Tag Archives: politics

Georgia’s government collapses

APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgian sports minister Levan Kipiani resigned after a row with a parliamentary committee, triggering a vote of confidence in PM Irakli Garibashvili’s government.

In-fighting has dogged Mr Garibashvili’s Georgian Dream coalition government since it was voted into power in October 2012 and his opponents now sense an opportunity to kill it off.

Nino Burjanadze, a former PM and now an opposition leader, said: “Early parliamentary elections and real changes in the government are the only option at the moment”

Georgia is grappling with a fiercely divided political scene and a worsening economy linked to a decline in Russia’s finances.

The governmental crisis makes stability even more precarious. Mr Kipiani was the seventh member of Mr Garibashvili’s 20-member cabinet to quit. Under the constitution if a third of ministers resign, a no confidence vote is triggered within seven days.

And the Georgian Dream majority in parliament is wafer thin.

A handful of defections means that it holds 75 seats out of the current 149 filled seats. One seat is empty.

This means there is no guarantee the government will survive the vote, and if it fails, new elections are likely.

It is the speed of the government’s collapse that has taken people by surprise. Mr Kipiani was the third member of the government to resign in quick succession, following environment minister Elguja Khokrishvili and regional development minister Davit Shavliashvili.

Will Dunbar, a Tbilisi-based analyst, said: “To lose one minister in a week looks bad, to lose three looks like care- lessness and carelessness is one thing this government does well.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)

Georgian politicians visit Kiev

APRIL 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A Georgian parliamentary delegation visited Kiev in an overt show of support for Ukraine’s pro-West government. The Kiev government is battling rebels in the east of Ukraine.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Interpol removed Georgian Prosecutors notice

APRIL 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a snub to the Georgian Prosecutor-General, Interpol removed a wanted notice on former justice minister Zurab Adeishvili. The EU and the US have said the Georgia legislation targets governing Georgian Dream coalition is using legal mechanisms to go after officials linked to former President Mikheil Saakashvili.

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(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Georgia is heading for a close parliamentary election

APRIL 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest polling by the International Republican Institute (IRI), makes uneasy reading for the Georgian Dream coalition.

The poll, released in late March, shows support for Georgian Dream dropping to 35%. This is bad news for Georgian Dream, but so is the story told by the other numbers: 14% of likely voters say they support the United National Movement (UNM) of ex-president Saakashvili, 12% say they support nobody, and 11% refused to answer.

If these numbers look familiar to Georgian Dream politicians, it’s because they are disturbingly similar to a poll taken in summer 2012 by IRI’s sister organization, the National Democratic Institute (NDI). That poll, now infamous in Georgian political history, was the last taken before Georgian Dream swept to victory in November 2012, and everybody interpreted it all wrong.

In summer 2012, 37% said they’d vote for the incumbent UNM, while 12% responded Georgian Dream. When Georgian Dream went on to win almost 60% on the day pollsters were flummoxed, and many uncharitably said NDI were in cahoots with the UNM. In fact, that poll revealed much more about Georgian’s voting habits than anyone expected. 22% of respondents said they did not know who to vote for, and 21% refused to answer. Fear, embarrassment and a mistrust of polling organizations had led 43% of Georgians to keep their opinions to themselves. On the election day, this 43% gave their votes to Georgian Dream and surprised everyone by precipitating Georgia’s first peaceful transfer of power.

The same thing is happening in reverse in the latest IRI poll. The UNM scored over 20% in elections in 2013 and 2014, and today’s sluggish economy and devalued lari mean more people now miss the Saakashvili era.

If the 23% of respondents who refused to answer or said they support no one are really hidden UNM voters, it would take UNM support up to 37%, about the same as Georgian Dream.

There is a long way to go before the next parliamentary elections in 2016, but if the polls are to be believed, and if you know how to read them, it is shaping up tobea closer race than many would like to believe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Kazakhstan builds up an election

APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan prepared for a presidential election on April 26 that will extend the 26-year rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s only post-Soviet leader. He called an election to impose his authority during an economic downturn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Kulibayev criticises Kazakh Central Bank

APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Timur Kulibayev, one of Kazakhstan’s richest men and son-in-law of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, criticised the Central Bank’s handling of the growing economic fallout, a rare show of dissent by a senior member of the Kazakh elite.

At a business forum in Almaty, Mr Kulibayev said he was “not satisfied with the work of the Central Bank”, specifically with regards to the lack of liquidity.

“How can entrepreneurs get access to liquidity?” he said. “How can lending become more affordable? When we travel to the regions, these are the questions we are asked.”

The fallout from a slide in the value of the Russian rouble and a drop in the price of oil has hurt economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, piling pressure on its leaders and businesses. Mr Kulibayev owns Halyk Bank, one of Kazakhstan’s biggest banks.

Once feted as a leader–-in-waiting, Mr Kulibayev has become increasingly out-spoken and isolated.

The National Chamber of Entrepreneurs (NCE), a powerful organisation which he heads, has repeatedly criticised the Central Bank’s support for the national currency despite devaluation pressure.

Last month, Umut Shayakhmetova, the CEO of Halyk Bank also said in an interview that the Central Bank was hurting the economy by not allowing the currency to free-float.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)

Uzbek som drops after Karimov election win

APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek sum dropped by 17% on the black market immediately after incumbent president Islam Karimov won a presidential election at the end of last month, data showed.

In Uzbekistan, the black market is vital to monitor as it most accurately tracks the value of the sum against the US dollar. Bank rates are fixed.

Uzmetronom, an independent news source, said the sum is trading at 4,200-4,500 sums per $1 on the black market, double the official rate. The website didn’t give any reasons why the sum had fallen so sharply after the election. Generally, though, the drop in remittance from Russia, the fall in energy prices and a fall in the value of the rouble have pressured the sum’s value.

Prices for basic goods are also rising, which is putting pressure on minimum wage workers.

Elections in both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this spring were supposed to bring about stability and reinforce trust. Instead, though, they may be bringing more instability.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)

Armenia police raid opposition

APRIL 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police in Armenia raided the homes of four opposition activists they say had plotted riots during a planned memorial on the 100th anniversary later this month of an alleged massacre by Ottoman Turks of Armenians in eastern Turkey.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)

Most Georgians feel country heading backwards

APRIL 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Roughly 55% of Georgians feel the country is heading in the wrong direction, a new poll for the US political group International Republican Institute (IRI) said.

This is a higher proportion than at any time since September 2009, during the aftermath of a brief war against Russia in 2008, when 63% of respondents said the country was heading in the wrong direction.

It is also, and this is important, the first time since March 2010 that a higher proportion of people have said that Georgia is heading in the wrong direction rather than the right direction. The IRI poll is, perhaps, the most accurate in Georgia and is a decent weather-mast to judge the general mood.

And it’ll make nasty reading for the governing Georgian Dream coalition which is having to deal with various economic problems as well as internal squabbling and accusations that it is using the Georgian justice system to settle old scores with officials who served under former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

In the IRI poll people’s main worries were the economy and Russian aggression. Over 60% of the respondents said the economy had worsened in the past couple of months and 76% said that Russia was the main threat to Georgia.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)

Georgian defence minister rows with predecessor

APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Former Georgian defence minister Irakli Alasania accused his successor, Mindia Janelidze, of ditching a deal to buy air-to-ground missiles from France, media reported. Mr Alasania, sacked last year, said scrapping the deal weakened Georgia.
ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)