APRIL 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ukraine rejected Georgia’s request to extradite former president Mikheil Saakashvili, media reported. The government in Kiev, which is locked in a battle for control of eastern Ukraine with Russia, has appointed Mr Saakashvili as a special adviser. He is wanted in Georgia for alleged crimes.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
MARCH 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A parliamentary inquiry in Armenia said the government subsidised gas for consumers between 2011 and 2013 ahead of a controversial buyout of the pipeline network by Russia’s Gazprom.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) said the government had previously denied it was subsidising gas imports from Russia.
The Armenian government was desperate both to retain support ahead of an election and to write off a $300m debt to Gazprom. To do this, it needed the public’s support to sell the pipeline distribution network.
The inquiry’s findings will pile more pressure on Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan whose administration has become increasing unpopular.
The RFE/RL report also said Gazprom cut the gas price when Armenia agreed to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“The commission has found documentary evidence of unpublicized Russian-Armenian agreements that gradually raised the gas price from $180 to $270 per thousand cubic meters in 2011-2013,” RFE/RL reported.
“Gazprom cut the price to almost $190 per thousand after Armenia agreed to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in late 2013.”
This is yet more evidence that Russia pressured Armenia into joining the EEU.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – During a briefing, Senator Yertargyn Astayev, a member of parliament’s budget committee, said ministries might not have enough cash to fulfil projects unveiled by Mr Nazarbayev’s Nurly Zhol party.
According to Mr Astayev, the interior ministry, which deals mainly with law enforcement and migration issues, will soak up the largest budget cut of $225m.
But, importantly, Mr Astayev also said finances earmarked for large infrastructure projects were going to be “placed under strict control”.
The hint was clear. The investments envisaged by Mr Nazarbayev are under threat.
Economic turmoil in the region has forced Kazakhstan into cutting the budget.
Mr Nazarbayev said that various departments had to save a combined $3.3b.
And the cutbacks have caught the public’s attention too.
Rauan, a 43-year-old engineer from Almaty said the government should ditch various high-profile but less useful projects such as EXPO-2017.
“Now we are funding these projects, designed only to feed our pride, at our own expense,” he said. “Perhaps our ambitions are too high.”
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Without any irony, apparently, the authorities in Uzbekistan declared Islam Krimov the winner of a presidential election on Sunday with 90% of the vote.
This is the fourth consecutive presidential election that the 77-year-old Mr Karimov has won since the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s also the fourth consecutive election Western observers said was unfair. The other candidates, Western observers said, all supported Mr Karimov.
The reality is that the presidential election was a choreographed affair design to impose top-down stability over the country as it grapples with worsening economic conditions across the region.
It was also designed, at least in the short-term, to put an end to any chat of succession or replacing Mr Karimov. Last year his eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova, who was once widely feared, lost her grip on power and is now under house arrest. Her closest associates are in prison, found guilty of various economic crimes.
The biggest question for Uzbekistan and Central Asia is how the Uzbek elite replace Mr Karimov. For years there has been speculation about his health and although he played a high-profile role in the election he disappeared from view just before campaigning began.
The next few years are vital for sorting out a smooth transition of power.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Maxim Bakiyev, the son of former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, is living in a £3.5m ($5m) mansion in southern England, the transparency lobby group Global Witness reported. The mansion is owned through various off-shore companies. Mr Bakiyev is wanted in Bishkek for various financial crimes.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 25 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Nurlan Kapparov, a key member of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s inner cortege and head of the Kazakh nuclear agency Kazatomprom, died of a suspected heart attack while on a business trip to Beijing. He was 44-years-old.
Slick and Western-educated, Kapparov was part of the post-Soviet wave of loyal bureaucrats who helped Nazarbayev retain his grip on power. Having headed state energy company KazakhOil, been Kazakhstan’s environment minister and, most recently, head of the state nuclear agency KazAtomProm, sources said that Kapparov had the potential to be a senior government minister.
While he never openly showed such lofty ambition, his presence in and around the government was keenly felt. He acted in the shadows, influencing Kazakhstan’s transition to a more nationalist energy policy. In 2000, as a young vice-minister of energy he was able to negotiate an increase in Kazakhstan’s share of the Tengiz oil field, to the detriment of the US’s Chevron.
Kapparov was also a powerful businessman. The Lancaster Group — which can be traced back to him — is the conduit through which several joint ventures with oil and mining multinationals accessed the Kazakh market. With strong ties to ENI and Saipem, Kapparov had been president of the Kazakhstan-Italy Business Council.
Kapparov had been in China together with Kazakh PM Karim Massimov to strike a handful of multi-billion dollars deals. Ahead of the main deal-making day, he was discovered on the floor of a lavatory in a Beijing restaurant. He had died of a suspected heart attack.
Hundreds gathered in Almaty to mourn his death at the Academy of Sciences although, importantly, veterans and state officials were bussed in to increase attendance. The divide between the government and ordinary people in Kazakhstan is such that enough the sudden death of senior officials is greeted with indifference.
Ambition and acumen brought Kapparov to power and his loss will be felt by the government.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
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MARCH 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan released two opposition activists from prison, part of an amnesty ordered by Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev. Orkhan Yeubzade, a youth activist, was arrested in October on drug related charges. Bashir Suleiman, head of an election watchdog, was convicted of hooliganism.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A little known investigative reporting unit based in Bosnia released a report which said Gulnara Karimova, eldest daughter of Uzbek president Islam Karimov, may have earned as much as $1b from telecoms companies wanting to enter Uzbekistan. Ms Karimova is currently under house arrest in Tashkent.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A planned visit by Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili to Kiev has been delayed without explanation, Georgian media reported. Georgia has been a vocal supporter of the Kiev government in its conflict with Russia-back rebels but it was irritated by Ukraine’s promotion of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili as an adviser.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 12 2015 (The Bulletin) – Starting on June 1, Turkmen citizens, organisations, and parties will be allowed to organise public demonstrations, a law signed by president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov stated.
This unexpected relaxation of oppressive laws governing demonstrations, took observers by surprise. It may be linked to worsening economic conditions across the country. It may be a ruse to appear more relaxed while changing very little.Turkmenistan is, after all, interested in pulling in the EU as a client for its gas.
Demonstrations in Turkmenistan are extremely rare with only a couple of small protests linked to housing in the past few years.
And the law has caveats. Any party or organisation which has been banned by the government will not be allowed to set up public action. The law also appears to be subjective stating that “individuals declared incompetent or of limited competence by a court or those who are facing legal charges” are not eligible to organise others.
All public rallies must take place at a distance from government buildings and should be aimed at the “peaceful gathering” of Turkmen citizens.
Importantly, demonstrations funded by foreign subjects will not be allowed. This echoes the country’s attitude towards NGO activities, which are strictly regulated to contain international influence.
The new demonstrations will likely be organised by pro-presidential organisations to burnish Mr Berdymukhamedov’s image at home and abroad.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)