Tag Archives: politics

Kazakh president sends Tasmagambetov to Moscow

FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Until last Friday, Imangali Tasmagabtov had a sparkling CV. He was considered the consummate Kazakh insider and the man with a hotline to the president. If Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakh president since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, wanted something done, he turned to Tasmagabetov, his trusted lieutenant.

The urbane Tasmagambetov had been the Kazakh PM between 2002 and 2003; mayor of Almaty between 2004 and 2008; mayor of Astana between 2008 and 2014; defence minister from 2014 until 2016 and then a deputy PM until Feb. 3 2017. In each one of these sensitive positions, Nazarbayev personally appointed Tasmagambetov.

In Kazakhstan’s myopic politics, Tasmagambetov had even been talked of as a president-in-waiting and, if he had been given the top job, this would have come as no major surprise as his career has closely tracked that of Nazarbayev.

Now, followers of Kazakhstan’s politics will have to think again. Tasmagambetov will not be the next Kazakh president. That was made clear on Friday.

Instead, he will move to Moscow as the Kazakh ambassador to Russia, a diplomatic exile that will undermine his powerbase and take him away from the cauldron of Kazakhstan’s Astana-based politics.

It is amanoeuvre that has served Nazarbayev well. He has dispatched other powerful figures to embassies where they have been forced to watch the main action from the sidelines.

Perhaps Tasmagambetov’s error was to become too powerful and too popular. The 60-year-old had a high profile, bigger

than almost all other Kazakh politicians because of his tenureship of both the Almaty and Astana mayoral positions. He was also considered by ordinary people in Kazakhstan to be one of the most “Kazakh” of the elite, a major advantage in a country grappling with its newfound nationalism. He was popular and considered a man who got stuff done.

Kazakh politics will move on without Tasmagambetov. For now. But he is an ambitious man, born into a humble household in western Kazakhstan who still retains a sizable support-base. Don’t write off a comeback for the new Kazakh ambassador to Moscow.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Council of Europe investigates alleged bribery by Azerbaijan

JAN. 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) ordered an investigation into possible bribing of its officials by Azerbaijan.

The allegations focus on Luce Volonte, an Italian former leader of the European People’s Party. Anti- corruption activists have accused him of taking up to 2.4m euros between 2012 and 2014 for setting up a bloc within PACE to boost Azerbaijan’s reputation and dampen attempts to sanction its crackdown on human rights.

Mr Volonte, who is currently being investigated in Italy, has denied the allegations.

In a statement, PACE said that the allegations had damaged its reputation and that it had to act.

“Whether they prove to be founded or false, such allegations undermine the Assembly’s image and credibility as an institution and, in turn, the reputation of each and every one of its members,” it said in a statement.

PACE is one of Europe’s most high profile anti-corruption and pro- democracy bodies.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Kazakh president makes speech

JAN. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev made his second televised address to the nation in less than a week in which he promised to improve the country’s economy. The speech was short on detail and instead sounded like a to- do list. It had been billed as a follow- up to a speech last week in which Mr Nazarbayev said that he wanted to increase democratic reforms in Kazakhstan. He did talk about strengthening cyber security and adopting a new subsoil law.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Tajik officials investigate former Dushanbe mayor for corruption

JAN. 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Anti-corruption officials in Tajikistan opened an investigation into the former mayor of Dushanbe Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloev, RFE/RL reported. He was sacked earlier this month. The sacking and investigation, which focuses on a new housing scheme, of Mr Ubaidulloev may signal the start of a power struggle within the Tajik elite. Mr Ubaidulloev had been considered an arch loyalist. Anti- corruption campaigners have said that Tajikistan is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)f

Hundreds protest in Tbilisi against job cuts by Georgia’s defence ministry

TBILISI, JAN. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Since December, Georgia’s defence ministry has laid off several hundred civil servants and soldiers, a round of redundancies aimed at modernising the army and reducing costs.

The lay-offs have triggered protests including one on Jan. 30 when a few hundred people marched in Tbilisi.

Protesters said 1,750 civil servants and 340 soldiers have lost their jobs without any compensation. Another 209 officers quit their jobs voluntarily.

Elguja Urushadze, a former Lieutenant Colonel who used to teach at the military academy, told the Bulletin that he was fired without any notice.

“I served in the Georgian National Army since the very first days of its existence,” he said. “I have been teaching protection from weapons of mass destruction since 1991. I was on a work trip on the 12th of January when they called me and told me I was removed from office. On the papers, my last working day was the 11th of January.”

Georgia wants to join NATO and has supported its mission in Afghanistan. It also has a detachment of soldiers supporting an EU mission in the Central African Republic.

