Tag Archives: international relations

Kazakhstan is ready to supply gas to China, president says

JULY 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – President Nursultan Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan is ready to supply gas to China, a move that would further improve the two countries’ energy ties. Mr Nazarbayev met with Wang Yilin, chairman of China’s state-owned energy company CNPC, in Astana. Mr Nazarbayev hailed CNPC’s role in boosting Kazakhstan’s energy sector with its multi-billion dollar investments over the past two decades. Kazakhstan currently hosts a gas pipeline that pumps Turkmen gas to China.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Rouhani to visit Azerbaijan

JULY 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani will visit Azerbaijan in August, official media reported, for talks likely to focus on energy and transport issues. The neighbours share a 756km border and jurisdiction over the Caspian Sea. Mr Rouhani last visited Baku in November 2014, before a raft of international sanctions were lifted.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Kerry flies into Tbilisi to pledge support for Georgia

TBILISI, JULY 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, flew to Tbilisi ahead of a NATO meeting in Warsaw to thank Georgia for its support for US military action in Iraq and Afghanistan and back its territorial integrity.

This was Mr Kerry’s first visit to the South Caucasus as Secretary of State, highlighting how the US’ focus during Barack Obama’s second administration has shifted from Central Asia and the South Caucasus region once it pulled most of its military out of Afghanistan. Instead, Mr Kerry has been embroiled in the collapse of Syria, a resurgent Russia and a war in Ukraine.

Georgia had been hoping for a strong show of support ahead of the NATO summit, the military alliance it has been pushing hard to join.

But Mr Kerry stopped short of openly declaring support for Georgia’s NATO membership and instead promised to support for Georgia’s territorial integrity.

“The United States stands firm in its commitment to Georgia’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders,” he said at a news conference with Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili.

“Russia’s occupation and militarization of parts of Georgia’s territory are unacceptable.”

Russia has recognised the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two breakaway Georgian regions.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Putin ratifies oil supply deal with Tajikistan

JULY 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified an oil supply agreement with Tajikistan signed in 2013. The deal will allow Tajikistan to import oil under a duty-free scheme. Tajikistan, however, cannot re-export the oil supplied by Russia. Russia is one of the main suppliers of oil for Tajikistan. The deal increases Russia’s influence over Tajikistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Comment: US foreign policy in C.Asia & the S.Caucasus

JULY 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — John Kerry’s visit to Georgia on Wednesday was the first visit by a US Secretary of State to the South Caucasus in four years. And, importantly, the visit was tied not to the region as a whole, but to a NATO summit that Mr Kerry will attend in Poland today, July 8.

Mr Kerry has only visited our patch once, in November 2015, when he toured all five Central Asian states.

This compares to the frequent visits of his predecessor and now presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who visited the Central Asia and South Caucasus region four times, perhaps because of a stronger US interest in Afghanistan and the need to show support to South Caucasus countries over their relationship with Russia and Europe.

President Barack Obama’s second term, which started in 2013, has been marked by a slow disengagement from the region. This included giving up the Manas air base near Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in mid-2014, once the main jumping off point for forces heading to Afghanistan but not needed once US engagement dropped off. In July 2015, the State Department also awarded jailed Kyrgyzstani human rights defender Azimzhan Askarov a human rights prize, prompting an official complaint from Kyrgyzstan.

The NATO-driven engagement in Georgia also waned, especially after President Mikhail Saakashvili lost power in 2013. Georgia is now possibly the furthest it’s ever been from joining the military alliance.

US diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan have also worsened, after President Ilham Aliyev’s re-election in 2013 and the increasingly harsh crackdown on political opposition and media freedom, including expelling the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from Baku.

And Mr Kerry’s demeanor has also betrayed lack of interest. Soon after his appointment, in Feb. 2013, he referred to Kyrgyzstan as “Kyrzakhstan” at a press conference. Both the US diplomatic attitude and resource allocation show that it is losing ground in Central Asia and the South Caucasus to Russia, China and Iran, who have proved able to pay for the soft power in cash, investing in infrastructure, financial and energy projects.

Next year the State Department plans to allocate around $240m to the region, around 1/3 more than in 2015. Still, more funding does not necessarily mean more engagement.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Obama and Putin discuss Azerbaijan and Armenia

JULY 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin said they would intensify efforts to resolve the stand-off between Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed forces over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The White House said Mr Obama and Mr Putin discussed the South Caucasus during a wide-ranging telephone conversation.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Briefing: Georgia’s EU Association Agreement

JULY 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> So, this EU Association Agreement that Georgia officially entered into on July I, is it a big deal? What will it change for Georgia?

>>Yes, it is important. Basically it gives Georgian businesses more access to EU markets. In return for this, the EU has insisted that Georgia improves certain areas of its laws and regulations to bring them more in line with EU standards. This mainly involves technical business issues such as health and safety standards and workers rights but also includes wider issues such as democratic reforms.

You have to keep in mind that this deal was signed two years ago, although it was only officially implemented on July 1, so many of the reforms have been ongoing.

>> I see. Why does Georgia even need to boost its access to EU markets?

>>Georgia needs better access to EU markets simply because they have become more important. It is exporting more and more products to the EU, mainly fruit, wine and water. Georgia had been reliant on former Soviet states as its main trading partner but that dynamic has shifted.

>> And on Georgia’s EU aspirations, do they really think that they can join the EU?

>>They certainly want to. Georgia has pursued an overtly pro-Western agenda since Mikheil Saakashvili was voted into power in 2004. Realistically, Georgia has a long, long way to go before anybody is really going to take their application to join the EU seriously.

What they really want next is a deal of visa liberalisation for Georgians visiting Europe for a short period of time.

The government had been receiving encouraging signs. Unfortunately for them, though, the current EU migration crisis has turned public opinion and pressured governments into restricting any potential free-movement deals.

Earlier this year European politicians warned Georgia, and Ukraine, that visa liberalisation was unlikely.

>> Are any of the other former Soviet countries also going down this road?

>>The three Baltic states became full EU members in 2004. They are also NATO members. Of the rest Ukraine has also signed an Association Agreement with the EU. Armenia was offered a similar deal but instead opted to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union, trade bloc that also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

>> And finally Brexit. Where would we be without talking Britain’s vote to leave the EU? Has Brexit change anything for Georgia? Is it relevant?

>>No. As fascinating and mesmerising as Brexit is, it’s not important to Georgia, unless Brexit breaks the entire EU project.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Merkel to visit Kyrgyzstan

JULY 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit Kyrgyzstan on July 13-14 on her first-ever visit to the Central Asian country. President Almazbek Atambayev’s press office said that the leaders will discuss cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Germany. The last timeMs Merkel metMr Atambayev was in Istanbul in May, on the sidelines of a UN-sponsored meeting.

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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)

Turkmenistan agrees barter deal with Iran

JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran and Turkmenistan have agreed a barter deal which significantly boosts their cooperation, media reported. According to Iranian media reports, Turkmenistan will export around $30b worth of gas to north Iran over the next 10 years in exchange for $30b of technical assistance. The two neighbours have been developing their cooperation over the past few years, often through barter agreements.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Mudslide blocks Russia-Georgia trade routes

JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – A major mudslide has blocked one of the most important trade routes between Georgia and Russia for more than a week, media reported. The mudslide on June 23 at the Upper Lars checkpoint is especially important for Armenia. It is the only major route linking Russia and Armenia. Armenia is largely reliant on goods being imported in from Russia. It has decent relations with Iran to the south but poor relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)