APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan and Belarus plan to set up a joint venture for cotton products, news agencies reported quoting a senior Belarusian official after a meeting with Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov in Ashgabat. Turkmenistan is looking for ways to diversify its economy from energy.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Already two years in the works, the law on “foreign agents” might be ready for approval by the Kyrgyz parliament within the next couple of months, according to the latest public statements.
If approved by parliament, the bill would label as “foreign agents” all non-governmental organisations that receive foreign capital for their activities.
The law is similar to one brought in by Russia’s parliament a few years ago and has triggered an outcry from NGOs in Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan is also particularly dependent on NGOs.
In March, a parliamentary committee approved the draft law and sent it to parliament. The main proponent, Nurkamil Madaliyev, of the conservative Ar-Namys party justified his position stating that “many local non-profits are interfering in the political life of the country” and foreign funding is crucial to their activities.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ukraine rejected Georgia’s request to extradite former president Mikheil Saakashvili, media reported. The government in Kiev, which is locked in a battle for control of eastern Ukraine with Russia, has appointed Mr Saakashvili as a special adviser. He is wanted in Georgia for alleged crimes.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – People in Kazakhstan, it appears, are still rushing to buy cheap Russian goods.
Official data showed that in February Kazakhs across the country bought 3.5 times more roubles than they did a year earlier.
In some areas, the rise was even bigger. In Mangistau, western Kazakhstan, the increase between February 2014 and February 2015 was nearly 19 times, Almaty the increase was 18 times and in Kyzylorda region of southern Kazakhstan the increase was nearly 35 times.
Russian goods have become far cheaper over the last few months because of the near 50% devaluation of the Russian rouble. Most Central Asian states have also devalued their own currencies but Kazakhstan has said that it will resist a sudden cut.
It knocked 20% off the value of its tenge currency last year and sees defending it as the best way to retain credibility.
Still, analysts have said that it is only a matter of time before Kazakhstan relents and cuts the tenge by up to 40%.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
MARCH 31 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev has rounded off an 8-day tour of European capitals, on which he signed various economic deals and tried to drum up support for action against Islam extremism.
Mr Atambayev pitched the tour as his attempt to promote his country and attract investors despite economic conditions in Central Asia deteriorating further.
In Austria, Belgium, France, Switzerland and Germany he met with the heads of government and royals.
“I am sure that there will be a whole new stage of relations between Kyrgyzstan and the European Union,” he said in Brussels (March 30).
Europe, generally, views Kyrgyzstan as a relative beacon of parliamentary democracy in Central Asia, a region more closely associated with autocratic leaders.
Over the past few years, though, Kyrgyzstan has moved steadily towards Russia. It plans to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union later this year.
Importantly, Mr Atambayev also received various promises for financial support. Switzerland agreed to allocate 74m francs ($77m) to develop the health sector and support small and medium enterprises.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A parliamentary inquiry in Armenia said the government subsidised gas for consumers between 2011 and 2013 ahead of a controversial buyout of the pipeline network by Russia’s Gazprom.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) said the government had previously denied it was subsidising gas imports from Russia.
The Armenian government was desperate both to retain support ahead of an election and to write off a $300m debt to Gazprom. To do this, it needed the public’s support to sell the pipeline distribution network.
The inquiry’s findings will pile more pressure on Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan whose administration has become increasing unpopular.
The RFE/RL report also said Gazprom cut the gas price when Armenia agreed to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“The commission has found documentary evidence of unpublicized Russian-Armenian agreements that gradually raised the gas price from $180 to $270 per thousand cubic meters in 2011-2013,” RFE/RL reported.
“Gazprom cut the price to almost $190 per thousand after Armenia agreed to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in late 2013.”
This is yet more evidence that Russia pressured Armenia into joining the EEU.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 31 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov will fly to Seoul for talks with his South Korean counterpart Park Geun-hye on April 10, a meeting that will underline improved relations. South Korean companies, including LG and Hyundai, have won major contracts in Turkmenistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
APRIL 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia used its control of gas supplies to Armenia to pressure the government into joining its Eurasian Economic Union, a parliamentary inquiry has said.
The inquiry said Russia increased gas prices to Armenia until it agreed to join the Eurasian Economic Union in 2013.
The findings are strong evidence that Russia uses its economic leverage over Central Asia and the South Caucasus for political gain.
Also in the past week, Russia approved a $1 billion development fund for Kyrgyzstan. This, again, appears linked to Kyrgyzstan’s entry to the Eurasian Economic Union later this year.
The West has long said the Kremlin’s aim in the region is to coerce governments into doing its bidding.
In Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, it has found vulnerable partners. Both are relatively poor with few natural resources. They both host Russian military bases and are reliant on Russian business and remittances from workers living in Russia for growth.
Importantly too, Gazprom owns the gas pipeline network in both Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. This has often been the choke point. Controlling a country’s gas supply gives Russia huge power.
There is one other major similarity between Armenia and Kyrgyzstan regarding membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. Bulletin correspondents in both countries report that most ordinary people, and also many of the politicians, don’t really want to join the group. Instead, they feel compelled to.
Belarus and Kazakhstan, both far larger economies, are also members of the EEU.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – On a trip to Beijing, Kazakh PM Karim Massimov signed deals with his Chinese counterpart, Li Keqiang, worth $23.6b. The deals covered a range of industries from steel and glass production to oil refining and hydropower. China and Kazakhstan have increased cooperation in the past few years.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has approved a law that will create a Russia-Kyrgyzstan development fund worth $1b, media reported. Kyrgyzstan has agreed to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union later this year and it is likely that the fund’s creation was linked to Kyrgyz membership of the group.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)