OCT.31/NOV. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as part of a tour of Central Asia. In Bishkek, Mr Kerry wanted to persuade the government that despite quitting its airbase, the US was still interested in Kyrgyzstan. In Dushanbe, Mr Kerry told the government to ease up on its crackdown of opposition parties.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
OCT. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Germany will close its base in Termez, south Uzbekistan, later this year, marking the final withdrawal of Western military forces from Central Asia, media reported quoting official sources.
With operations in neighbouring Afghanistan winding down, it had only ever been a matter of time before the German base at Termez was closed, although the announcement did come just nine months after Germany said it wanted to extend the lifespan of the base.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty quoted German military spokesman Dominik Wullers: “Termez right now is just a backup. We are not effectively using it right now, that’s the reason why we are closing it. Some [personnel] will be transferred to Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan where we have our base, while others will relocate to Germany.”
The US closed its airbase at Manas outside Bishkek last year and the French military has wound down operations in Dushanbe.
Some Uzbek analysts, though, said the withdrawal of Germany may be linked with Uzbekistan’s demand for a higher fee to rent the base. The Uzbek government had said the rental fee would double to 70m euro in 2016. In 2005, Germany had been paying Uzbekistan only 12.5 euro.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
OCT. 6 2015, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia said it will station attack helicopters at its base in Tajikistan, a strong sign the Kremlin believes the threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan to Central Asia is heightening.
A Russian Defence Ministry spokesman said Mi-24P gunships, heavily used during the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and Mi-8 MTV transport-combat helicopters will be stationed at the Ayni airbase, 30km outside Dushanbe.
Over the past week, the Taliban and US-backed forces belonging to the Afghan central government have been fighting for control of Kunduz on the Tajik-Afghan border. And this has worried Central Asian governments throughout the year.
A Dushanbe-based analyst who wished not to be named said: “The occupation of Kunduz by the Taliban has shaken Dushanbe. Tajik authorities know that they cannot handle any threat, be it domestic or external, without the help of Russia. For Rakhmon, the Kremlin is the guarantee of stability in Tajikistan.”
Tajik President Emmomli Rakhmon had been in Moscow the day before the Kremlin said it would send attack helicopters to Tajikistan.
And most people in Dushanbe welcomed Moscow’s help. Olim Shirinov, a Dushanbe resident, said: “Every new unit of Russian military equipment on Tajik soil is one more brick in the wall that guarantees stability in the country.”
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia and the US are right to be increasingly concerned about intensifying fighting in northern Afghanistan.
The question is what can they do about it, if anything?
This week, Russia said it was sending a batch of attack helicopters to its base in Tajikistan. Russia is clearly in a belligerent mood, as its air strikes in Syria have also shown.
For most ordinary Tajiks, as the Bulletin reports, the attack helicopters are welcome in the country, although it is not entirely clear when Russia would actually use them.
For the US, the priority is to protect its own. It has said it is going to spend $200m strengthening its embassy in Turkmenistan.
No doubt the current embassy needed an upgrade but don’t be fooled by the cleverly spun press releases.
The US is not spending $200m rebuilding its embassy to re-affirm its commitment to Turkmenistan. It is spending $200m rebuilding its embassy on the outskirts of Ashgabat because it is nervous and the strategy now is to prioritise protection over everything else. This will be an embassy with big walls and prison-style security cut off from the rest of Turkmenistan.
Both the Russian and the US moves are a response to the Taliban threat over the border and the radical Islamic threat internally.
These threats appear to be growing, although there is debate over just how strong IS recruitment really is in the region. Both Russia and the US and the rest of Central Asia will have to get used to them.
By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
SEPT. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A senior US military officer said he wanted US forces to increase the number of exercises they hold with Georgia. Media quoted Lieutenant General Ben Hodges saying he wanted to increase the “quantity” and “frequency” of drills between the two countries. The Georgia-US drills have irritated Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)
AUG. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Speaking at a ceremony to mark 24 years of independence from the Soviet Union, Uzbek president Islam Karimov said that he wouldn’t allow a foreign military base to be established in Uzbekistan and that the country would always maintain its neutrality. Germany has a military base in southern Uzbekistan
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(News report from Issue No. 246, published on Sept. 4 2015)
AUG. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A Russian military court sentenced soldier Valery Permyakov to 10 years in jail for desertion and then handed him over to Armenian officials who are building a case to try him for the stabbing to death of an entire family earlier this year. Permyakov had been serving at the Gyumri military base in Armenia, one of Russia’s largest overseas bases.
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(News report from Issue No. 243, published on Aug. 14 2015)
JULY 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Ufa, Russia, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov spoke unusually warmly about relations with Russia.
Mr Karimov veers from near- hostility towards Russia to extreme warmth.
Russian television showed Russian President Vladimir Putin greeting Mr Karimov.
“You haven’t been here on a state visit for a long time,” he said.
Mr Karimov shook his hand and replied: “Whatever disputes we may have, nobody can make Russia and Uzbekistan quarrel as we have common interests.”
Mr Karimov’s last state visit to Russia was in April 2013. Most Central Asia and South Caucasus leaders, other than those from Georgia and Turkmenistan, are semi-regular visitors to Moscow.
The Uzbek head of state’s manoeuvres are understandable.
Uzbekistan may be improving its relations with the West, especially with regards to allowing NATO countries to ship their military kit out of Afghanistan, but Russia is still the regional superpower and Mr Karimov needs its help economically as well as to bolster security along its porous southern border where he says the Taliban are massing.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
DUSHANBE, JULY 12/13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Indian PM Narendra Modi’s grand tour of Central Asia ended with a visit to Tajikistan, once again sparking the decade long rumour that India would lease the Ayni airbase near Dushanbe.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty website reported that Mr Modi and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon visited the Ayni military base 15km outside Dushanbe as well as a 50-bed military field hospital India helped set up last year, ramping up speculation an agreement was about to be signed.
Instead, the two leaders signed far less eye-catching deals on culture and education.
India has been looking to lease an airbase in Central Asia for years.
It helped renovate the air base at Ayni in 2003 but appears to have been blocked from renting the base, possibly by Russia or China, Tajikistan’s close allies.
Earlier on the trip in Russia, Mr Modi had signed a deal for India to join the China and Russia led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) military/economic group focused on Central Asia.
India wants to start competing with China for influence over Central Asia and also for access to its various energy and metal deposits.
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(News report from Issue No. 240, published on July 16 2015)
JULY 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s military started a two-week military exercise with NATO countries, including the US, at an airbase near Tbilisi. Much to the annoyance of Russia, Georgia is intent on joining NATO.
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(News report from Issue No. 239, published on July 9 2015)