JAN. 31 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s constitutional committee rejected a referendum that could have kept President Nursultan Nazarbayev in power without an election until 2020. Mr Nazarbayev instead called an early presidential election. A source in the presidential administration told The Conway Bulletin that May 1 was the likely day.
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(News report from Issue No. 25, published on Jan. 31 2011)
JAN. 31 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – From presidential palaces across the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the spontaneous uprisings that have dislodged Ben Ali after 23 years running Tunisia and now threaten the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt are worrying.
Perhaps the ruling elite in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are most concerned. In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled for 20 years and in Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev effectively inherited the presidency from his father who ran the country from 1993.
This year Kazakhstan had planned to extend the 70-year-old Mr Nazarbayev’s rule until 2020 through a national referendum. That plan has now been scrapped.
In Azerbaijan, discontent has been growing against a ban on headscarves and the authorities have detained several senior Islamist leaders. Immolation triggered the revolution in Tunisia and according to news reports, on Jan. 20 in Azerbaijan a farmer frustrated over police corruption also committed immolation. His death may not have sparked the public outrage that it did in Tunisia but the authorities are wary.
In Yerevan, protesters angry about corruption and mismanagement have been gathering for the biggest rallies against Armenia’s government since 2008 when 8 people died in clashes between protesters and soldiers.
The Rose Revolution swept Mikhail Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003 and, tellingly, its elite have given Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution a relative quiet reception. A few years ago Mr Saakashvili may have applauded the Jasmine Revolution but in the last three years he has faced a wave of discontent and now it is viewed as a potentially destabilising factor.
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(News report from Issue No. 25, published on Jan. 31 2011)
JAN. 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Thousands of people rallied peacefully in central Yerevan against the Armenian government. Opposition politician Tigran Karapetyan, whose television station the government plans to close, organised the rally. News organisations estimated there were 7,000 people at the protest, the second major anti-government protest of the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 24, published on Jan. 24 2011)
JAN. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov sacked the head of the country’s gas company, Dovlet Mommayev, after only 3 months in the job, media reported quoting state TV. Amanali Khanaliyev, previously head of building pipelines, is the new head of Turkmengaz.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)
JAN. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azeri police have detained at least another 20 men linked to the unregistered Islamic Party of Azerbaijan (AIP), local media reported. On Jan. 8 police arrested AIP’s leader, Movsum Samadov, for inciting mass unrest. Founded in 1991, AIP has links with Iran.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)
JAN. 17 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan says 5m people have signed a petition asking for a referendum to allow President Nursultan Nazarbayev to rule unchallenged until 2020.
But where are these 5m people? On the day parliament voted to back the petition I spoke to people on the snowy streets of Almaty, Kazakhstan’s biggest city, but couldn’t find anybody who had been asked to signed it. The petition apparently originated from the eastern city of Ust-Kamenogorsk but some analysts have suggested the 5m signatures are fiction, needed only to legitimise political will.
Romil, a 20-year-old trainee dentist, gave his opinion. And it was typical. “Of course it’s a good thing if Nazarbayev remains in power. He is a good, strong leader,” he said. “But I haven’t signed this petition and I don’t know anybody who has.”
Next along the path was Victoria, a 30-year-old ethnic Russian teacher. She also thought Mr Nazarbayev was a good leader but had also not been asked to sign the petition.
“I am worried though that Nazarbayev is getting old and it’s not good to change the Constitution,” she said. Mr Nazarbayev is 70-years-old.
Others compared the stability that Kazakhstan was enjoying to the recent upheavals in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. “You know it’s a good thing if Nazarbayev continues. He is strong and a good leader. Just look at Kyrgyzstan for what happens without a good leader,” said Svetlana, who was out with her 4-year-old granddaughter.
And so it continued. Everybody thought it was a good idea that Mr Nazarabyev remained in power, most thought it would be good to scrap elections but nobody had been asked to sign the petition.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)
JAN. 14 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to insert a clause in the Constitution to allow a referendum on whether President Nursultan Nazarbaeyev should remain in power until 2020 without facing another election. The organisers of a petition supporting a referendum say they have collected 5m signatures.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)
JAN. 5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan plans to name a mountain after Russian PM Vladimir Putin. The chosen mountain will be over 4,500m high and located in the Tian Shan range on the border with China near Mount Boris Yeltsin and Mount Lenin. In December 2010, Russia pledged $200m in aid to Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 22, published on Jan. 11 2011)
JAN. 7 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev turned down calls for a referendum to ditch presidential elections in 2012 and 2017. Parliament had backed a public petition to hold a referendum to extend Mr Nazarbayev’s rule unchecked until 2020. The US had criticised the move to scrap elections as a setback for democracy.
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(News report from Issue No. 22, published on Jan. 11 2011)
JAN. 8 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s security services detained the head of a banned Islamic group for inciting disorder and calling for a Jihad, media reported. Earlier in January, Mohsun Samedov, leader of the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan, had posted a speech on the internet criticising a ban on headscarves and calling for the government to quit.
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(News report from Issue No. 22, published on Jan. 11 2011)