MAY 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The World Bank said it expects Kazakh GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, a drop of 0.5% on a previous estimate. It said growth rates would rise in 2016 to 2.8% and to 3.9% in 2017. A fall in global oil prices and a drop in the Russian rouble have hit C.Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – En route to Moscow for the 70th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, China’s President Xi Jinping visited Astana. Official media said the two presidents affirmed their close ties.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Around 140 people working for the oil services company KazStroyService have gone on strike in west Kazakhstan demanding an increase in wages, media reported. Kazakhstan is sensitive to strikes. In 2011, 16 people died during fighting between protesters and police at a strike in west Kazakhstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh Central Bank has created a $700m fund to help people pay their mortgages, a move designed to ease Kazakhstan’s mountain of bad consumer debt.
Banks in Kazakhstan have one of the highest ratios of non-performing loans in the world, a legacy of the 2008/9financial crisis. Now, with a new financial crisis linked to the drop in global energy prices and a sharp fall in the performance of the Russian economy, also hitting Kazakhstan’s mortgage holders, policy makers have been looking for ways to ease the burden.
Low-income households are the principal target of the measure, according to official sources. Families at risk will be able to access new credit at advantageous rates, in order to pay off their outstanding bill.
Around 20,000 loans obtained between 2004 and 2009 should be affected by this measure. The largest contribution will go to Kazkommertsbank, which will receive $205m and refinance the debt of 12,500 borrowers.
The rationale is simple. Policymakers have argued that people taking out mortgages between 2004-9 were relatively uneducated in the practise and may have been mis-sold a product or taken out debt that they could not finance.
Most mortgages during this period were also taken out in US dollars. The
Kazakh tenge has dropped markedly against the US dollar since then, making the loans harder to service.
Some analysts, though, have questioned the spirit of the measure.
Quoted on Forbes.kz, financial analyst Murat Temirkhanov said: “The word ‘refinancing’ has little to do with this measure. It should be described as a restructuring, i.e. an exchange of bad loans for cheap money from the state.”
Still, the new measure has the potential to revive the financial market in Kazakhstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 11/12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) laid the groundwork for more collaboration in the financial sector with a couple of deals.
At a meeting in the UAE, the Dubai International Financial Centre and the Kazakh Central Bank agreed to exchange expertise and coordinate strategies, while Nasdaq Dubai and the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) inked an agreement to link their financial instruments.
Luca Anceschi, professor of Central Asian Studies at Glasgow University said: “These new financial links between Almaty and Dubai open another avenue besides construction and trade in non-state sectors.”
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan imported goods worth 6.3% less in March 2015 compared to March 2014, media reported quoting the Central Bank, further evidence, if it was needed, of the economic stagnation that has hit the region. Exports were down 19.5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev said the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union had a strong future despite current trade problems. Mr Nazarbayev made the comments after meeting Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Kazakhstan and Russia have erected trade barriers over the past few months.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
APRIL 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Apparently worried about people defaulting on mortgage payments, the Kazakh Central Bank has set up a 130b tenge ($700m) fund. Kazakh media said the Central Bank will loan cash to commercial banks who will then help people who took out mortgages, possibly in dollars, between 2004 and 2009.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan banned poultry products from Russia after the Russian ministry of agriculture identified an outbreak of Bird Flu on the Caspian Sea near the Kazakh border.
Some analysts and media pundits, though, said Kazakhstan’s speedy ban on poultry goods from Russia was an escalation of a trade war.
Although both Kazakhstan and Russia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Kremlin-led club supposed to smooth trade in the region, the fall in the value of the Russian rouble has increased tension. Businesses in Kazakhstan have been lobbying the government to impose barriers against the now far-cheaper goods from Russia.
It has banned oil-product imports as well as butter, chocolate, sweets and mayonnaise to defend jobs and companies. In retaliation, Russia has banned flour and dairy products from Kazakhstan.
Both governments have denied they are involved in a trade war and have instead insisted that various bans have been triggered by health concerns.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
MAY 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – En route to Moscow for celebrations for the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans a stop in Astana to meet Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, media reported. His stopover highlights the close Kazakhstan-China relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)