DEC. 6 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s giant Caspian Sea oil field
Kashagan may start production at the end of 2012 slightly ahead of schedule, Kazakh oil minister Sauat Mynbayev said. Kashagan is the world’s biggest oil find in 40 years and key to Kazakhstan’s push to become a major global energy producer.
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(News report from Issue No. 18, published on Dec. 6 2010)
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NOV. 22 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Control of the Caspian Sea and its resources are worth arguing over.
It is the biggest inland body of water in the world, covering an area about the size of Germany, and dominates trade routes between Europe and Asia. The Caspian Sea also holds vast stocks of sturgeon which produce the lucrative caviar. Most tantalising, though, is the oil potential.
Its reserves are difficult to estimate but the US Energy Information Administration puts them at between 17b and 44b barrels of oil — equivalent to the oil reserves of Qatar at the bottom end of the scale and to the United States at the upper end.
The five states which border the Caspian Sea — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan — have argued over its ownership for years. On Nov. 18 in Baku the heads of these countries met for their third summit in eight years on how to divide the Caspian Sea and its treasures between them. Once again much was promised but little agreed.
Writing for Asia Times Online, Robert Cutler, a Canada-based academic, commented: “While the framework for a relatively minor security cooperation agreement was endorsed, the summit’s real significance lay in the agreements not reached and documents not signed.”
Before 1991, ownership of the Caspian Sea was less complex as it only needed an agreement between the Soviet Union and Iran. Now, with five countries, it’s far more difficult. Add into the mix the Caspian Sea’s emergence as an energy transit route to Europe and the debates heat up.
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(News report from Issue No. 16, published on Nov. 22 2010)
NOV. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – A judge in the United States dismissed charges of corruption and fraud against businessman James Giffen, who had been accused of giving $84m in bribes to Kazakh officials in exchange for oil concessions during the 1990s. Prosecutors linked senior members of the Kazakh government, including President Nursultan Nazarbayev, to the case.
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(News report from Issue No. 16, published on Nov. 22 2010)
NOV. 18 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The leaders of the five countries that border the Caspian Sea met for a summit in Baku to discuss the sea’s disputed ownership but they failed to sign any major agreements. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had arrived on Nov.17 for separate bilateral talks with Azerbaijan’s President.
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(News report from Issue No. 16, published on Nov. 22 2010)
NOV. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan accused Agip, a unit of Italian energy company Eni, of a $110m fraud at the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea by inflating development costs. Eni’s Agip declined to comment. It is the leader of the consortium developing Kashagan, Kazakhstan’s biggest oil field.
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(News report from Issue No. 16, published on Nov. 22 2010)
NOV. 3. 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s state oil and gas company Kazmunaigas started looking for potential buyers for its 11-year $1.5b Eurobond with an estimated yield of 6.75%. This is the first bond in a series of offerings that Kazakhstan hopes will raise $7.5b to invest back into oil and gas projects.
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
OCT. 27 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan is preparing a $1.2b tax claim against the Western-led venture developing the Karachaganak gas field, sources at the Kazakh oil ministry told news agencies. The Kazakh government is reportedly seeking a 10% stake in Karachaganak, the only major oil and gas project in Kazakhstan it does not hold a stake in.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 21 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan is still considering selling 20% of state oil company Kazmunaigas in an IPO next year, said Kairat Kelimbetov, head of Kazakh state conglomerate Samruk-Kazyna. Earlier this month he had ruled out an IPO and instead said Kazmunaigas would borrow up to $14b for its $20b investment programme.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazmunaigas, Kazakhstan’s state energy company, may borrow up to $14b to fund its $20b investment programme instead of raising cash through an IPO, CEO Kairgeldy Kabyldin said. Kazakhstan wants to speed up development of its energy sector and Mr Kabyldin had said Kazmunaigas was considering an IPO.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)