NOV. 7 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – On the fourth anniversary of clashes between Georgian security services and anti-government protesters, several hundred people demonstrated in Tbilisi against President Mikheil Saakashvili and his government. Local media said the Georgian Labour party organised the protest.
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(News report from Issue No. 64, published on Nov. 8 2011)
NOV. 8 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Despite predictable accusations from the losing candidates that a presidential election in Kyrgyzstan on Oct. 30 2011 won by PM Almazbek Atambayev was unfair, opposition protests and marches failed to gather momentum. Dodging post-election violence was vital for Kyrgyzstan to shake off its image as Central Asia’s most volatile country.
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(News report from Issue No. 64, published on Nov. 8 2011)
OCT. 30 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Almazbek Atambayev, Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Russia PM and a northern favourite, won a presidential election with around 63% of the vote.
This comprehensive first round victory avoided a potentially divisive second round run-off. His main southern opponents, though, criticised the legitimacy of his larger-than-expected victory and pledged to contest it in the courts and on the streets.
Politics in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s least stable country, splits along clan and family loyalties. Mr Atambayev and his opponents now need to show real leadership to control their supporters and quickly snuff out any signs of post-election violence.
Since 2005, Kyrgyzstan has suffered two revolutions and a bout of ethnic fighting that killed more than 400 people. It now desperately needs stability.
Although international observers criticised some aspects of the voting process, it was a genuinely contested election — a rarity in Central Asia.
And it was also a genuinely historic milestone in the region’s 20-year post-Soviet history. It marks the first time a sitting president has willingly and peacefully relinquished power.
The outgoing president, Roza Otunbayeva, took power in April 2010 as interim leader after a revolution. She always said she would give up power at a presidential election. Now she is making good on that promise. In a region dominated by autocratic male leaders who first tasted power during the Soviet Union, Ms Otunbayeva is a shining example.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)
NOV. 1 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – In his first policy statement after winning a presidential election, Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Russia PM Almazbek Atambayev said the US will have to quit an airbase outside Bishkek when its lease expires in 2014. The airbase has been vital to NATO efforts in Afghanistan which also wind up in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)
OCT. 28 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The mayor of Yerevan, Karen Karapetyan, resigned after less than a year in one of the most powerful jobs in Armenia. Mr Karapetian said he had resigned because of another job opportunity but speculation mounted that he had been forced to resign because of his support for the opposition.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)
OCT. 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Quoting sources in Kazakhstan, the FT linked ex-British PM Tony Blair to a $13m deal to advise the Kazakh government. Mr Blair’s consultancy group, which includes staff from his Downing Street days, has agreed to advise Kazakhstan on its social and economic policies, the FT wrote.
Kazakh officials later confirmed the deal. Mr Blair’s press people said that although he had helped set up the group, he personally was no longer involved.
Since Mr Blair left government in 2007 he has been Special Envoy to the Middle East and built up a business as a high profile consultant and adviser through his company Tony Blair Associates.
Whatever the exact nature of his engagement with the Kazakh government, it would be one of his biggest clients as well as one of his most controversial.
President Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled over Kazakhstan for all 20 years of its independence, international observers have never deemed an election to be free and fair and rights groups criticise its draconian approach to the media.
But Kazakhstan has recently developed a love for consultants. It is a country which has always had a slight air of insecurity about it, more so after the emergence in 2006 of the boorish fictional character Borat. Now, buoyed by its energy wealth, Kazakhstan is increasingly confident and wants to project a more serious image.
There are already plenty of Western advisers, consultants and PR gurus in Astana. Perhaps it was only ever a matter of time before Kazakhstan’s and Mr Blair’s interests converged.
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(News report from Issue No. 62, published on Oct. 25 2011)
OCT. 25 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov accepted the title of Hero of the Nation from the Council of Elders, more evidence, perhaps, another personality cult is flourishing. Mr Berdymukhamedov’s predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, had called himself Turkmenbashi — father of the Turkmen.
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(News report from Issue No. 62, published on Oct. 25 2011)
OCT. 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s Central Bank launched a money laundering investigation into the bank of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili two weeks after he pledged to set up an opposition party. Police seized millions of dollars from Mr Ivanishvili’s Cartu Bank. He said the raid was politically motivated.
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(News report from Issue No. 62, published on Oct. 25 2011)
OCT. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – It almost feels like déjà vu. Four years ago Badri Patarkatsishvili, one of Georgia’s wealthiest businessmen, began funding political parties opposing President Mikheil Saakashvili, who has been in power since 2003.
Now, the richest man in Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili, said on Oct. 7 2011 that he wants to set up a political party to break what he described as Mr Saakashvili’s near total monopoly on power.
Mr Ivanishvili, who lives a reclusive life in his native village in western Georgia, has the potential to be a dangerous opponent. For a start he is extremely wealthy. In its 2011 list of the world’s billionaires, Forbes magazine named Mr Ivanishvili at number 185 with an estimated fortune of $5.5b. He made most of his money in Russia in the 1990s in finance and now owns hotels, various real estate projects and a chain of chemists. He once paid $95m for a Picasso painting.
But there are also significant weaknesses. Firstly his close association with Russia, Georgia’s biggest foe, and secondly his dual French-Russian citizenship.
The National Agency of Public Registration has already said that the 55-year-old is not a Georgian citizen, banning him from funding any political party, and some officials have described him as a stooge of Russian PM Vladimir Putin.
Mr Patarkatsishvili stirred up Georgian politics and was at least partly to blame for triggering a state of emergency in 2007. The hasty character attacks on Mr Ivanishvili show that the authorities are wary of a repeat.
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(News report from Issue No. 60, published on Oct. 11 2011)
OCT. 10 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz security services arrested 11 people during a nationwide anti-terrorist operation just three weeks before a presidential election. The head of the state’s national security committee, Keneshbek Dushebayev, later said militant Islamists linked to al Qaeda planned to attack during the election.
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(News report from Issue No. 60, published on Oct. 11 2011)