MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The April 2 parliamentary elections will define Armenia’s politics for the next five years, starting with the transformation from semi-presidential government to parliamentary republic even though this shift is not fully understood by the majority of society.
Armenia’s ruling Republican party is playing on society’s lack of understanding of the changes to try to retain a majority in parliament. But this is not a promising election for Republicans and for party leader, President Serzh Sargsyan.
The ruling party’s rating reached a historical low after years of economic stagnation, and accusations that corrupt officials were to blame for losses in a breakdown of a ceasefire with Azerbaijan around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in April last year. When 20 gunmen stormed a police station in Yerevan a few months later and took nine policemen hostage for two weeks, the violent action was not condemned by the public. Instead they were welcomed.
This seizure of the police station was used by the government as a trigger for reforms. The government changed some of the less-liked faces and Sargsyan invited former Yerevan mayor and Gazprom official Karen Karapetyan back from Moscow to become prime minister. Karapetyan promised to improve the government, root out corruption, improve the business environment and invest into the economy. His style of management was widely supported by the media and was positively greeted.
Karapetyan and his small team now lead Republicans’ election campaign, while the President, and party chairman, Serzh Sargsyan keeps himself in the shadows. Karapetyan’s popularity endures but there is still a job to do to win the election and that is where the Republican Party’s strategy comes into play. The Republican Party list of candidates is dominated by business and administrative heavyweights who’ll bring votes to the party.
The opposition fall short in this category. Almost all of them, with the exception of the pseudo-opposition Tsarukyan party, are fighting to enter parliament not through majoritan wins, but by passing the proportional representation threshold (5% for a party or 7% for a bloc).
The new parliament will take part in a power reshape between the president and the prime minister. A smooth election would legitimatise the new Constitution and parliamentary system.
By Eric Bagdasaryan is an independent analyst and executive secretary of Armenian Centre for Social Development and Public Policy
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)