DEC. 13 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament ratified an agreement to allow Russia’s airbase to remain for another 15 years with an option for a possible 5 year extension, media reported. Under the agreement, Russia will pay $4.5m per year for the airbase, a torpedo testing site on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul and a seismology centre.
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(News report from Issue No. 117, published on Dec. 14 2012)
DEC. 13 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Maksim Bakyiev, son or former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, appeared for his first court hearing in London over an extradition request from the US where authorities have accused him of masterminding a complex insider dealing system, media reported. Mr Bakiyev fled to London after a revolution in 2010.
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(News report from Issue No. 117, published on Dec. 14 2012)
DEC. 10 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Perhaps it was just scare-mongering, but Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia’s National Security Council and a close adviser to president Vladimir Putin, said that his staff were monitoring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for signs of any re-emergence of the so-called colour revolutions, Russian media reported.
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(News report from Issue No. 117, published on Dec. 14 2012)
DEC. 7 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – It is dry, that’s for sure, but Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index is also a decent benchmark of how countries are dealing with corruption in their systems — an issue that foreign investors, local businessmen, politicians and economists follow closely.
The 2012 edition makes for interesting reading on Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Topping the table for the region is, again, Georgia at 51st place in the 176 country list. Armenia is next at 105th position, alongside the likes of the Philippines and Mexico.
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan occupy 133 position with Russia and then follows Kyrgyzstan (154) and Tajikistan (157). Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan prop up the table in 170th position. Behind them lie only Somalia, North Korea, Sudan, Afghanistan and Myanmar.
And the big changes from last year? Well, Georgia continues to rise through the ranks, it was placed in 64th position last year, and Armenia has also jumped forward, from 129th in 2011. Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan have also improved their rankings, slightly.
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have remained fairly consistent.
By comparison, though, the biggest faller from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region was Kazakhstan which fell 13 places in the rankings from 120th position in 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 116, published on Dec. 7 2012)
DEC. 4 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – PMs of members of the Russia, China lead Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which focuses on Central Asia, met in Bishkek. China’s Wen Jiabao also met privately with Kyrgyz PM, Zhantoro Satybaldiyev. They discussed China’s future investment in Kyrgyzstan, and a potential trans Central Asia pipeline.
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(News report from Issue No. 116, published on Dec. 7 2012)
DEC. 3 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz police arrested the former head of its national resource agency, Uchkunbek Tashbayev, for bribe taking and embezzlement, media reported. The case, once again, demonstrates corruption in Kyrgyzstan. Mining is one of the few sectors in Kyrgyzstan that generates a sizable income for the economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 116, published on Dec. 7 2012)
NOV. 26 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Touted as an emerging superpower, India has still appeared sluggish in exerting its influence over Central Asia.
India’s moves in the region had been either incremental, such as talks with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on military cooperation, or long term, such as the TAPI pipeline which will, if everything goes to plan, pump gas from Turkmenistan across Afghanistan and Pakistan to India.
This week, though, India took a giant leap forward in cementing real influence in the region. US energy company ConocoPhillips said it intended to sell its 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil field development project not to Kazakh state energy company KazMunaiGas but to India’s state-run ONGC.
This is significant as KazMunaiGas would have had the first option to buy the stake. Instead, KazMunaiGas appears to have stood aside to allow ONGC in, although this could still change. It’s going to cost ONGC a reported $5b but with it comes significant influence. Kashagan is Kazakhstan’s most high-profile and prestigious energy project.
Websites have also reported that India wants to invest directly into Turkmenistan’s gas fields. If confirmed, this would be more evidence of India’s stirring ambition in the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 115, published on Nov. 30 2012)
NOV. 26-30 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy representative, completed a whirlwind tour of Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. On her travels she met with opposition leaders as well as the heads of states. Her office said she discussed bilateral cooperation as well as human rights.
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(News report from Issue No. 115, published on Nov. 30 2012)
NOV. 29 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Villagers in south Kyrgyzstan have attacked and set fire to a camp used by geologists working for a Russian gold mining company, Reuters reported, dealing another blow to foreign investor confidence. Local people have previously attacked foreign mining operations, blaming them for environmental damage.
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(News report from Issue No. 115, published on Nov. 30 2012)
NOV. 19 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Instability stalks Kyrgyzstan. It’s prone to revolution, the rule of law is weak, corruption is deeply-rooted and ethnic tensions simmer just below the surface.
Under-pinning all this is its relatively impoverished economy. Alongside Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan is the poorest country in Central Asia, with little arable land or natural resources.
All this makes the Kumtor gold mine in the mountains of eastern Kyrgyzstan so important. It’s owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold (which is, itself, part owned by the Kyrgyz government). The mine makes up around 12% of the country’s annual GDP.
That’s why the announcement earlier this month by Centerra that the gold reserves at the mine are actually more than 50% larger than originally thought was so important (Nov. 8).
Centerra went further and said the life-span of the mine would be extended by another five years to 2023. Good news, indeed, for Kyrgyzstan.
Less positive was an announcement by the Central Bank that it expects inflation to be higher in 2013 than first thought. It now forecasts inflation in 2013 at around 11%, up from an earlier forecast of 8%. Rising food prices have created the inflationary pressure — a bad economic sign not just for Kyrgyzstan but for the entire Central Asia region.
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(News report from Issue No. 114, published on Nov. 23 2012)