Tag Archives: international relations

Comment: SCO expansion should not threaten the West, says Pantucci

MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has achieved remarkably little in its decade plus life.

Established formally in 2001, it grew out of a regional grouping aimed at seeking to define China’s borders with the former Soviet Union. Over time, it has expanded beyond its immediate neighbourhood to include countries as distant at Belarus and Sri Lanka as ‘dialogue partners’.

The current push to welcome both India and Pakistan is likely to further test the organisation’s already limited capability. The practical implications for Central Asia are unlikely to be dramatic, though in the longer term it may help bind Central and South Asia closer together and foster a greater sense of community across the Eurasian heartland.

In practical terms, the SCO has always been a fairly limited organisation. Seen initially by Russia as a way of controlling Chinese activity in Central Asia, for Beijing it has provided a useful umbrella under which to pursue their stealthy expansion in the region. For Central Asian powers, it provided another format in which to engage their larger neighbours. While the primary thrust of its activity has been in the security space, China has regularly sought to push it in an economic direction.

Yet, at the same time, all of the countries involved have largely pursued their own national interests through other pathways. The most recent demonstration was the establishment by Beijing of the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM). Focused on managing the security threats from Afghanistan, the QCCM in many ways replicates a function which one would have expected the SCO to deliver.

The addition of Pakistan and India to the grouping is unlikely to change this dynamic.

All of the nations involved in the SCO will continue to function through their own bilateral and other multilateral engagements. But it will offer another forum in which India and Pakistan are obliged to interact and will also help further tie Central and South Asia together. These ties have been growing for some time. Kazakhstan has expressed an interest in participating in the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Indian President Narendra Modi visited Central Asia last year.

If India and Pakistan join the SCO, it will further help tie them together.

By Raffaello Pantucci, director of International Security Studies at the London-based Royal United Service Institute (RUSI).

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Kyrgyzstan relaxes Iranian visa rules

MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan said that it had simplified visa rules for Iranians, matching a trend in the region. Iran and Kyrgyzstan have been boosting trade, diplomatic and tourist links. Georgia and Armenia have already scrapped visa requirements for Iranians and other countries are also relaxing rules. Iran is seen as an important economic driver for the region, especially since some sanctions were lifted last year.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

 

Azerbaijani President meets Hollande in Paris

MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev was in Paris to meet with French President Francois Hollande, a week after his foe Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan also travel to the Elysee Palace. The meeting was framed around ongoing talks to find a permanent peace for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed rebels have officially been at war over since the early 1990s. A UN ceasefire has held a shaky peace since 1994. There were no particular deals announced at the meeting.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Russia wants Armenia-Turket detente

MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with Armenian media, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that Russia would help Turkey and Armenia patch up their differences. Relations between Armenia and Turkey are strained over a row over an alleged genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turks at the end of the Second World War. Russia is Armenia’s biggest patron and is now also on decent terms with Turkey.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Russia to take some soldiers from Georgia’s breakaway region

TBILISI, MARCH 13/14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia agreed to absorb some South Ossetian army units into its military, cementing its control over the Georgian breakaway region.

The announcement, which has been in the making for two years, comes only a few weeks after Russia held its annual military exercise in South Ossetia, manoeuvres guaranteed to draw an angry response from Georgia only nine years since the two neighbours fought a brief war over the rebel region.

Under the military amalgamation plan, members of the better trained South Ossetian units will be able to switch to the Russian army.

The Kremlin simply said Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed “The Order of Inclusion of Certain Units of the Armed Forces of South Ossetia in the Russian Armed Forces.”

In the Georgia-Russia war of 2008, South Ossetian militia were considered to be fierce but ragged. They were praised for holding off Georgia’s army from capturing Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, for a crucial 24 hours before Russian reinforcements reached them. But they were also regarded as ill-disciplined and blamed for burning Georgian houses, murder and looting.

Tension around Georgia’s border with South Ossetia is still high.

Since the 2008 war, Russia has officially recognised South Ossetia as an independent state. Only a handful of countries have followed its lead, notably the Pacific Ocean nation of Nauru, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

South Ossetia has always said that its ultimate aim is to join Russia and the move by the Russian army to absorb some its soldiers takes it a step closer.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Armenia to open consulate in Kurdistan

MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia will open a consulate in Ebril, the capital of Kurdish Iraq, media reported, highlighting what appears to be a drive to boost relations across the Middle East. Media said that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had signed the order to open the consulate after PM Karen Karapetian had said that he wanted to boost relations with the region. Armenia is also strengthening ties with Iran.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Armenian leader flies to Paris for talks with Hollande over Nagorno-Karabakh

YEREVAN, MARCH 8 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan flew to Paris to meet with French President Francois Hollande to sign deals on tourism and educational issues as well as discuss the ongoing simmering conflict around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Earlier this month Azerbaijan said five of its soldiers had been killed in the region and Armenia-back rebels said one of its soldiers had been killed. This was the worst outbreak of fighting since April last year when Azerbaijani tanks rolled into the region controlled by Armenia-back rebels. At least 100 people were killed in the fighting last year.

In an interview with AFP news agency ahead of his trip to Paris, Mr Sargsyan blamed Azerbaijan for the fighting.

“The danger of a new war is constant and will persist until Azerbaijan is persuaded that there is no military solution to the conflict,” he said.

Azerbaijan disputes this and has blamed Armenian rebels for the war in the early 1900s that and was only stopped by a UN ceasefire.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)

Kyrgyzstan hosts Eurasian presidency

MARCH 7 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan hosted its first meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, part of the system that runs the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), as it officially took over the rotating presidency of the trade bloc. Kyrgyzstan’s presidency of the EEU comes at a time when the organisation has become increasingly unpopular, especially in Kyrgyzstan, over sluggish economic growth rates. The Eurasian Intergovernmental Council is attended by PMs.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)f

 

Kazakhstan to host another round of Syria talks

MARCH 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry confirmed that Astana would host another round of talks aimed at ending a civil war in Syria on March 14/15. This is the third round of talks in Astana this year, lead by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Delegates representing both Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and Syrian rebels are expected to attend. The US has only previously participated as an observer.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)

Azerbaijani president travels to Iran

MARCH 5 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev flew to Tehran for talks with his Iranian counterpart President Hassan Rouhani in which both men reaffirmed their commitment to completing a freight railway link between India and Europe. The plan is to ship goods from India to an Iranian port and then load the kit on to freight trains that will run across Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. As reported, the first freight train travelled between Azerbaijan and Iran on March 5.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)f