OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 20 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Thousands of supporters of a Kyrgyz party that narrowly missed out on representation in parliament after an election protested
throughout the week in Bishkek. The Butun Kyrgyzstan party, a nationalist grouping, says it has been robbed and has pledged to hold street rallies until the result is changed.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 10 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — An election in Kyrgyzstan designed to create Central Asia’s first parliamentary democracy failed to produce a majority winner. The five parties that won seats will now build a coalition. The Ata-Zhurt party, associated with deposed former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, won the most seats with 28 in the 120-seat parliament.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 7 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — After a revolution in April, Kyrgyzstan voted in a referendum on June 27 for a new Constitution that aims to shift the balance of power from the president to Parliament. Below are the main points from the constitution that should shape Kyrgyzstan’s government following a parliamentary election on Oct. 10, 2010:
– Parliament was enlarged to 120 seats from 90 seats. Each parliament is elected for five years under proportional representation. No party can hold more than 65 seats.
– A coalition has to form a government within 15 days of an election or the president can intervene.
– Political parties are banned from being formed on ethnic or religious grounds. The election code already stated women have to make up at least 30% of parties’ candidate lists.
– Members of the military, police and judiciary are not allowed to join a political party.
– The PM has control over the budget and fiscal policy.
– The president appoints key posts such as the Prosecutor-General, the head of the Central Bank, the head of the Supreme Court and the heads of the defence and security agencies but Parliament has varying degrees of oversight.
– The president signs legislation. He or she has the right to send proposed laws back to parliament but does not have a veto.
– The president is limited to a single 6 year term.
– The Supreme Court and not the Constitutional Court will interpret the Constitution.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
OCT. 1 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan is tense but stable ahead of an election on Oct. 10 intended to create Central Asia’s first parliamentary democracy, the OSCE said. Analysts said it was unlikely that any party would win a majority in the vote which an estimated 3,300 candidates from 29 different parties are contesting.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
SEPT. 24 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite indications that a deal had been made, Kyrgyzstan and Russia failed to finalise an agreement to allow Russian military bases to remain in Kyrgyzstan. However, both sides said it was only a matter of time before a new deal, expected to allow the bases to remain for another 49 years, was signed.
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(News report from Issue No. 9, published on Sept. 30 2010)
SEPT. 23 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia and Kyrgyzstan have agreed a new deal to keep four Russian military bases in the country, RIA Novosti news agency quoted a senior Russian military officer as saying. RIA Novosti did not give details but said it will be signed on Sept. 24. The United States also has a base in Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 23 2010)
SEPT. 15 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in south Kyrgyzstan gave an Uzbek rights activist and 7 other defendants a life jail sentence for killing a policeman during ethnic clashes in June. Human rights groups said the trial had been unfair and the defendants had been beaten.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
SEPT. 13 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s President Roza Otunbayeva replaced several top judicial and law enforcement officials. Ms Otunbayeva has said she is worried about violence at the Oct. 10 parliamentary election. She replaced the Prosecutor-General, the Interior Minister and the head of the Supreme Court.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)