It said that as well as cutting costs, the so-called “Optimisation” process was needed to bring the Georgian army into line with its NATO allies.

“In 2016, 67% of the 670m lari ($250m) budget funds were calculated for salaries and social expenses and only 33% was spent on the military technique, ammunition and on other needs,” the defence ministry said. “NATO standards say that payroll and administrative expenses should make up 50-53% of budget funds.”

It also said that the reforms will save 32m lari, 5% of the total budget.

The protesters, though, said they will continue until they are properly compensated for their job losses.

David Nemsadze, a retired army officer and now a human rights worker specialising in military affairs said: “During the layoffs process, the working code was violated. The selection process was not transparent at all.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Armenian opposition forms block

JAN. 24 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The leaders of Armenia’s three main genuine opposition parties — the Republican party, Bright Armenia and Civil Contract — have confirmed that they will fight a parliamentary election set for April as a united opposition bloc. The bloc is called Yelik, Way Out. Leaders of Yelik said that they are in negotiations with the Heritage party, the fourth main opposition party, for it join too.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)f

Azerbaijan closes top university because of its links to Gulen Movement

JAN. 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Azerbaijan have closed the Qafqaz University in Baku because of its links to the Gulen movement which key ally Turkey blames for a failed coup in 2016.

The closure of the high-profile university, considered one of the best in Azerbaijan, follows the shutting of 10 high schools linked to Gulen.

Azerbaijan has been the only country in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region to go out of its way to accommodate Turkey’s demands to close institutions linked to Fethullah Gulen, the Muslim cleric who is now living in exile in the United States.

In the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, Gulenists set up schools and universities in the region. They are now regarded as some of the best.

Gunel Hacıyeva, a recent graduate of the Qafqaz University, lamented its closure.

“Caucasus was the best university in Azerbaijan. So much experience, so many people, so many students have become victims of the interests of the authorities of both Turkey and Azerbaijan,” he told the Conway Bulletin.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Georgian president blocks parliamentary bill

JAN. 24 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgian president Giorgi Margvelashvili vetoed a bill passed through parliament, which is dominated by the Georgian Dream coalition that he represents, that he said would damage the independence of the courts. The proposed bill had focused on changing the process through which court judges are appointed. Mr Margvelashvili and the Georgian Dream have increasingly rowed over governance issues.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)f

Georgian MPs force debate on gas deal with Russia

JAN. 23 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Opposition MPs in Georgia’s parliament have forced a debate on Feb. 3 on the terms of a new gas deal struck with Russia at the beginning of the year, piling pressure on energy minister Kakha Kaladze to reveal details of the new arrangement. Under the deal, Georgia will pay for gas from Russia directly, rather than take a 10% cut of the volume that Russia sends to Armenia. Mr Kaladze has refused to give out details of the deal but his opponents have called it a risk to national security.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Comment: Nazarbayev announces constitutional changes, writes Hagelund

JAN. 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an unusual step, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev took to the airwaves to announce constitutional changes, suggesting the septuagenarian has fired the starting gun for his succession. Proposed amendments to Kazakhstan’s constitution were received with scepticism by the Kazakh people; yet they include changes that will prove significant.

Planned limits on presidential power have little immediate impact as Nazarbayev’s personal, informal influence determines the rules of the game. However, in the post-Nazarbayev era, formal institutions are likely to play an increasingly influential role.

Nazarbayev is setting the scene for his successor to be less powerful. This likely reflects recognition on his part that no individual has the authority or legitimacy to succeed him as a strongman (or –woman) ruler. While the proposed strengthening of parliament will not result in a multi-party democracy, a form of pluralism already exists with elite factions supporting differing policies.

Verisk Maplecroft considers intra-elite differences the only plausible source of a more competitive political environment in the immediate post- Nazarbayev era, but they equally raise the potential for instability. Elite factionalism is currently mediated by the president, but with a less powerful successor facing a potentially more vocal and influential government and parliament, the scene is set for more overt elite clashes.

In the absence of strong state institutions, clashes over policy – or of personalities – risk undermining government stability. A particular cause for concern is therefore Kazakhstan’s weak rule of law, specifically the little emphasis Nazarbayev put on the importance of the judiciary in refereeing the balance of power between different branches of government.

A more complex collective system of government would be a step-change in the political landscape for businesses after a quarter of a century of

relative stability. Collective government implies less clarity around who the power brokers are, particularly as the system is established and elite jostle for power.

When the time comes, navigating Kazakh politics will, in all probability, prove challenging. Policy and political volatility is bound to increase without a single power broker to mediate between different factions of the ruling elite.

By Camilla Hagelund, senior Europe analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft

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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)