JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s currency reserves dropped by 12.5% in 2014 to just under $2b, the head of the Central Bank, Tolkubek Abdygulov, was quoted by media as saying. The drop was due to Central Bank interventions to try to prop up the Kyrgyz som, under pressure from a falling Russian rouble.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The New York Times newspaper inadvertently highlighted the still relatively obscure nature of Central Asia by printing an article in which it referred to Kyrbekistan instead of Kyrgyzstan. Independent only since 1991, statehood and identity are important markers for Central Asian countries.
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
DEC. 27 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — With gas supplies limited this winter, Kyrgyzstan has been reverting back to coal to keep its electricity and heating on, media reported. Media reported that state-owned coalminers produced 1.5m tonnes of coal in the first 11 months of last year, up by 22% from a year earlier.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
JAN. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Currency woes in 2015 quickly translated into inflation across the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Kazakhstan can be singled out as the worst performer in this department as inflation grew by a staggering 13.6% in 2015.
It was only in November that the minister of economy Yerbolat Dossayev said inflation wouldn’t surpass 10% in 2015. He was clearly wrong.
Interestingly, food prices grew significantly in Kazakhstan (+10.9%), while in Kyrgyzstan it was precisely food items that kept inflation from going too high.
Kyrgyzstan’s 11-month inflation in 2015 was 6.8% overall, but food prices decreased by 4.8% (Jan. 5).
Geostat, the Georgian statistics service, said annual inflation amounted to 4.9% in December, a 0.6% deflation compared to the previous month driven by lower transport and fuel prices, another impact of low oil prices.
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(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)
JAN. 1 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — After a year long build up, Armenia joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The EaEU also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus. Kyrgyzstan will join in May. Critics of the project have said that it is a Kremlin power grab.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Membership to become political ahead of elections>>
DEC. 23 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan signed a deal that will make it the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) in May.
At a meeting in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the union, which from Jan. 1 includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia as well as Russia, would benefit from Kyrgyzstan’s membership.
“All the participants of this integration process are already experiencing its real benefits,” media quoted Mr Putin as saying.
“We are convinced that Armenia and Kyrgyzstan’s membership in the Eurasian [Economic] Union meets the key national interests of both countries.”
Many analysts, though, and people on the streets of Bishkek questioned whether there would be any real economic benefit. Instead, they said that Kyrgyzstan had joined the Eurasian Economic Union for political rather than economic reasons.
Kyrgyzstan is, largely reliant on Russia for economic and military support, but its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union is likely to become a political issue later this year in the run up to its parliamentary election, scheduled for October.
In an interview with Russian state-linked newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta before the official signing ceremony, Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev waived aside concern.
“When making decisions, we guide solely by economic expediency,” he said.
“This step will revive our industry, strengthen security, open borders with neighbouring countries, improve the standard of living of the people. Entry into this union opens up new opportunities for economic development.”
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Re-starting gas supplies could improve relations>>
DEC. 30 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan has restarted gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan, ending an eight-month embargo.
This is significant as Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan relations had seemingly been drifting from bad to worse over border rows, water management and energy issues. Analysts had identified the cross-border tension as potentially destabilising to the whole region.
Media quoted Tahir Alimov, deputy director in Osh for Gazprom Kyrgyzstan, as saying that the gas started
flowing once again from Uzbekistan at 3am on Dec. 30. The resumption of gas supplies will be a major boon to Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev.
Kyrgyzstan has been negotiating with other countries across Central Asia to make up for the shortfall in Uzbek deliveries but, realistically, Kyrgyz officials were always going to fall short of making up for the lack of Uzbek gas.
Uzbekistan had switched off the gas supply to Kyrgyzstan in April when the current deal expired. Uzbekistan said that Kyrgyzstan didn’t want to negotiate a new deal.
Kyrgyzstan said that Uzbekistan wanted too high a price. At the same time Russia’s Gazprom completed a deal to buy Kyrgyzstan’s gas company and it seems that it, and not the Kyrgyz government, was able to negotiate a new deal.
Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg said that Uzbekistan and a Switzerland-based Gazprom-owned company had renegotiated the deal.
Perhaps, Gazprom has acted as a peace-maker.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 16 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kloop news website in Kyrgyzstan said the authorities blocked access to it after it posted a video apparently showing young Kazakh children fighting for the radical IS group in Syria. The owners of the website accused the government of over-reacting and pandering to Kazakhstan which has decreed the video illegal.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alongside Armenia, Kyrgyzstan will finally join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 despite few analysts deeming it ready or suited to full membership.
Bishkek will sign accession documents on Dec. 23, although it could be May before it adopts the protectionist taxes slapped on goods from outside the union, Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbayev told journalists.
Eurasian Economic Union officials have even said they will allow Chinese goods “for domestic consumption” to enter Kyrgyzstan according to pre-existing Kyrgyz tariffs for an unspecified period of time, a concession that suggests other members view Kyrgyzstan’s membership as symbolic.
Kyrgyzstan first agreed in 2010 to enter a trade bloc with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan — the current members of the Customs Union which will morph into the Eurasian Economic Union next year — so it has been a long wait.
But Kyrgyzstan has an economy a tenth the size of Belarus’, an unresolved row over ownership of the Kumtor gold mine, its single largest industrial unit, and worries about rising inflation. This makes it a potential weak link.
Arkady Gladilov, editor of local analytical website polit.kg noted that Kyrgyzstan has had three prime ministers in the time it has been committed to joining the bloc. He said the government may have been dragging its feet over Eurasian Economic Union accession.
“Russia is facing a difficult time with sanctions, and Kyrgyzstan’s own picture is far from rosy. If I were them, I would probably do the same in their position,” he told the Conway Bulletin.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia increased the number of military planes at its base outside Bishkek, the eurasianet.org website reported. Quoting Russian media, eurasianet.org said Russia had moved five SU-25SM ground attack jets to Kant, the airbase. The US quit its airbase outside Bishkek earlier this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)