JUNE 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Around 100 people demonstrated in front of the Jalal-Abad regional administration headquarters in the town of Aksy in south Kyrgyzstan to demand the resignation of the governor, who they accuse of corruption. Aksy is significant as a demonstration there in 2005 triggered a revolution.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on June 25 2014)
BISHKEK/Kyrgyzstan, JUNE 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Dressed in a colourful striped shirt Narynbek Moldobayev is on first name terms with all the staff at this Italian restaurant in central Bishkek.
Moldobayev is the archetypal Kyrgyz MP and rather charming with it. Having moved seamlessly between three political parties in the last five years, his politics can be described as fluid — a common characteristic in Kyrgyzstan.
And it is this fluidity amongst the Kyrgyzstan’s political class, that’s important to examine as it is undermining, many say, Central Asia’s first parliamentary democracy.
An MP who supported former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, ousted in a revolution in 2010, Moldobayev is now part of an opposition group that split from the nationalist Ata-Jurt party.
“I was never a nationalist,” he said as he tucked into a bowl of salad.
Moldobayev is 60-years-old and sentimental about the Soviet Union. He praises Russia unreservedly but is suspicious of China and its “desire to influence” the Central Asian energy sphere.
Moldobayev, primarily a businessman who made his money in the construction and oil industries, seems unbothered by the values of the party whose list he has paid his way to be on through donations. “Kyrgyz politics is built on personal gripes,” he said wearily, explaining why some parties in the parliament have effectively disintegrated.
Many say Kyrgyzstan’s political system might be more representative if it ditched party lists in favour of geographic constituencies. In the parliamentary vote in 2010 five parties took less than 40% of the vote creating a fractious, and many argue weaker, parliament. Moldobayev disagrees with this viewpoint, citing potential for “dangerous localism”.
There may be another reason, though. Since few people actually know who Moldobayev is and he might not win a seat.
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(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)
JUNE 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bread prices in Shymkent increased by around a third overnight to 50 tenge ($0.25) a loaf from 35 tenge, media reported. This is the second bread price spike in south Kazakhstan this year and it could spark protests. Regional government officials blamed bakeries for the price increase.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on June 11 2014)
JUNE 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Uzbekistan ordered the release of the critically ill prisoner Abdurasul Khudoynazarov, media quoted Human Rights Watch as saying. Khudoynazarov had served 8-1/2 years of a 9 year prison sentence for allegedly stirring anti-government protests around the city of Andijan, east Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Perhaps playing into Uzbekistan’s hands, the shortage of gas in Osh has triggered anger towards the central authorities in Kyrgyzstan.
Under a Soviet engineered system, Uzbekistan supplies Osh and other cities in south Kyrgyzstan with gas. It cut supplies on April 14 because it said that Kyrgyzstan was not keeping to its side of a bilateral arrangement.
Uzbek officials have also declined to negotiate with their Kyrgyz counterparts, leaving people living in the south without supplies.
And anger is brewing.
Osh has seen a few demonstrations but protests have now broken out in Bishkek. People protesting against the lack of gas in Osh merged with others demonstrating against Russia’s Gazprom’s takeover of KyrgyzGaz in April and the government’s drive towards the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. Police were forced to break the protest up but any ground-swell of anti-government feelings in Kyrgyzstan can have serious implications for the government.
It is not surprising that Uzbekistan is being a difficult neighbour. Uzbekistan has been highly critical of Kambar-Ata-2, the Kyrgyz hydroelectric project the Kremlin agreed to finance. In 2012, Uzbek President Islam Karimov said upstream dams such as Kambar-Ata-2 could trigger wars between upstream and downstream countries.
Gazprom’s acquisition of KyrgyzGaz is also a threat to Uzbekistan as it gives the Kyrgyz energy network more firepower. Gazprom has talked also of a north-south gas pipeline in Kyrgyzstan that would cut Uzbekistan out of its supply chain. This, though, is some way off and it will not end Osh’s gas crisis in the short run.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alexander Ankvab, de facto president of Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway regions, resigned days after protesters stormed his residence and forced him to flee.
The protesters had been complaining of rampant corruption and a struggling economy. Mr Ankvab, elected in 2011 on a five year term, had initially been defiant after he fled demonstrators on May 27 but, apparently, after a meeting with his Russian sponsors he quit. There is little doubt where real power over Abkhazia lies.
Abkhazia has now set a presidential election for Aug. 24 meaning three months of uncertainty.
Although Akhazia’s independence is recognised by only a few countries, mainly driven by Russian pressure, Georgia is a bystander in Abkhazian politics.
Georgia’s impotency was summed up by its minister for reconciliation, Paata Zakareishvili. In an interview with Georgian media he pointed out that Russia had sent Vladislav Surkov, a senior aide to President Vladimir Putin, to mediate.
“Moscow rules there on the ground,” he said. “They are communicating with each other through Russia.”
As with any power change in Georgia’s two breakaway regions, South Ossetia is the other rebel province, this period of flux is a potentially dangerous one for Georgia as it can trigger instability.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
JUNE 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -An estimated 300 people in Osh, south Kyrgyzstan, blocked a main road to protest the arrest of former parliamentarian Ahmatbek Keldibekov. The authorities have accused Mr Keldibekov of abuse of office. Any sign of unrest in south Kyrgyzstan is a potential problem.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
MAY 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -Tension has eased in south-east Tajikistan after officials agreed to launch an investigation into the causes of violence that killed several people a week earlier, media reported. The government’s authority is limited in the region of Gorno-Badakhshan. In 2012, security forces fought pitch battles to control the area after they tried to arrest a local warlord.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
JUNE 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s government is considering increasing electricity prices for the second year running.
Ara Simonyan, deputy minister for energy, made the omission after questions from parliamentarians who were trying to find out whether rumours of a price increase had any substance.
“The electricity tariffs are not frozen in Armenia and shall be reviewed from time to time. There is no certain decision at the moment,” he said.
Last year the state’s body for regulating electricity prices raised the cost of a kilowatt hour to 38 drams from 30 drams. Now, media has reported, the government is considering putting up prices by another 20% to around 45 drams.
This is important because rising utility prices stirs anger.
Armenians have already vented their frustration this year against proposed changes to the pension system, triggering the downfall of one government. The new government has said that it will look again at the proposed changes which would have meant that people have to put 5% of their income towards their state pension.
Mr Simonyan said hydroelectric stations were unusually dry last year meaning that less electricity was generated and that this meant prices had to rise.
Regardless, if the government does take the decision to increase electricity prices, it could generate public resentment.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
MAY 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -Protesters stormed the presidential administration in the Georgian rebel region of Abkhazia, forcing Aleksandr Ankvab, its leader, to flee. Protesters said they were frustrated with corruption. Mr Ankvab later denounced their action as a coup attempt. Russia has supported Abkhazian independence from Georgia since a 2008 war.
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(News report from Issue No. 186, published on May 28 2014)