria/Iraq. The Islamic militant explanation, though, would also help President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s narrative. He made it clear that if the Kazakh population didn’t support him they would be faced with a dystopian future.

And this version of events, of course, could be accurate, time will tell. But no group has taken responsibility and there is an alternative explanation.

Some analysts have said that the attacks were organised by disgruntled members of the Kazakh elite. Mr Nazarbayev, 75, is looking weak. He hasn’t organised a clear succession and is presiding over a worsening economy. By destabilising the country, a rival would be piling on the pressure.

This is the alternative explanation for the Aktobe attacks that the gov- ernment doesn’t want discussed.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Russia defence min visits Turkmenistan

JUNE 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Sergei Shiogu, the Russian defence minister, travelled to Turkmenistan for talks with Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, opening the door to improved military cooperation. Turkmenistan has long professed a policy of neutrality and has kept a distance from Russia-led military blocks in the region. Now Turkmenistan could be looking to import military kit from Russia, according to Russian media.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Kazakhstan signs military deals with Russia

JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In three separate deals, Kazakhstan bought a range of military kit. State-owned Russian Helicopters signed an agreement with the ministry of interior to supply helicopters until 2020. Days later, the Russian defence ministry said it would supply Kazakhstan with anti- aircraft missiles for free. In addition, China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Company sold two combat and reconnaissance drones to Kazakhstan’s Air Force, the company’s first sale in Central Asia.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Gunmen target Kazakhstan

ALMATY, JUNE 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — An estimated two dozen gunmen attacked two arms shops and a police post in Aktobe, northwest Kazakhstan, killing at least six people, attacks that Kazakh officials quickly linked to Islamic militants.

Four gunman were also killed in the initial attacks and another 14 were killed over the next four days as security forces hunted the group.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev called a national day of mourning for June 9 and ordered security forces across the country to mobilise to a high level of alert.

“According to the information that we possess, this terrorist act was organised by supporters of radical pseudo-religious movements. They received their instructions from abroad,” he said in a statement on June 8. Kazakh authorities have previously used this terminology as code for Islamic militants.

These are the worst attacks in Kazakhstan’s 25 years of independence from the Soviet Union. They also come at a highly sensitive time with the economy performing poorly mainly because of low oil prices and unrest growing amongst ordinary Kazakhs. There is also a growing sense of unease that Mr Nazarbayev hasn’t effectively organised a succession, creating a potential leadership vacuum.

There have been no claims of responsibility from any groups for the attacks. Mr Nazarbayev blamed the attacks on people who wanted to destabilise the government.

“In countries where these revolutions succeeded, there is no longer a working state and stability, only rampant poverty and banditry that create conditions for the emergence of extremists and terrorists,” he said.

If confirmed that Islamic militants were behind the attacks, this will be Mr Nazarbayev’s worst nightmare. Security forces have been worried for at least half a decade that Islamic militant recruitment in the west of the country, which has a high proportion of frustrated young men, was rising. Links have developed between the anti-Russia insurgency in the North Caucasus and west Kazakhstan and also between the radical group ISIS in Iraq and Syria and Kazakhstan.

Some analysts have said, though, that the attackers may have been organised from within by disgruntled members of the Kazakh elite who want to destabilise the government.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

S. Ossetian fighters detain Georgian man

JUNE 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fighters linked to the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia detained a Georgian man for illegally crossing the border, said Georgia’s government. Akaki Misireli, 65, was sent to a detention centre in Tskhinvali, the capital of the de facto state that was the focus of a brief war between Russia and Georgia in 2008. South Ossetian forces released Mr Misireli later but the incident highlights just how sensitive the border around the breakaway region is.

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(News report from Issue No. 283, published on June 3 2016)

Georgia accuses Russia of killing man

MAY 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s government accused Russian soldiers patrolling along the border of the breakaway region of Abkhazia of shooting dead one of its citizens.

The foreign ministry issued a statement which said that Giga Otkhozoria, 31, had been shot six times while he had been on the Georgian side of the border.

“This criminal act once again demonstrates the highly alarming situation in the occupied region of Abkhazia, Georgia and the full responsibility for it lies with the Russian Federation as it is effectively in control of the region,” Georgia’s foreign ministry said.

Russia denied the allegations.

“The Georgian MFA used this case for its usual propaganda exercise,” the Russian foreign ministry said.

Relations between Georgia and Russia have been improving since Mikheil Saakashvili lost power in Georgia in 2013. Under his presidency, Georgia had fought a brief war with Russia in August 2008 for control of South Ossetia.

Russia defeated Georgia and strengthened its military support to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Over the last three years, relations between Russia and Georgia have improved although border incidents expose the unease between the two neighbours.

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(News report from Issue No. 282, published on May 27 2016)

Armenian soldier killed in N-K

MAY 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The de-facto government of the Nagorno-Karabakh breakaway region said one soldier of the Armenia-backed NKR Defence Army was killed by Azerbaijani fire. This is the first death in the disputed region since Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan met in Vienna in mid-May to strengthen the ceasefire.

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(News report from Issue No. 282, published on May 27 2016)

Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents meet and extend Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire

MAY 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, and Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s president, agreed to maintain a ceasefire over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where violent clashes erupted at the beginning of April (May 16).

This was the first time the two presidents had met since four days of clashes killed dozens of people and alarmed international policymakers.

Diplomats from the US, Russia and France, including US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, also participated in the meeting in Vienna.

“The Presidents reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire and the peaceful settlement of the conflict,” the mediators said in a joint statement.

Mr Aliyev and Mr Sargsyan agreed to meet again in June to track the process of the settlement of the conflict.

The importance of the meeting was not the bland statement but the fact that the two presidents were already meeting and talking. The violence had threatened to destabilise the South Caucasus region, which hosts vital pipelines pumping gas to Europe and borders both Russia and Iran, worrying international leaders and policymakers.

Nagorno-Karabakh is officially part of Azerbaijan, but also home to a large Armenian population. An estimated 30,000 people died in fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s. Only a shaky 1994 UN-brokered ceasefire held the peace.

An Armenia-backed army now controls Nagorno-Karabakh, although Azerbaijan has also said it will retake the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 281, published on May 20 2016)

Afghan protest shows sensitivity of power line routes from Turkmenistan

MAY 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Thousands of Hazara, a minority group in Afghanistan, marched through Kabul to protest against the re-routing of a section of a power line that will transmit electricity from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The protests shows just how sensitive the issue of routing various power lines and pipelines through Afghanistan has become as they generate income for communities. As well as this power line, Afghanistan will also host a power line dubbed

CASA-1000 which will send power to Pakistan from Tajikistan and the TAPI pipeline which will pump Turkmen gas to India

The government has said a route change for the Turkmenistan-Pakistan power line would cut costs.

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(News report from Issue No. 281, published on May 20 2016)