NOV. 1 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – In his first policy statement after winning a presidential election, Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Russia PM Almazbek Atambayev said the US will have to quit an airbase outside Bishkek when its lease expires in 2014. The airbase has been vital to NATO efforts in Afghanistan which also wind up in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)
SEPT. 6 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – After months of negotiations, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon announced on Sept. 2 that Russia would indeed extend the lease on its military bases in Tajikistan by 49 years.
Reuters also reported, without giving details, that Russian forces would once again patrol the Tajik-Afghan border — a deal Russia has been pushing for all year. The details still need to be thrashed out, including just how much Russia will pay for the bases, but the announcement was a significant milestone.
The deals secure Russia’s military might on the fringe of Central Asia where control has become increasingly important. NATO plans to withdraw from Afghanistan over the next couple of years and the Central Asian states have been worried about Taliban forces moving northwards.
Russia quit patrolling the Tajik-Afghan border in 2005 but has said throughout the year it wants to regain control to stem the drugs flowing from Afghanistan.
The Kremlin has also been thinking strategically about its military bases and has extended leases on large bases in Armenia and Ukraine. Its deployment in Tajikistan is one of its biggest with roughly 7,000 soldiers and hundreds of tanks and planes stationed there.
Both China and India have bolstered their economic, diplomatic and military reach in Central Asia over the last few years, so for Russia to secure its long-term hold on its military bases in Tajikistan represents a significant achievement.
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(News report from Issue No. 55, published on Sept. 6 2011)
JULY 25 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia and the US plan to hold their first joint military exercise by 2013, local media quoted Armenia’s defence ministry as saying, bolstering the two countries’ links. This year Armenia has signed a deal with Russia to extend a lease on a military base in and bolstered economic ties with Iran.
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(News report from Issue No. 50, published on July 27 2011)
JULY 6 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia formalised a deal with Armenia to extend a lease on perhaps its most important military base in the South Caucasus until 2044, Russian media reported. Thousands of Russian soldiers, aircraft and missiles will remain in the base at Gyumri, about 100km north of Yerevan. In the deal, Russia will supply military equipment to Armenia.
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(News report from Issue No. 47, published on July 6 2011)
MAY 9 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Six years after withdrawing its guards from the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, Russia wants to return.
The Kremlin feels Tajikistan cannot control its borders effectively and is worried about a wave of Islamic militants and drugs seeping through the country after NATO forces withdraw from neighbouring Afghanistan in 2014, sources in Moscow have told the media Tajikistan is already fighting Islamic militants and is one of the main transit routes for drugs leaving Afghanistan for Russia and Europe.
But there may be more at stake. Russia is competing with the United States and China for influence over Tajikistan and controlling the border with Afghanistan would give it major leverage. Not only is Tajikistan a major access point into and out of Afghanistan but its mountains, rivers and dams control a large proportion of the water supply for the other Central Asian states. Controlling water supplies in Central Asia, equates to power.
Russia maintains a large base in Tajikistan but its military presence there is far reduced from the 1990s and to re-position its soldiers on the border it first needs to win over Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon.
And, to say the least, Mr Rakhmon is sceptical of the benefits of the Russian border guards.
The WikiLeaks website recently published a US diplomatic cable written in December 2005 in which the ambassador quoted Mr Rakhmon describing how he had personally ordered the Russian border guards to leave. Mr Rakhmon was convinced the Russian border guards were plotting a coup.
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(News report from Issue No. 39, published on May 9 2011)
MAY 5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has re-started talks with Tajikistan on stationing 3,000 guards along the important Tajik-Afghan border, Reuters reported. Russia, the US and China are competing for influence in Central Asia. Russian soldiers patrolled the border until 2005.
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(News report from Issue No. 39, published on May 9 2011)
APRIL 28 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – On a trip to Turkey, Kyrgyz PM Almazbek Atambayev hinted he was looking beyond the US use of the Manas airbase. Manas, outside Bishkek, has become a major cog in the US resupply chain for its forces in Afghanistan. Mr Atambayev said he wanted to turn Manas, already an international airport, into a major global transit centre.
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(News report from Issue No. 38, published on May 2 2011)
APRIL 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s parliament scrapped a five-year agreement signed in 2006 that allowed the Russian military to cross its territory to resupply a base in Armenia. Since the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Russia has used other routes to re-supply its base in Armenia.
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(News report from Issue No. 37, published on April 25 2011)
MARCH 24 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A document released by the German parliament showed Germany had paid Uzbekistan for the use of a military base while EU sanctions were imposed in 2005-9. The EU imposed sanctions after Uzbek soldiers killed protesters in 2005. Germany had rented the base since 2002. Rights groups have said the West places strategic interests above human rights in Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 33, published on March 28 2011)
MARCH 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian news agencies quoted Kyrgyz PM Almazbek Atambayev as saying during a meeting with Russian PM Vladimir Putin that Kyrgyzstan was ready to sell 75% of its gas company, KyrgyzGas, to Russia. Russia and the US are competing for influence in Kyrgyzstan, where they each have an airbase.
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(News report from Issue No. 32, published on March 21 2011)